Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raleigh, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1215 PM Monday...

For the near term update, adjusted pops per recent guidance which looks reasonable to some of the CAMs coverage retriggering this afternoon into evening. The 12z GSO sounding had a PWAT of 1.8 inches and given such ample moisture in place with upper perturbations continuing to ride the SW to zonal flow aloft in conjunction with a stall frontal boundary draped across the CWA, convection looks to have the primary threat of highly efficient precip producers and localized flooding similar yesterday. Have maintained the current Flood Watch area-wide. Some hydrometeor loading could aid downdrafts in development today too so wet microburst strong winds are also possible. Previous discussion follows...

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM Monday...

The stationary front that is currently near the Virginia-North Carolina border will lift north during the day, but remain in close enough proximity to allow for additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm north of US-64 during the evening, but conditions will dry out overnight.
Considering the boundary will be moving away from the area, rainfall rates should not be as intense as they were yesterday and are forecast to be today, so the area is not under a threat of excessive rainfall or severe weather. Highs will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Lows will only drop into the 70s overnight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 215 PM Monday...

Wednesday should be a relative respite from widespread precipitation, although at least a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue to the west of I-95.
However, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the region. There is still some timing uncertainty as to when the front will move - models are currently showing the greatest amount of precipitation during the evening. If the frontal passage is indeed during the overnight hours, this will help to limit the severe weather potential. However, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area (except southeastern counties) under a 15% probability on Thursday, equivalent to a Slight Risk. The primary threat would be damaging wind gusts. The front will linger across the North Carolina coastline Friday and Saturday before dissipating, keeping minimal chances for rain east of US-1 both afternoons.
With no synoptic forcing around, Sunday and Monday both appear to be dry days.

The greater hazard during the extended forecast may not come from the thunderstorms, but from the heat and humidity. On Wednesday and Thursday, a good portion of the forecast area should have heat index values between 100 and 105, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria of 105. Both of those days will have highs in most locations in the 90s. While the cold front will drop high temperatures a few degrees on Friday, highs will rise again for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with all locations reaching into the 90s. In addition, with the exception of northern locations Thursday and Friday nights, lows will only fall into the 70s throughout this stretch of days. The compound effects of prolonged heat and humidity with little relief overnight could be problematic for some over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop across central NC, particularly along a line extending from KHBI to KRDU and KRWI, with another line developing around KFAY. Most locations have mixed out to VFR, and this trend should continue through the rest of the afternoon, but IFR conditions are possible at any TAF site affected by a storm, along with gusty winds and heavy rain. Coverage and intensity should increase in the late afternoon and evening hours, before decreasing from west to east between about 03z and 06z. Some isolated showers may linger into the overnight hours especially east. After the rain moves out, low stratus will move into much of central NC from north to south, with IFR and even LIFR ceilings possible, particularly between 09z and 13z. Some reduced visibilities from fog/mist also can’t be ruled out. However, models vary significantly on how far south the low stratus will get, so confidence in the forecast at KFAY is fairly low. For now, the TAF went with the middle ground (an MVFR forecast), but anything from IFR to even staying VFR is on the table. Ceilings will lift to MVFR and then VFR across the north in the late morning and early afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable through tonight, becoming SW during the day tomorrow but remaining light (5-10 kts).

Outlook: Additional scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday afternoon, particularly across the north, with associated sub- VFR conditions possible. Precipitation should quickly end on Tuesday evening, with VFR conditions returning which last into the day Wednesday. Diurnal afternoon thunderstorms return Thursday and will continue each afternoon and evening into the weekend. There will be potential for late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day especially where it rains.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.