Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:38PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 2:27 PM EST (19:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 9:14PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 281908 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 208 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the northwest and north through Thursday, although another upper level disturbance crossing the Southeast states late Wednesday through Wednesday night will bring some clouds and a few sprinkles to North Carolina. Another storm system approaching from the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain chances starting Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 150 PM Tuesday .

The incoming surface high remains centered over the Upper Midwest and is attempting to push east of the Appalachians this afternoon. It should begin to succeed in this process tonight, as the drier and more stable air is able to breach the central Appalachians and spill southward into northern and eastern NC. Overall moisture through the column will be sparse tonight, but the subpar performance of the models with this morning's cloudiness, including not depicting well the strength of the inversion just aloft as well as the moisture trapped just below the inversion base, reduces confidence in the model solutions. And even the latest runs are not doing well picking up on the stratocu currently over N and E VA. It is this cloudiness that may spill southward into NC starting late tonight, a feature alluded to in recent RAP runs. Considering that the existing moisture near the top of the mixed layer will be only weakly dispersed overnight given the weakening of the wind field and the persistence of the inversion aloft, greater cloud cover is favored late tonight, and will show skies trending to partly to mostly cloudy by sunrise Thu. We'll also see high and mid clouds beginning to spread in from the west late tonight, ahead of the strong storm system tracking from the southern Plains to the lower Miss Valley through tonight, so irrespective of any stratocu, after largely fair skies this evening, we are likely to see increasing clouds overnight. Expect lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. -GIH

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 225 AM Tuesday .

Surface low pressure will be near New Orleans Wednesday morning, move across Florida Wednesday night, and pass to the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday morning. The northern extent of rain with this storm appears to be farther south than forecast models showed 24 hours ago, and do not think this will pose much of a local threat for rainfall. Instead, any showers are likely to be associated with an upper level shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley. There will be plenty of moisture to produce clouds with this feature, but remain pretty unimpressed with the amount of forcing that will be present to produce rain. Made little change to the inherited forecast, which is primarily slight chance pops south and west of the Triangle. A slight chance for rain will hold on in the Triad into Thursday morning. While temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing in all locations, the above-freezing layer will be quite thin in the Triad, and a few snowflakes cannot be ruled out mixing in with the rain. However, the lack of entrenched cold air should prevent any accumulation from occurring. Temps will be a few degrees below normal, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s and lows in the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 150 PM Tuesday .

Through Thursday night: An upper level shortwave over the central Appalachians will swing through the region as a surface low off the Southeast US coast migrates eastward over the Atlantic. Brief ridging aloft will build over the area as surface high pressure over New England ridges into the mid-Atlantic through Thursday night. Aside from some lingering showers in the southeast early Thursday morning, the remainder of Thursday through Thursday night should be dry and cool.

Friday through Saturday: A deep upper level trough extending from Canada to Mexico through the Rockies/Plains will move eastward through the MS River Valley toward the East Coast through Saturday night. Several embedded waves/lows will swing through the trough. While Friday should remain dry, rain chances will increase Friday night as the trough approaches and a coastal low develops off the Southeast/mid-Atlantic coast. A shortwave passing over the area Friday night will enhance lift and chances for rain. As the s/w and low lift away from the area Saturday, a lull in rainfall is expected. However, the upper level trough will remain over the Great Lakes region, digging south through the mid-Atlantic as it shifts eastward on Saturday/Saturday night. There is some uncertainty with respect to this next trough that will impact chances for rainfall Saturday/Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday: Expect deep northwest flow aloft Sunday with a ridge building eastward and over the eastern US on Monday. A cutoff low over the Baja/Desert Southwest on Sunday will eject northeast as a shortwave on Monday into Tuesday. This will likely be the next system to impact central NC, though exact timing and impacts are too uncertain to specify at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM Tuesday .

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 18Z Wednesday. However, scattered cumulus clouds at around 4-5 kft are currently over parts of central NC. This should continue through this evening, especially once winds die down. Late tonight, there is a good chance of some low VFR ceilings across the area, first across the Triad before spreading farther south and east, as light winds shift northerly once again and moisture from VA is advected in. While not all model guidance has this, have opted to go with the cloudier solution based on the models' underestimation of the low level clouds and strong inversion this morning. High clouds will also increase after midnight from a system moving into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Looking beyond 18Z Wednesday: VFR conditions will continue Wednesday afternoon, but cloudcover will be increasing. On Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, some MVFR ceilings and light rain showers are possible. Even a few snowflakes cannot be ruled out in the Triad on Thursday morning, but no accumulation or aviation impacts are expected. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day Thursday into Friday, before a storm system brings sub- VFR conditions and rain to the area, especially to the east (RDU, FAY, RWI), on Friday night into Saturday morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Hartfield NEAR TERM . Hartfield SHORT TERM . Green LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Danco


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi37 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds52°F30°F43%1014 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair52°F30°F44%1014.2 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi33 minNW 510.00 miFair50°F28°F43%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmNW3SW6SW5W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44N73CalmNW6
1 day agoW10W8W8
G15
W5W5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4W8SW6SW7
2 days agoW11W8W6W4W4W34CalmCalmW3W3W33W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W4W76W95
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 12:17 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:06 PM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.40.81.11.21.21.10.80.60.30.200.10.30.71.11.31.31.31.10.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.