Thursday, November14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:09PM Thursday November 14, 2019 6:48 PM EST (23:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:56PMMoonset 8:41AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 142132
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
432 pm est Thu nov 14 2019

Synopsis
While high pressure will extend across the interior eastern united
states, low pressure will form and track along a coastal front
offshore the southeastern us coast through Friday, then slow and
meander off the coast of the carolinas this weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 415 pm Thursday...

a SRN stream closed mid-upr lvl low over the tx gulf coast this
afternoon is forecast to become an open wave trough while migrating
ewd along the gulf coast to near the fl panhandle by 12z fri. At the
same time, an initially positive tilt NRN branch shortwave trough
extending across the mid ms valley and SRN plains will amplify
sharply and become a closed low INVOF n-cntl ms through the same
time. The strongest forcing for ascent from both of these features
will remain to the SW of cntl nc, over the sern us and gulf coast
region, tonight. Between those two well-defined and stronger
features, weaker low amplitude perturbations shear vorticity maxima,
with related high lvl lift saturation radar returns evident on
regional radar imagery from the upstate of sc wswwd across n-cntl ga
and al at 21z, will stream across the carolinas tonight.

At the surface, a lingering ridge axis will remain over cntl nc,
while a pair of developing areas of low pressure flanking the fl
peninsula (one about 150 miles wsw of tpa and the other about 100
miles east of jax) will migrate newd along a developing coastal
front offshore the sern us coast.

Isentropic upglide, which has produced an axis of MVFR ceilings and
light rain centered over cntl sc today, will continue to develop and
expand nwd tonight; and this low lvl forcing for ascent and moist
axis will be increasingly overrun by the deeper saturation
accompanying the aforementioned low amplitude perturbations
approaching from the sw. So while these processes will support the
nwd development of light rain across cntl nc tonight, precipitation
amounts will likely remain a quarter or third of an inch or less,
including only a couple of hundredths of an inch on the back nwrn
edge of the precipitation shield over the NW nc piedmont, owing to
the delay in stronger synoptic forcing for ascent accompanying the
foregoing NRN and SRN branch troughs lows.

Evaporatively-cooled low temperatures are expected to range from the
mid-upr 30s over the piedmont to lwr 40s in the coastal plain.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 430 pm Thursday...

the remnants of the SRN stream low trough will lift deamplify
rapidly newd across the carolinas on fri, with a related uptick in
larger scale forcing for ascent over cntl nc. Meanwhile, the
developing NRN branch closed low initially over ms is forecast to
wobble ewd to the sc ga coast by 12z sat. Strong mid lvl deformation
and frontogenesis will result over the cntl and ERN carolinas fri
night into sat.

At the surface, low pressure will consolidate or reform offshore the
coast of the carolinas as the strengthening along offshore coastal
front is overspread by the strong qg-forcing for ascent accompanying
the SRN and NRN branch troughs lows.

The sensible weather will likely be a continuation of that from
tonight, though with higher rainfall amounts of one half inch to one
inch over the sern zones, as forcing for ascent increases. Periods
of rain will continue over the ERN two thirds of the forecast area,
while WRN piedmont locations remain on the WRN edge of the
precipitation shield and mostly dry, albeit cloudy. Temperatures are
expected to range from mid 40s to around 50 degrees, relatively
highest on the nwrn side of the precipitation shield over the nw
piedmont, with lows in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 255 pm Thursday...

the cut off low over the SE us Sat morning will finally begin to
lift NE on sat, becoming stacked with the surface low of the se
coast as it does so. The best deep layer forcing for precip looks
like it will remain near the coast and offshore, but the 12z ecmwf
came in a bit wetter with respect to the deformation band precip on
the northwest side of the stacking low, so have increase pops for a
good portion of the piedmont and lowered temps, with afternoon highs
mostly in the mid 40s. Strong pressure gradient between the coastal
low and a 1036mb high extending down the eastern seaboard from new
england will lead to winds of 15-20mph and gusts to as highs as
35mph, strongest over the coastal plain during the day on Saturday.

This will cause wind chills to be near freezing, and then into the
low to mid 20s Sat night, even as winds weakening and the rain ends
from west to east after midnight. Overnight lows should end up in
the upper 20s in the wets to mid upper 30s in the east.

Sunday should finally be dry, but low clouds are likely to linger
without a strong scouring mechanism, especially east, so highs are
again likely to be well below normal in the mid and upper 40s,
perhaps with some clearing in the west later in the day.

Mon-wed should be increasingly unsettled given a deepening upper
trough over the SE us, with another coastal low possible. Guidance
tends to favor a coastal low developing a bit further north... East
of nc or further north, but a lot of uncertainty remains. The
pattern would favor a period of rain closer to the coast and the
potential for some showers beneath the core of the upper trough as a
vort MAX or two rotate through. Will maintain just a slight chance
for now, favoring cooler guidance through the end of the period.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 pm Thursday...

MVFR and lowVFR ceilings between 2 and 6 thousand ft from west to
east across cntl nc this afternoon will lower solidly into ifr-MVFR
range through early tonight, at which time light rain, whose
back nwrn edge will likely become established very near int gso,
will overspread the region from the south. Rain and sub-vfr
conditions may consequently be more fleeting near and especially
just northwest of those sites. Rain and sub-vfr conditions will
meanwhile be more widespread and longer-lasting through the end of
the 18z TAF period at fay, rwi, and rdu.

Outlook: periods of rain and sub-vfr conditions will persist through
the weekend, lowest and most prolonged at rwi and fay, as an area of
low pressure strengthens and tracks slowly newd offshore the sern us
coast. Meanwhile, mainlyVFR conditions are expected over the nw
piedmont (int gso) during that time. Nnely surface winds will also
become strong and gusty in the pressure gradient between the coastal
low and high pressure ridging down the interior ERN us, likely
peaking on Sat at rwi and fay.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Mws
long term... Bls
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi58 minN 310.00 miOvercast44°F28°F55%1026.6 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi54 minN 010.00 miOvercast48°F37°F66%1025.7 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi74 minNW 310.00 miOvercast45°F33°F66%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4N4CalmCalm3NW5NE4N4N3
1 day ago654N7
G16
N9
G15
N6N6N5N4N56N85NE6NE11
G17
NE11
G18
NE7NE7NE6N63NE5NE5Calm
2 days agoSW10SW11SW11SW11SW10SW9SW8SW9SW7SW8W3SW4SW3CalmW4NW7N7
G17
N12
G19
N75553N3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 04:03 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:04 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:04 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:53 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.611.31.31.31.10.80.60.30.100.20.61.11.41.51.51.41.10.90.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.