Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 10:20 PM Moonset 7:02 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TN
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KMRX 132347 AAA AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 747 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered storms continue overnight. Gusty winds and isolated flooding from heavy downpours are the main impacts.
2. Saturday will be similar to today, with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Discussion:
A warm, moist air mass will continue over the region over the next 24-36 hours, with PW values on the order of 1.6-1.8 inches. The main forcing feature that will bring enhanced rain chances will be a closed low over the Mid MS Valley this evening that will slowly move east across the lower OH Valley through Saturday night. The first wave of forcing ahead of this system is currently driving showers and storms in Middle TN, and this is expected to affect our area late this afternoon and evening, until around midnight. The severe threat looks low given the lack of shear, but storms will be efficient rain producers that can drop a half to one inch of rain in an hour or so. Isolated wind gusts are possible in the Plateau, but should be sub-severe levels.
Saturday and Saturday night looks pretty similar to today/tonight, with afternoon heating leading to isolated/scattered showers/storms, followed by higher rain chances in the late afternoon/evening as the upper low draws closer and brings slightly cooler temperatures aloft and low to midlevel convergence. Heavy downpours and gusty winds at mainly sub-severe levels will be the main hazard again. Storms will likely persist well into Saturday night as the upper trough moves over the area.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
1. Unsettled and active weather expected.
2. A few strong storms are possible mainly each afternoon with peak heating. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.
3. With above normal moisture available, several inches of rain will likely occur in some locations over the period. Isolated flash flooding is possible in areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rainfall.
Discussion:
An unsettled long term period is expected through at least Thursday, with multiple upper level short waves moving across the region in a moisture rich environment. While timing of these waves is uncertain as is generally the case for longer range forecasts, the greatest coverage of showers and storms is most likely to be during the afternoon hours coinciding with peak heating. The risk for organized severe weather looks low during the period, as shear is expected to be weak. Models do hint at the possibility of drier air beginning to move in for Friday, which would lower the chances for convection by the end of the period.
Hazards and Impacts:
A few strong storms will be possible any given day during the afternoon and early evening hours. While an isolated severe storm is possible at some point in the next 7 days, most storms are expected to remain below severe strength. Any stronger storms that do occur will be capable of producing strong and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall that may lead to isolated flash flooding is of more concern. GEFS ensemble mean PW values are generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range during the period, which is above normal generally falling in the 75th to 90th percentile based on BNA sounding climo for this time of year. A few locations may see in excess of 3 or even 4 inches of rainfall through the long term period, while most locations will see less due to the unorganized and scattered nature of the convection. While narrowing down the areas that will see the higher precipitation amounts is not possible this far out, everyone should be alert for the threat of flooding especially in areas that receive multiple or prolonged rounds of heavy rainfall.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Main concern for the 00z TAFs is the line of SHRA/TSRA moving east through the TN valley. Latest timing both in models and using radar trends, suggest it will be east of all terminals by 03z or 04z timeframe. Afterwards, forecast soundings don't point to much potential for fog/low clouds but did go with some MVFR CIGS towards daybreak at KCHA. It's mainly a persistence forecast as they got those ceilings last night, they got rain this evening, and there's no air mass change.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 85 69 / 60 60 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 85 68 / 30 60 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 83 68 / 50 60 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 83 67 / 30 30 60 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 747 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered storms continue overnight. Gusty winds and isolated flooding from heavy downpours are the main impacts.
2. Saturday will be similar to today, with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Discussion:
A warm, moist air mass will continue over the region over the next 24-36 hours, with PW values on the order of 1.6-1.8 inches. The main forcing feature that will bring enhanced rain chances will be a closed low over the Mid MS Valley this evening that will slowly move east across the lower OH Valley through Saturday night. The first wave of forcing ahead of this system is currently driving showers and storms in Middle TN, and this is expected to affect our area late this afternoon and evening, until around midnight. The severe threat looks low given the lack of shear, but storms will be efficient rain producers that can drop a half to one inch of rain in an hour or so. Isolated wind gusts are possible in the Plateau, but should be sub-severe levels.
Saturday and Saturday night looks pretty similar to today/tonight, with afternoon heating leading to isolated/scattered showers/storms, followed by higher rain chances in the late afternoon/evening as the upper low draws closer and brings slightly cooler temperatures aloft and low to midlevel convergence. Heavy downpours and gusty winds at mainly sub-severe levels will be the main hazard again. Storms will likely persist well into Saturday night as the upper trough moves over the area.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
1. Unsettled and active weather expected.
2. A few strong storms are possible mainly each afternoon with peak heating. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.
3. With above normal moisture available, several inches of rain will likely occur in some locations over the period. Isolated flash flooding is possible in areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rainfall.
Discussion:
An unsettled long term period is expected through at least Thursday, with multiple upper level short waves moving across the region in a moisture rich environment. While timing of these waves is uncertain as is generally the case for longer range forecasts, the greatest coverage of showers and storms is most likely to be during the afternoon hours coinciding with peak heating. The risk for organized severe weather looks low during the period, as shear is expected to be weak. Models do hint at the possibility of drier air beginning to move in for Friday, which would lower the chances for convection by the end of the period.
Hazards and Impacts:
A few strong storms will be possible any given day during the afternoon and early evening hours. While an isolated severe storm is possible at some point in the next 7 days, most storms are expected to remain below severe strength. Any stronger storms that do occur will be capable of producing strong and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall that may lead to isolated flash flooding is of more concern. GEFS ensemble mean PW values are generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range during the period, which is above normal generally falling in the 75th to 90th percentile based on BNA sounding climo for this time of year. A few locations may see in excess of 3 or even 4 inches of rainfall through the long term period, while most locations will see less due to the unorganized and scattered nature of the convection. While narrowing down the areas that will see the higher precipitation amounts is not possible this far out, everyone should be alert for the threat of flooding especially in areas that receive multiple or prolonged rounds of heavy rainfall.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Main concern for the 00z TAFs is the line of SHRA/TSRA moving east through the TN valley. Latest timing both in models and using radar trends, suggest it will be east of all terminals by 03z or 04z timeframe. Afterwards, forecast soundings don't point to much potential for fog/low clouds but did go with some MVFR CIGS towards daybreak at KCHA. It's mainly a persistence forecast as they got those ceilings last night, they got rain this evening, and there's no air mass change.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 85 69 / 60 60 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 68 85 68 / 30 60 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 83 68 / 50 60 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 83 67 / 30 30 60 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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