Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:37AM||Sunset 7:57PM||Thursday August 22, 2019 10:20 PM EDT (02:20 UTC)||Moonrise 10:59PM||Moonset 12:00PM||Illumination 50%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus62 krah 230103|
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
903 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
On the western periphery of high pressure centered east of bermuda,
a lee low will develop over the carolinas fri. A cold front will
then settle south across the region late Fri and Fri night, with
following cool high pressure for the weekend.
Near term through tonight
As of 250 pm Thursday...
plentiful sunshine throughout the morning mid afternoon hours has
allowed for ample heating and destabilization to occur across just
about all of central nc. Rap analysis shows sb CAPE values ranging
from 3500 j kg (west) to 4500 j kg (east) with additional
destabilization likely over the next few hours. Convective
initiation is ongoing across much of the area, especially along an
old MCS outflow boundary, now progressing east of the blue ridge and
through the foothills. Out ahead of the primary band of storms,
additional convection has fired along a remnant outflow boundary
situated along just north of the us-64 corridor across the western
piedmont, in the vicinity of the lee side trough. Convective
coverage and intensity will likely increase over the next few hours,
especially as the more organized band of storms progress east into
the triad region (likely between 3 - 6pm) and eventually the
triangle (4 to 8pm) before continuing into the eastern coastal
plain. These areas, especially toward the northern piedmont zones,
will be better suited for a possible damaging wind gust threat.
Here, dcapes range in the 1100 - 1300 with slightly lower values as
you progress south. Pwat values in the 1.6 to 2.1 inch range (higher
east) will also support some very heavy rainfall embedded with these
storms, keeping a low end urban and small stream flood threat
active, especially with a 20 - 25kt storm motion. Storms will likely
continue into the overnight hours, becoming elevated and feeding off
of residual ml CAPE which should remain impressively high,
especially east of the triangle, until areas get worked over.
Coverage should diminish after midnight, allowing skies to clear and
patchy fog stratus to develop, primarily in vicinity of large water
bodies in areas that see appreciable rain Thursday evening.
Overnight lows will settle into the lower 70s.
Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 330 pm Thursday...
Friday and Friday night: a cold front associated with an
unseasonably strong positively-tilted northern stream trough diving
se through the NE us and mid-atlantic states will provide the focus
for widespread showers and storms Friday afternoon and into Friday
Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region
of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving
through the region will result in deep strong ascent across the
area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE of 2000-3000 j kg and
a belt of strong westerlies of 25 to 35 kts of effective south
dropping south into the area will support the threat for an
organized line or cluster of strong to severe storms Friday
afternoon and evening. Cams support the above scenario, advancing a
well-organized cold pool dominated convective line segment into the
area between 4 pm to midnight, with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
the primary threat, especially from us highway 64 north. Convection
should weaken and the severe threat should diminish from loss of
daytime heating Friday evening as the line progresses into southern
half of the forecast. If the cold front slows down briefly stalls
across the area Friday night early Saturday as indicated by the gfs,
pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to some localized flash
flooding, especially in low-lying or poor drainage area. Average
rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 to 2 inches.
It will be another warm and humid day ahead of the front. Highs
Friday afternoon ranging from mid to upper 90s north to lower 90s
south. Min temps across the area Friday night will depend on how far
south the cold front progresses. But the airmass will feel noticeably
cooler across the north with lows ranging from mid 60s north to
lower 70s south.
Saturday and Saturday night:|
a shallow of wedge of cooler and stable air will attempt to advect
south through the day on Saturday as the cold front progresses south
into sc and ga. While convection should remained anchored to the
front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip lingering
across at least southern portions of the forecast area INVOF of the
h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly lingering
into Saturday evening night. What a difference day makes wrt
temperatures on Saturday with expectations of a wedge regime setting
up north of the front. Weak overrunning atop the low-level nely flow
will lock in the low clouds and produce spotty rain showers and or
drizzle. Have lowered forecast highs on Saturday. Highs ranging from
lower 70s(a 15 f degree difference from Friday) to lower 80s south.
Lows Saturday night in the lower to mid 60s
Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 255 pm Thursday...
extended portion of the forecast remains relatively on-track, with
uncertainty remaining high, especially early next week. Have
adjusted pops slightly upward Sun - Tue as the front lingers drifts
north and hints of some tropical sub-tropical influences begin to
appear. Models continue to trend wildly with these features, so
thought it best to linger chc schc pops into the middle of next
week, with a gradual warming trend likely.
Previous valid discussion...
meanwhile, it's worth noting as mentioned in the latest twoat, the
trough of low pressure located over the central bahamas is progged
by several models, including the latest ecmwf, to lift north and
merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast
on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development
well off the coast, but should this happen, central nc may actually
benefit from this pattern by way of increased N NE flow which would
advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a
front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant pops
across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to
favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep
temps below normal for daytime highs.
That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather
continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach
from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher pops
needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of
this short wave.
.Aviation 01z Friday through Wednesday
as of 900 pm Thursday...
storms will linger around rwi through 02z. Patches of stratus will
then likely develop after 08-09z; and some may result in short-
lived, broken ifr-MVFR ceilings in the several hours centered around
11-12z - most likely where rain earlier occurred at piedmont sites
Patches of morning stratus, should some indeed develop late tonight,
will lift and disperse toVFR by 14z. While isolated pulse-type
airmass storms will be possible areawide Fri afternoon, storms will
likely focus along a cold front and immediately-preceding pre-
frontal trough lee low over the piedmont between 21z fri-00z sat,
before subsequently spreading swd across fay just after the 00z taf
Outlook: showers may linger at fay Fri night-sat, while ifr-MVFR
ceilings otherwise develop in cooler nely post-frontal flow during
the same time. Those ifr-MVFR ceilings, more the former overnight
and latter during the day, will then linger through at least the
weekend, with some scattering toVFR most likely at int gso by sun
afternoon. Sub-vfr conditions may then linger at times all the way
through early to mid next week, as a prevailing moist ely flow is
maintained in the low lvls.
Rah watches warnings advisories
near term... Jjm
short term... Cbl
long term... Jjm np
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC||10 mi||29 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Light Rain||73°F||72°F||96%||1015.9 hPa|
|Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC||22 mi||25 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||73°F||73°F||100%||1016.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KRDU
Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||SW||Calm||W||W||Calm||Calm||S||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||SW |
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (22,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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