Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Louisville, TN
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 11:39 PM Moonset 8:07 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Louisville, TN
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KMRX 160712 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Key Messages:
1. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible during the day.
Less confidence in coverage within a capped and weakly forced environment.
2. Stronger forcing tonight and steep mid-level lapse rates will increase instability and result in a likely line/complex of severe thunderstorms across the area.
Discussion:
The main story of the forecast is today and tonight with the risk of severe weather. We will have a very warm, unstable atmosphere across the area this afternoon, and while coverage is uncertain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mid-day through the afternoon, mainly north of Interstate 40. HRRR/RAP forecasts show MLCAPE this afternoon between 2000 and 2500 J/Kg with EBShear of around 50 to 60 kt. This will be supportive of long-track supercell structures and damaging wind complexes. With LCL heights around 1000m and relatively weak low-level shear this afternoon, the tornado risk will be very low with a risk of mostly large hail or damaging winds from any supercells this afternoon.
As we get into the evening hours, loss of daytime heating will result in less scattered convection. However, height falls associated with the shortwave trough DPVA will steepen lapse rates and result in rising instability to around 2500 J/Kg overnight ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. This line will be capable of all severe weather hazards. As the cold pool intensifies and 850mb LLJ winds increase to around 50 kt, damaging winds along the line of thunderstorms will be the primary risk.
Downed trees and power outages are probable. There will also be a low (around 5 percent within 25 miles of a point) risk of tornadoes associated with this line due to the strengthened low- level shear and ESRH around 200 to 300 m2/s2. The main timing of this line will be after 03z and before 08z. Additionally, RAP forecast PW values of 1.6 to 1.8 will be near the climo max, and NAEFS IVT values are forecast to be near climo max. This is a strong signal for heavy rain rates which may result in localized flooding for urban and poor drainage areas, and for any areas that receive rainfall during the day today.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry and warm over the weekend.
2. Precipitation chances increase early next week, especially Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. Cooler late next week in the wake of a cold front.
Discussion:
Mostly dry and warm this weekend as shortwave ridging sets up across the Tennessee Valley. By early next week, a stronger shortwave trough will approach the Mississippi Valley with increasing chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Subtle vort maxima/MCVs will bring the potential of scattered rain and thunderstorms on Monday through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a cold front moves east across the area with cooler temperatures, and slight chance probabilities for primarily upslope light precipitation across the higher elevations.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Main aviation impacts through the forecast period are expected to be thunderstorms. CHA should remain dry for most of the day with thunderstorms possible mid-morning through the afternoon near TYS and TRI. A line or complex of thunderstorms is expected to arrive near the end of the forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 87 67 / 10 80 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 83 63 / 40 90 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 84 62 / 40 90 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 80 58 / 60 90 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Key Messages:
1. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible during the day.
Less confidence in coverage within a capped and weakly forced environment.
2. Stronger forcing tonight and steep mid-level lapse rates will increase instability and result in a likely line/complex of severe thunderstorms across the area.
Discussion:
The main story of the forecast is today and tonight with the risk of severe weather. We will have a very warm, unstable atmosphere across the area this afternoon, and while coverage is uncertain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mid-day through the afternoon, mainly north of Interstate 40. HRRR/RAP forecasts show MLCAPE this afternoon between 2000 and 2500 J/Kg with EBShear of around 50 to 60 kt. This will be supportive of long-track supercell structures and damaging wind complexes. With LCL heights around 1000m and relatively weak low-level shear this afternoon, the tornado risk will be very low with a risk of mostly large hail or damaging winds from any supercells this afternoon.
As we get into the evening hours, loss of daytime heating will result in less scattered convection. However, height falls associated with the shortwave trough DPVA will steepen lapse rates and result in rising instability to around 2500 J/Kg overnight ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. This line will be capable of all severe weather hazards. As the cold pool intensifies and 850mb LLJ winds increase to around 50 kt, damaging winds along the line of thunderstorms will be the primary risk.
Downed trees and power outages are probable. There will also be a low (around 5 percent within 25 miles of a point) risk of tornadoes associated with this line due to the strengthened low- level shear and ESRH around 200 to 300 m2/s2. The main timing of this line will be after 03z and before 08z. Additionally, RAP forecast PW values of 1.6 to 1.8 will be near the climo max, and NAEFS IVT values are forecast to be near climo max. This is a strong signal for heavy rain rates which may result in localized flooding for urban and poor drainage areas, and for any areas that receive rainfall during the day today.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry and warm over the weekend.
2. Precipitation chances increase early next week, especially Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. Cooler late next week in the wake of a cold front.
Discussion:
Mostly dry and warm this weekend as shortwave ridging sets up across the Tennessee Valley. By early next week, a stronger shortwave trough will approach the Mississippi Valley with increasing chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Subtle vort maxima/MCVs will bring the potential of scattered rain and thunderstorms on Monday through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a cold front moves east across the area with cooler temperatures, and slight chance probabilities for primarily upslope light precipitation across the higher elevations.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Main aviation impacts through the forecast period are expected to be thunderstorms. CHA should remain dry for most of the day with thunderstorms possible mid-morning through the afternoon near TYS and TRI. A line or complex of thunderstorms is expected to arrive near the end of the forecast period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 87 67 / 10 80 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 83 63 / 40 90 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 84 62 / 40 90 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 80 58 / 60 90 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southeast
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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