Raleigh, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raleigh, NC

April 22, 2024 12:26 AM EDT (04:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM
Moonrise 5:55 PM   Moonset 4:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 220159 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 959 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A vigorous, but moisture-starved mid and upper-level disturbance will pivot across the southern Appalachians tonight and the Carolinas early Monday. High pressure will otherwise build across the Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 955 PM Sunday...

Water vapor satellite and 00Z upr air data depict 1) a lead srn stream shortwave trough, and wrn edge of deeper moisture characterized by PWs greater than an inch, lifting newd across the srn and middle Atlantic coasts and 2) a nrn stream, shortwave trough pivoting across the mid-South. The former will continue sweep ewd/coast-ward an area of light rain now moving across ern NC, with some partial clearing likely in its wake over cntl/wrn NC early tonight. The approach of the nrn stream shortwave trough, and associated strong/80-100 m/12 hr 500 mb height falls across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and GA by 12Z Mon, will cause particularly mid/high-level ceilings to redevelop across cntl NC late tonight-Mon morning.

At the surface, an offshore, wavy frontal zone will continue to move ewd and away from the coast of the Carolinas tonight, while 1025 mb high pressure centered over cntl/ern OK will build ewd. Between the two, an inverted surface trough/convergence axis --and boundary between residually moist surface dewpoints in the 40s to around 50F to its east from markedly drier 20s-30s amid nwly flow to its west-- was evident in 0130Z surface observational data over the wrn Carolinas and VA from near LYH to FQD to CEU. This boundary may drift slightly ewd and into the nw NC Piedmont between 05-09Z, with a more-marked push of drier air from cntl/nrn VA swd and throughout cntl NC after sunrise Mon.

Despite the lack of signal in model guidance, the aforementioned clearing in the wake of the srn stream shortwave trough will probably contribute to the continued development of radiation fog across the Foothills and srn and wrn NC Piedmont early tonight. Some may become dense based on surface observational trends there since 00Z. Thereafter, a combination of low-level drying with the passage of the inverted surface trough, and redevelopment of mid/high-level ceilings, should cause the fog to disperse in most areas after 05- 06Z. Otherwise, virga will accompany those ceilings and associated strong mid/upr-level forcing for ascent throughout cntl NC, while patchy light rain may develop along the inverted surface trough and drift across the nrn/nwrn Piedmont with a hundredth of an inch or three early Mon morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 PM Sunday...

...Gradual moderation of Below-Normal Temperatures...

Patchy Frost Possible Monday Night across the Piedmont

Cool high pressure centered over the Lower MS Valley will build east into the SE US through early Tuesday, and then off the SE coast late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Aloft, a vigorous shortwave trough will move through central NC during the day Monday, followed by strong subsidence Monday night as Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds east into the region.

Monday and Monday night: Considerable cloudiness and a passing sprinkle Monday morning will give way to NW to SE clearing through midday, leaving behind mostly sunny skies for the afternoon.
Otherwise dry with early day low-level CAA resulting in well-below normal temperatures. Highs in the lower to mid 60s, which is 8-11 degrees below normal for late April. Clear skies and calm winds will result in optimal radiational cooling Monday night. Expect lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some patchy frost possible over the northern Piedmont, where temperatures could potentially cool to 34- 36 degrees. Will add a mention in the HWO.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: While still slightly below normal, the onset of southerly return flow will yield moderating temperatures.
Under sunny skies, highs in the lower 70s. The approach of a clipper style northern stream shortwave trough will lead to increase in mid/high clouds over the northern/northwest Piedmont late Tuesday nights. Lows 45-50.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

Minimal change from previous forecasts, as this still appears to be a largely dry period, with a roller coaster of temps going from near normal to below normal then above normal from mid week through the weekend.

