Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 9:41 PM   Moonset 6:47 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS66 KHNX 250940 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 240 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

1. A High Wind Warning continues for the Mojave Desert Slopes and a Wind Advisory for the Kern County Mountains through 11 pm on Friday.

2. A cooling trend to jest below seasonal normals lasting through Friday.

3. The next storm system will impact Central California Friday with mountain snow, foothills rain, and chance of valley thunderstorms.

4. A warming trend begins on Sunday and lasts through the week ahead with dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

The upper level wave continues to move off to the east into the Desert Southwest. On the surface a low pressure center over south central Nevada and high off the California coast will maintain a very tight pressure gradient over the Kern County Mountains. This gradient is expected to tighten up throughout the day and continue through Friday night. The PoE of 60 mph is 80 to near 100% for the Mojave Slopes focused on Highway 58 and Highway 14. The probability of exceeding 70 mph is 20-30% near the intersections of the aforementioned highways. The surrounding Kern County Mountains PoE of 45 mph remains 80 to near 100% through the same period as the warning. The current timing and alignment of the warning and advisory is very reasonable for the event. Areas of blowing dust are probable for the Slopes area however the reduction in visibility to less than 1/2 mile is near zero percent.

On Friday an upper wave in the the northwest flow slides down through the Golden State. The decrease in upper level heights and lapse rates along with convective energy increase provides the probability of thunderstorms for the Sierra and San Joaquin Valley from early afternoon through the early evening hours. The probabilities of thunder are as follows:

Tioga Pass 19% Yosemite Valley 20% Wawona 21% Oakhurst 20% Merced 11% Madera 11% Shaver Lake 20% Fresno 12% Grant Grove 18% Visalia 12% Hanford 9% Lemoore NAS 8% Delano 9% Bakersfield 8% Kernville 12% Tehachapi 7% Lebec 7% Pine Mountain Club 6%

Saturday northwest flow continues over the area and slowly transitions to zonal westerly flow by Tuesday. The zonal flow continues through next Thursday. The long and short of it a warming trend back into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday for the San Joaquin Valley. Here is a PoE table of 80 degree or better temperatures this week:

SUN MON TUE WED THU Merced 16% 21% 61% 46% 16% Madera 21% 36% 66% 51% 21% Fresno 51% 66% 86% 71% 36% Reedley 11% 31% 66% 56% 21% Lemoore NAS 41% 61% 76% 66% 31% Hanford 41% 61% 81% 71% 36% Visalia 41% 66% 86% 71% 36% Delano 41% 66% 81% 81% 36% Bakersfield 26% 56% 76% 71% 36% Edwards AFB 51% 81% 91% 86% 51%

The six to ten day CPC forecast is for normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for the region. For reference the normal temperatures and precipitation for the second week of May are in Fresno: High 81, Low 56, and precipitation 0.01 of an inch. Bakersfield: High 83, Low 57, and precipitation 0.01 of an inch.

The eight to 14 day CPC forecast takes the temperatures to below average levels for Central California and near normal precipitation, which is near zero for mid May, for the region.

AVIATION
A low VFR ceiling will continue UNTL 16Z-21Z clearing from north to south in the SJV. Then VFR and unlimited after 21Z. The Sierra and Kern County Mountains may have localized mountain obscurations. The Kern County and Mojave Desert has a high probability of surface wind sustaining above 30 KTS through the TAF period.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 04/24/2024 14:25 EXPIRES: 04/25/2024 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ331-333-334-337- 339.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Edwards AFB, CA,