Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN
September 11, 2024 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:15 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 2:27 PM Moonset 11:41 PM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 111044 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 644 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Key Messages:
1. Warm and dry conditions can be expected today with most of the area reaching well into the 80s.
2. Tonight, low-end rain chances exist in the south, along with some breezier winds over the mountains.
Today
Currently early this morning, Hurricane Francine is southwest of the Louisiana Coast with high pressure and fairly weak flow locally in the lower-levels. Aloft, a 70 to 80 kt jet is centered over the area. Francine will continue to progress northeastward with a landfall likely by this evening. The main result will be an increase in easterly to southeasterly flow and some higher clouds, especially across southern portions of the area. Some weak downsloping over the mountains will also lead to increased warming and lower RH values.
Tonight
Overnight, Francine is forecast to progress inland to Mississippi, likely weakening to tropical storm strength. During this time, the aforementioned upper jet will begin to progress northward, likely allowing for some increased upper divergence into the area. While much of the better moisture will still remain well to our south, some low-end rain chances exist along southern portions of the area.
Also during this time, southeasterly 850mb winds will reach 25 to 30 kts, making for breezy conditions across the mountains. Overall, impacts from Francine will remain very limited in the near-term period.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Key Messages:
1. Increasing rain chances Thursday afternoon through the weekend as the remnants of Francine move inland into the Tennessee Valley.
2. Breezy downslope southeast winds Thursday night into Friday morning.
3. Slight rain chances Sunday into Tuesday with the uncertainty of Francine's remains possibly still in the area.
Discussion:
The main weather impact in the extended will be due to the remnants of Hurricane Francine. By Thursday morning, Francine will be moving inland across the Lower Mississippi Valley moving northward.
Southeasterly flow will increase across the forecast area with the potential for 40+ mph winds across the higher elevations of the mountains due to the stronger gradient winds. We will also see widespread cloud cover and increasing rain chances.
However, the southeasterly winds will likely result in varied rainfall amounts across the forecast area on Thursday and Friday.
Downslope conditions will limit rainfall to 0.25 inch or less across most of northeast Tennessee and the western foothills with heavier rainfall totals across the plateau/southern plateau/southern valley areas where upslope flow conditions may increase precipitation totals. Limited impacts are expected for us at this time, though.
With the dry antecedent conditions, river and stream levels are already lower. This will limit the flooding risk. Still, a lot depends on the track of this system as it moves inland.
The track of this system is more uncertain through the weekend, but downslope conditions will likely continue to limit rainfall totals between Knoxville through the Tri-Cities. We will continue to keep chance PoPs through the weekend though due to the proximity of TC Florence remnants and the track uncertainty. Precipitation coverage trends will likely become more diurnal through the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Overall, a quiet TAF period is expected with only some high clouds today and easterly to southeasterly winds, especially around CHA.
Overnight, winds just above the surface will strengthen as Hurricane Francine's remnants approach but not sufficient for LLWS criteria, at least during the TAF period. Some low-end rain chances exist around CHA towards 12Z. Fog is also not anticipated tonight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 65 76 66 / 0 20 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 61 82 65 / 0 10 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 79 64 / 0 10 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 79 64 / 0 10 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 644 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Key Messages:
1. Warm and dry conditions can be expected today with most of the area reaching well into the 80s.
2. Tonight, low-end rain chances exist in the south, along with some breezier winds over the mountains.
Today
Currently early this morning, Hurricane Francine is southwest of the Louisiana Coast with high pressure and fairly weak flow locally in the lower-levels. Aloft, a 70 to 80 kt jet is centered over the area. Francine will continue to progress northeastward with a landfall likely by this evening. The main result will be an increase in easterly to southeasterly flow and some higher clouds, especially across southern portions of the area. Some weak downsloping over the mountains will also lead to increased warming and lower RH values.
Tonight
Overnight, Francine is forecast to progress inland to Mississippi, likely weakening to tropical storm strength. During this time, the aforementioned upper jet will begin to progress northward, likely allowing for some increased upper divergence into the area. While much of the better moisture will still remain well to our south, some low-end rain chances exist along southern portions of the area.
Also during this time, southeasterly 850mb winds will reach 25 to 30 kts, making for breezy conditions across the mountains. Overall, impacts from Francine will remain very limited in the near-term period.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Key Messages:
1. Increasing rain chances Thursday afternoon through the weekend as the remnants of Francine move inland into the Tennessee Valley.
2. Breezy downslope southeast winds Thursday night into Friday morning.
3. Slight rain chances Sunday into Tuesday with the uncertainty of Francine's remains possibly still in the area.
Discussion:
The main weather impact in the extended will be due to the remnants of Hurricane Francine. By Thursday morning, Francine will be moving inland across the Lower Mississippi Valley moving northward.
Southeasterly flow will increase across the forecast area with the potential for 40+ mph winds across the higher elevations of the mountains due to the stronger gradient winds. We will also see widespread cloud cover and increasing rain chances.
However, the southeasterly winds will likely result in varied rainfall amounts across the forecast area on Thursday and Friday.
Downslope conditions will limit rainfall to 0.25 inch or less across most of northeast Tennessee and the western foothills with heavier rainfall totals across the plateau/southern plateau/southern valley areas where upslope flow conditions may increase precipitation totals. Limited impacts are expected for us at this time, though.
With the dry antecedent conditions, river and stream levels are already lower. This will limit the flooding risk. Still, a lot depends on the track of this system as it moves inland.
The track of this system is more uncertain through the weekend, but downslope conditions will likely continue to limit rainfall totals between Knoxville through the Tri-Cities. We will continue to keep chance PoPs through the weekend though due to the proximity of TC Florence remnants and the track uncertainty. Precipitation coverage trends will likely become more diurnal through the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Overall, a quiet TAF period is expected with only some high clouds today and easterly to southeasterly winds, especially around CHA.
Overnight, winds just above the surface will strengthen as Hurricane Francine's remnants approach but not sufficient for LLWS criteria, at least during the TAF period. Some low-end rain chances exist around CHA towards 12Z. Fog is also not anticipated tonight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 65 76 66 / 0 20 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 61 82 65 / 0 10 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 79 64 / 0 10 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 79 64 / 0 10 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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