Wed/Wed night: A mid level shortwave trough zips by just to our N Wed, along the base of a polar low over Quebec, and this will be associated with a surface cold front approaching from the NNW. This will result in a mid-upper level speed max sweeping over the Mid Atlantic region including NC. But in the lower levels, high pressure centered off the Southeast coast will ridge back westward across the Southeast and Gulf States, such that we'll be cut off from any moisture tap from both the Gulf and Atlantic from the surface up through 850 mb, and this will include a downslope wind component at 850 mb. Large scale forcing for ascent will be limited as well, with the upper jet core shifting well to our N, keeping any upper divergence N of our area, with minor to absent mass convergence in the lower troposphere. But most models and ens systems suggest potential for light precip falling out of high-based clouds ahead of the surface front, so have maintained a period of sprinkles, NW early then shifting to E and S in the afternoon, with the idea that the chance of anything measurable will be very low due to the downslope flow and lack of moisture influx. Low level thicknesses will be near normal, so expect highs in the 70s. Cool high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build in from the N overnight, resulting in cool lows in the 40s to around 50 with decreasing clouds.

Thu-Sun: Confidence is high in dry weather Thu, with temps about 1 to 2 categories below normal, as cool high pressure shifts to New England and continues to build in from the N, drawing in low level thicknesses 25-30 m below normal. Uncertainty grows in the Fri-Sun period. The surface high will shift E to off the Northeast coast Fri while still nosing down into NC, setting the stage for a possible damming event starting late Fri or Fri night/early Sat morning, with the potential for increasing moist upglide up and over the cool stable pool over the Piedmont. The ECMWF and its AIFS both suggest patchy drizzle in the E slopes into the Foothills Fri night/Sat morning, but the upglide further E is more in question, and will keep it dry for now Fri night. While the overall pattern will include mid level ridging building over the Southeast from the W Fri- Sun, the op models do depict a subtle wave topping the ridge and crossing the Mid Atlantic region sometime Sat, which could kick off a little light rain or showers (depending on the degree of lingering stability, if any) across the N Sat, followed by possible isolated storms in the W Sun with increasing heating and afternoon instability, but the rising mid level heights could suppress convection, so will keep Sun dry and watch trends. Temps about a category below normal Thu will warm well above normal Sun, with highs well into the 80s expected Sun. -GIH

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 735 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: A bit tricky to time the final improvement back to VFR given the potential for some fluctuation between scattered and broken IFR/MVFR cigs on the back edge of the rain as it moves eastward and out of central NC this evening. KINT should largely remain VFR from her on out, and GSO should follow in the next hour or so, with the back edge of the rain east of both terminals. Light rain continues at the eastern 3 terminals as of 23Z. KRDU should be next to dry out and improve to VFR, with KRWI an KFAY being last to return to and stay VFR. Despite the return to VFR, and aside from a potential brief period of sct mid/high clouds, skies should largely be overcast in the 6-10 kft range through tonight and much of Mon morning. Skies should finally clear from the north Mon aft. Winds should generally be northerly tonight and nnely Mon, lightest overnight and increasing through the morning/early aft. -KC

Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through the week. There are two possible exceptions. First would be a small chance for a brief period of light rain and/or borderline VFR/MVFR cigs as a weak cold front moves into/through the area on Wednesday. The other would be possible sub-VFR low stratus Wed night/Thu morn as cool high pressure builds in from the north. However, confidence in both occurrences remains low at this time.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC 10 sm35 mincalm9 smMostly Cloudy48°F46°F93%30.03
KJNX JOHNSTON RGNL,NC 22 sm16 mincalm10 smOvercast50°F48°F94%30.02
KLHZ TRIANGLE NORTH EXECUTIVE,NC 23 sm21 minN 0310 smOvercast46°F46°F100%30.06
Link to 5 minute data for KRDU


Wind History from RDU
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Tide / Current for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
   
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Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
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0.9
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1.4
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0.7
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0.2
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0
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0.1
11
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0.4
12
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0.7
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0.3



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Raleigh/Durham, NC,



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