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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 252 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est this morning through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves choppy.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves light chop.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon, then becoming ne. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 252 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area late today, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 280316 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1016 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

SYNOPSIS
A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek.
A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 2200 Monday...Only minor adjustments to hrly Ts in the near term with the typical sheltered/cold spots decoupling at times causing Ts to drop slightly faster than previously forecast.
Quiet and cool overnight with some cirrus streaming over the coast as jet at base of trough aloft aloft works over the Carolinas.

Previous Disco...W to NW downsloping flow persists overnight, with dry conditions and cold air advection continuing. Light winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and temps will fall steadily after sunset, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most. Some cirrus could move over the area late, with little impact to the sensible weather.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM Mon...A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with drier and colder air filling in behind it. Gusty winds will make for a brisk afternoon despite sunny skies. Max temps only in the upper 40s to near 50 will be reached early afternoon with temps falling quickly as the sun angle lowers later in the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Monday...High pressure builds into the area through mid week bringing dry weather and temps well below normal. High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Broad cyclonic flow persists across the eastern CONUS through mid week with high pressure building in from the west with dry conditions prevailing and the coldest airmass of the season building into the region. A couple of shortwaves and sfc troughs will move through Tuesday and again Wednesday night serving to reinforce CAA and bringing a bit more high clouds across the region but otherwise the airmass will be very dry with PW values less than a quarter inch. Temps will be well below normal through Wednesday night with lows in the 20s inland and 30s along the coast and highs in the mid 40s to around 50. Tuesday night will see the coldest temps with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s inland, and potentially still near or below freezing along the beaches.
Temps moderate back to near normal on Thursday as the upper trough begins to lift nwd and sfc high pressure begins to slide offshore.

Friday through Sunday...A more active pattern begins to take shape late in the week and especially next weekend as the southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area. Guidance a bit faster bringing precip back across the area on Friday but overall the typical timing, strength and available moistures differences remain among the models this far out. Continue to generally follow NBM guidance but limited PoPs to chance giving the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal late in the week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1800 Monday...VFR flight cats through the period with breezy W to WNW winds prevailing through Tuesday. SKC outside of some thin cirrus overnight, mainly over the coast, and the combination of dry air advection and persistent winds should keep mixing up, precluding any fog threat. Should the typical cold spots decouple, some patchy ditch fog may develop as Ts crater toward Tds. Steam fog remains a possibility for terminals sheltered from the light overnight winds near inland water sources. No impactful fog development is expected. Similar story Tuesday with SKC and strong WNWerly breeze, strongest in afternoon, 10-15G~20kt.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1230 PM Monday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week bringing pred VFR conditions but temps will be quite cold and could see early morning steam fog along water ways bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions at the usual terminals, PGV and EWN, especially Wednesday morning when temps will be at their coldest. A more active pattern develops across the area late in the week and could see showers develop Friday with sub- VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 PM Mon...W to WNW winds over the waters will increase this evening as a nocturnal inversion develops over land, reducing the frictional impact on the low level flow. Expect wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt to become increasingly frequent with SCAs for all waters going into effect through the overnight hours. Tuesday morning might bring about a brief lull in the winds after sunrise, but a subtle backdoor cold front will cross the waters in the morning through midday, ushering in stronger winds through the afternoon, with SCAs remaining in effect.

The offshore winds will keep seas limited near shore, but rough 4-5 ft seas persist beyond 10 nm offshore with seas increasing to 4-6 ft Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week. Winds remain breezy Tuesday night before beginning to diminish to 10-15 kt Wednesday.
Another shortwave pushes through Wednesday night with winds briefly increasing to 15-20 kt. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt Thursday while backing to SW as the high moves offshore. A low pressure system will approach from the west late in the week and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt on Friday. Seas will build to 3-6 ft Tuesday in response to stronger winds but offshore flow help allow seas to subside to 2-4 ft Wednesday morning. Seas mainly around 1-3 ft expected Wednesday and Thursday but will briefly build to 2-4 ft Wednesday night with a quick surge in winds. Seas are then expected to build to 4-7 ft by late Friday.

CLIMATE
Record Low temps for 11/29 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 23/1967 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 29/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 17/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 24/2002 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1901 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 24/2002 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131-135- 150-152-154-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

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Suffolk
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Tue -- 04:32 AM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:09 AM EST     4.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:27 PM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet

Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 02:56 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:11 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:56 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:29 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,