Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:20 PM EDT (02:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 12:00PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 krah 230103
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
903 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
On the western periphery of high pressure centered east of bermuda,
a lee low will develop over the carolinas fri. A cold front will
then settle south across the region late Fri and Fri night, with
following cool high pressure for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 250 pm Thursday...

plentiful sunshine throughout the morning mid afternoon hours has
allowed for ample heating and destabilization to occur across just
about all of central nc. Rap analysis shows sb CAPE values ranging
from 3500 j kg (west) to 4500 j kg (east) with additional
destabilization likely over the next few hours. Convective
initiation is ongoing across much of the area, especially along an
old MCS outflow boundary, now progressing east of the blue ridge and
through the foothills. Out ahead of the primary band of storms,
additional convection has fired along a remnant outflow boundary
situated along just north of the us-64 corridor across the western
piedmont, in the vicinity of the lee side trough. Convective
coverage and intensity will likely increase over the next few hours,
especially as the more organized band of storms progress east into
the triad region (likely between 3 - 6pm) and eventually the
triangle (4 to 8pm) before continuing into the eastern coastal
plain. These areas, especially toward the northern piedmont zones,
will be better suited for a possible damaging wind gust threat.

Here, dcapes range in the 1100 - 1300 with slightly lower values as
you progress south. Pwat values in the 1.6 to 2.1 inch range (higher
east) will also support some very heavy rainfall embedded with these
storms, keeping a low end urban and small stream flood threat
active, especially with a 20 - 25kt storm motion. Storms will likely
continue into the overnight hours, becoming elevated and feeding off
of residual ml CAPE which should remain impressively high,
especially east of the triangle, until areas get worked over.

Coverage should diminish after midnight, allowing skies to clear and
patchy fog stratus to develop, primarily in vicinity of large water
bodies in areas that see appreciable rain Thursday evening.

Overnight lows will settle into the lower 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 330 pm Thursday...

Friday and Friday night: a cold front associated with an
unseasonably strong positively-tilted northern stream trough diving
se through the NE us and mid-atlantic states will provide the focus
for widespread showers and storms Friday afternoon and into Friday
night.

Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region
of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving
through the region will result in deep strong ascent across the
area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE of 2000-3000 j kg and
a belt of strong westerlies of 25 to 35 kts of effective south
dropping south into the area will support the threat for an
organized line or cluster of strong to severe storms Friday
afternoon and evening. Cams support the above scenario, advancing a
well-organized cold pool dominated convective line segment into the
area between 4 pm to midnight, with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
the primary threat, especially from us highway 64 north. Convection
should weaken and the severe threat should diminish from loss of
daytime heating Friday evening as the line progresses into southern
half of the forecast. If the cold front slows down briefly stalls
across the area Friday night early Saturday as indicated by the gfs,
pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to some localized flash
flooding, especially in low-lying or poor drainage area. Average
rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 to 2 inches.

It will be another warm and humid day ahead of the front. Highs
Friday afternoon ranging from mid to upper 90s north to lower 90s
south. Min temps across the area Friday night will depend on how far
south the cold front progresses. But the airmass will feel noticeably
cooler across the north with lows ranging from mid 60s north to
lower 70s south.

Saturday and Saturday night:
a shallow of wedge of cooler and stable air will attempt to advect
south through the day on Saturday as the cold front progresses south
into sc and ga. While convection should remained anchored to the
front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip lingering
across at least southern portions of the forecast area INVOF of the
h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly lingering
into Saturday evening night. What a difference day makes wrt
temperatures on Saturday with expectations of a wedge regime setting
up north of the front. Weak overrunning atop the low-level nely flow
will lock in the low clouds and produce spotty rain showers and or
drizzle. Have lowered forecast highs on Saturday. Highs ranging from
lower 70s(a 15 f degree difference from Friday) to lower 80s south.

Lows Saturday night in the lower to mid 60s

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 255 pm Thursday...

extended portion of the forecast remains relatively on-track, with
uncertainty remaining high, especially early next week. Have
adjusted pops slightly upward Sun - Tue as the front lingers drifts
north and hints of some tropical sub-tropical influences begin to
appear. Models continue to trend wildly with these features, so
thought it best to linger chc schc pops into the middle of next
week, with a gradual warming trend likely.

Previous valid discussion...

meanwhile, it's worth noting as mentioned in the latest twoat, the
trough of low pressure located over the central bahamas is progged
by several models, including the latest ecmwf, to lift north and
merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast
on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development
well off the coast, but should this happen, central nc may actually
benefit from this pattern by way of increased N NE flow which would
advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a
front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant pops
across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to
favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep
temps below normal for daytime highs.

That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather
continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach
from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher pops
needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of
this short wave.

.Aviation 01z Friday through Wednesday
as of 900 pm Thursday...

storms will linger around rwi through 02z. Patches of stratus will
then likely develop after 08-09z; and some may result in short-
lived, broken ifr-MVFR ceilings in the several hours centered around
11-12z - most likely where rain earlier occurred at piedmont sites
and rwi.

Patches of morning stratus, should some indeed develop late tonight,
will lift and disperse toVFR by 14z. While isolated pulse-type
airmass storms will be possible areawide Fri afternoon, storms will
likely focus along a cold front and immediately-preceding pre-
frontal trough lee low over the piedmont between 21z fri-00z sat,
before subsequently spreading swd across fay just after the 00z taf
period.

Outlook: showers may linger at fay Fri night-sat, while ifr-MVFR
ceilings otherwise develop in cooler nely post-frontal flow during
the same time. Those ifr-MVFR ceilings, more the former overnight
and latter during the day, will then linger through at least the
weekend, with some scattering toVFR most likely at int gso by sun
afternoon. Sub-vfr conditions may then linger at times all the way
through early to mid next week, as a prevailing moist ely flow is
maintained in the low lvls.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Jjm
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm np
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi29 minN 010.00 miLight Rain73°F72°F96%1015.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrSW11SW6SW7SW10SW7SW8SW7SW9SW7SW8SW10SW7SW7S4SW8S8W12
G17
5
G16
3Calm5
G17
W6CalmCalm
1 day agoSW5W13SW6W5W4S4S5SW11
G19
SW14
G22
SW8SW11SW11SW11
G16
SW10
G17
SW12SW12SW9SW8
G16
SW12
G20
SW13SW15W8
G19
SW13SW13
2 days agoSW7CalmW3W4CalmCalmS4W5SW6SW6SW6SW9SW6SW7SW7SW11SW10SW13SW8SW9SW7W7SW5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.70.50.30.30.30.50.91.21.31.31.210.70.40.20.10.10.40.81.21.41.41.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.