Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wanchese, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 9:12 AM EST (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 628 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Waves light chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 632 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. High pressure passes north of the area today, leading to gusty ne winds. A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Saturday with widespread rainfall. Drying conditions and high pressure then follow for Sun into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wanchese, NC
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location: 35.75, -75.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 121130 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 630 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north through Friday morning. Then, an area of low pressure will form and move up the East Coast late Friday, bringing a cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly Sunday and Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 630 AM Thurs . High pressure will continue to ridge down from New England today, with a trough developing over the coastal waters by this afternoon. Cold NE winds, as well as below average low level thicknesses will lead to fairly chilly high temps despite mostly sunny skies. Expect readings to only reach the mid to upper 40s across most of the area, with coastal areas from Hatteras Island south likely reaching the low 50s. As the coastal trough develops this afternoon, shower activity will increase east of the Outer Banks. Have slight chance/chance PoPs eventually pushing further west and on land late this afternoon, and continuing through this evening for the Outer Banks, as well as Mainland Hyde and Dare counties.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. As of 630 AM Thurs . Precip chances will continue tonight for the Outer Banks and areas just to the west as the coastal trough moves closer to land. Showers will also increase from the west towards daybreak as an area of low pressure develops to the SW. Temperatures will likely bottom out early tonight, and then rise through the rest of the night as low level thicknesses and clouds increase. We'll see lows in the mid 30s inland, while areas along the coast only drop into the mid to upper 40s early tonight. By tomorrow morning, temps will have risen into the low 40s inland, and the low to mid 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM Thu . Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Fri as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur low pressure development over the deep south. This low will ride up the coast rapidly, with rain becoming likely through the day Fri, peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible Fri evening. Still some uncertainty on exact track of the low, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm track is further inland such as advertised by the ECM/CMC. Latest 12/00Z ECM continues to indicate aoa 500 J/KG of sfc based capes advecting into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Best chance of a stronger storm would be along the coast where best instability will reside. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough and continued swrly flow sfc and aloft, and have a likely pop through around noon, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops and progressive high pressure dominates.

Tuesday . Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night and Tue, and introduced 50-70% pops this period, focused on Tue as converging model solns focus timing of the next strong cold front moving through by later Tue.

Wednesday . A return to dry albeit cooler weather pattern by Wed as long wave trough axis shifts to the eastern Seaboard with sfc high pres building into the region. Highs in the 50s with lows dropping back to the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through Friday Morning/ . As of 630 AM Thurs . VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear this morning, and through this evening, with some occasionally strong northerly winds. As a storm system approaches the area late tonight, clouds will increase, and will likely drop to MVFR levels at some point early Friday morning.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/ . As of 330 AM Thu . Low pressure area will quickly advance in on Friday, with sub VFR expected into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat through Monday as high pres builds back in.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 630 AM Thurs . Small craft conditions continue across the coastal waters and sounds as winds have increased to NNE 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, with seas soon building to 6-9 ft. A coastal trough will form over the western Gulf Stream this afternoon, which will strong winds continuing just to the west of it, especially over the central and southern waters. Winds eventually subside to NE 15-20 tonight with seas 5-6 ft.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/ . As of 330 AM Thu . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the weekend which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. There will be a break in the gusty winds and high for much of Friday ahead of the next system, and seas may drop below 6 feet for all but the ctrl waters, but winds and seas come back up Friday night ahead of low pressure that will skirt up the coast bringing gusty swrly winds 15-25 kt through Sat. Winds and seas finally subside later Sunday as high pres begins to build into the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . TL/SGK MARINE . TL/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 3 mi61 min NNE 15 G 21 42°F 55°F1038 hPa
44095 12 mi57 min 59°F6 ft
44086 19 mi48 min 55°F7 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 32 mi43 min 54°F6 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 32 mi61 min NE 21 G 24 41°F 1037.9 hPa
FRFN7 32 mi133 min 6 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 35 mi43 min 54°F6 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi61 min NNE 19 G 25 45°F 53°F1036.9 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC14 mi18 minNE 12 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F28°F60%1038.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC20 mi18 minno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F27°F59%1038.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS9S10S9S8S9SW6SW11S8SW10SW9SW7S9SW10SW12SW11SW10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:51 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:12 PM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10-00.10.30.60.81110.80.60.40.10-00.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:52 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 AM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20-0.1-0.1-00.10.40.60.70.70.70.50.40.20.1-0-000.20.40.50.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.