Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rutherford College, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 PM Friday: Dry and gusty conditions continue this afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

Winds diminish this evening as a lee trough dissipates with the center of surface high pressure building in overnight. High clouds will increase from the NW through the night but no rain expected.
Lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A short wave moves toward the area in the NW flow aloft on Saturday. This brings an increase in mid and upper level moisture through the day. The center of surface high pressure remains over the area, but a weak frontal boundary just to the southwest may allow low level moisture to pool over or near the Upper Savannah River valley and NC mountains west of the French Broad. This combined with the short wave may bring isolated to low end scattered showers to those areas by the end of the day.
Mainly dry with increasing clouds elsewhere. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1252 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool conditions Sunday and especially Monday.

2) Periods of light rain are expected both afternoons, though it looks like there should be a lull Sunday night or Monday morning.

Some of the low-res guidance depicts a lull in deep synoptic forcing on Saturday night, yet during this same timeframe, isentropic ascent looks like it should pick up steam along and north of a reactivating warm frontal boundary to our south. It still appears that moisture will have to advect off the Gulf, then up the lower Mississippi Valley and east into our area...so the limited forcing and limited moisture return will result in...a less-than-impressive overall setup for rainfall. Expect widespread but generally light rain on Sunday, spreading across the area from west to east, with the bulk of accumulating rain on Sunday afternoon, when at least some deep synoptic forcing should be available. Temperatures will top out a category or so below normal.

A lull in rain appears likely early Monday, as the axis of DPVA translates east, but it'll be followed in short order by another vort lobe, and rain will therefore pick up again during the afternoon and evening hours. With a stagnant frontal boundary still stationed to our south, and surface high pressure beginning to migrate out of the Great Lakes into New England, we'll be in a good setup for in situ or hybrid CAD (dependent upon the strength of the high and resultant surface dry advection) by the end of the period.
Temperatures are therefore expected to be even lower on Monday - with highs potentially only climbing into the low 70s amid amid scattered drizzle and and overcast skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 134 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Low confidence on the details of the medium range forecast.

2) Periods of widespread rainfall are expected, with some afternoon thunder beginning to mix in on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

3) Cooler-than-normal temperatures expected early in the week, with a gradual warming trend Wednesday and beyond.

By Monday night and Tuesday, surface high pressure will begin ridging down the eastern Contintental Divide...likely socking us into cold-air damming for the middle of the week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, repeat vort lobes aloft will cross the region, inciting periods of heavier rainfall. By late Wednesday, surface high pressure will have translated well offshore and therefore lingering CAD will be sapped of synoptic support. It's tough to say exactly how long it'll take for it to erode, since there's no especially convincing mechanism to scour it out. Earlier runs of the GFS and CMC, which depicted cyclogenesis over the Southeast on Wednesday or Thursday, have backed off, and in the latest 12z cycles favor more of an open wave along the existing front / wedge boundary. This scenario would result in more rain, but would do little to prompt an air mass change...and would also nix our thunder chances. Some of the low-res guidance does indeed depict enough mixing for surface- based instability, though as is typically the case with deteriorating CAD, one might express a little skepticism at exactly how it'll play out. In general, the week looks unsettled, to the point that some low-end hydro issues can't be entirely ruled out by the end of the week...but predictability is low, and it's too soon for a confidence assessment.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected through the period with varying amounts of stratocu and altocu this evening and overnight. Low VFR becomes more widespread through the day Saturday. SW to NW gusty wind, NNW at KAVL, continues through the afternoon, then diminishes by early evening turning N to NE overnight. Winds go back SW, NNW at KAVL, during the day Saturday.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorms chances increase into early next week, maximizing on Tuesday. Lower chances continue on Wednesday.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus are possible each morning early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.