Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wanchese, NC

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 1010 AM Fri...No major changes needed with am update.
Still expecting max T's near climo, or even a degree or two below, but much drier air so quite pleasant today with high near 80 for most.

Prev disc
As of 7 AM Fri
High pressure will build in from the west today, with mostly sunny skies expected. As the high builds in the pressure gradient will tighten due to strong low pressure over the western Atlantic, and winds will gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Thicknesses will be much lower due to the upper level trough still overhead, and high temperatures will be pleasant but below normal, and mostly in upper 70s to around 80.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 7 AM Fri...High pressure builds closer tonight, with mostly clear and quiet conditions expected. An enhanced gradient will keep conditions mixed for the first half of the night, but some areas could decouple early tomorrow morning just before sunrise. Despite the winds early, temperatures will drop into the low 50s inland overnight, and low 60s along the coast. If there is more widespread decoupling, some upper 40s are possible inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 3 AM Fri...

Key Messages: - Seasonably cooler through the first half of weekend with weak high pressure overhead. Pattern returns to unsettled early next week as a weak boundary sets up across the Southeastern U.S. coast.

Saturday/Saturday Night: Anomalous upper low set up over New England begins to push eastward Saturday, but west/northwest flow is forecast to keep highs below average in the mid-to-upper 70s. High pressure centered over the upper Midwest noses in Saturday night, with lows in the mid-50s to near 60 (low 60s beaches).

Sunday/Sunday Night: Temps warm slightly Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Compact shortwave on the trailing edge of the upper trough swings through the mid-Atlantic Sunday into Sunday night as a boundary sets up across the region. Guidance continues to depict chances for precipitation Sunday night, with multiple potential contributing factors. A few diurnally driven showers will be possible along the sea breeze, with more widespread precip possible north of the boundary, which will depend on exactly where the boundary sets up Sunday night. Guidance also hints at the potential for an MCV to progress eastward from the Plains, which would also contribute to precipitation potential; however, this will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection across the Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday night. For now, have capped pops at likely as a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact timing and coverage of precip. Lows are forecast near 60 Sunday night.

Monday - Friday: Weak riding builds in behind the departing low aloft early next week. Surface boundary will remain stalled across the Carolinas with the potential for weak lows to traverse along the boundary. This will bring several chances for precipitation throughout the week with warmer conditions also expected to return (highs low-to-mid 80s, lows mid-60s). While exact timing and amounts of precip remain uncertain, unsettled weather is expected to linger through the workweek.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Fri...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight as cool and dry high pressure builds in. Skies will be mostly clear aside from a few areas of high clouds. Winds will be strong again this afternoon out of the WNW, with wind gusts 20-25 mph possible.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri....A dry airmass should support mostly VFR conditions into the weekend. Next best chance for sub-VFR conditions across Eastern NC will be Sunday afternoon into early next week as a stalled boundary sets up across the Carolinas bringing the return of unsettled weather and chances of precipitation.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Fri...Small Craft conditions could linger into early this afternoon off of Cape Hatteras as seas remain 6-7 ft.
Thereafter, seas will be 3-5 ft through tonight.

Winds this morning are NW at 10-20 kts, and will become W/WNW later this morning through this evening at around 10-20 kts.
Some occasional gusts to 25 kts are possible especially this afternoon during peak mixing, but overall conditions should remain short of Small Craft criteria. Tonight, winds turn to the NW at around 10-20 kts, and will subside to below 15 kts before sunrise.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Northwesterly winds back to southwesterly through the day on Saturday, with speeds generally around 10 knots. Surface boundary stalls across the Carolinas Sunday into next week. Winds will largely depend on where this boundary sets up with more northerly winds north of the boundary and more southerly winds south of the boundary. Weak areas of low pressure may cross the waters from west to east Monday into Tuesday as they travel along the aforementioned boundary, however winds should remain below SCA levels. 2-4 ft waves are forecast to subside to around 2 feet Sunday before increasing to 3-5 ft Monday/Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.