Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rocky Mount, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

1) Staying above normal through Wed with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Fire danger concerns are possible over the northwest Piedmont Wed afternoon.

2) Rain chances with a cold front on Wed are highest in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC.

3) High confidence in a period of at least light to moderate rain late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as amounts and areal coverage, remain highly uncertain.

DISCUSSION
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Staying above normal through Wed with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Fire danger concerns are possible over the northwest Piedmont Wed afternoon

Temperatures will hover above normal today and continue into tomorrow, even with the passage of a cold front during the early part of the day. A warm front continues to lift northward this afternoon and should propel our highs finally some 10-15 degrees above normal. Highs should reach the low to mid 60s in the east and mid to upper 60s in the west and southwest. Temperatures tonight will also be much more mild than the past few weeks with lows some 15-23 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow, a pair of cold fronts will move through. The first one passes through during the mid-morning and early afternoon hours. This first one will not be as cold as the second one, which comes in Wed evening, bringing upper 20s to low 30s Wed night and highs Thu in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Dry downslope northwest winds with the initial cold front will make for a gusty but also another warm day with highs once again in the low 60s NW to mid/upper 60s SE. Northwest winds could gust into the 15-25 mph range during the afternoon. As downslope flow and drier air works in, dewpoints will crash into the 20s over the Piedmont. A period of marginal increased fire danger may occur between the late morning hours and early evening in this region where RH levels dip into the mid/upper 20s. We reached out to the NCFS and a fire danger statement may be needed. Further consultation with NCFS will occur later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances with a cold front on Wed are highest in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC

The initial cold front pushing through on Wed will continue to bring a chance of rain, mainly during the morning hours, with activity skirting off to the southeast in the early afternoon.
The 12z HRRR guidance continues to show limited rainfall amounts. In fact, while precipitation chances are elevated in the 50 to 80 percent chance range along/east of US-1, forcing for ascent is not overly impressive. Median and LPMM rainfall amounts from the HRRR suggest a few hundredths of an inch around the Triangle, to maybe a tenth of an inch in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Little if any rain is expected in the Triad. The 90th percentile shows only a quarter of an inch in the south. So definitely not a drought buster by any means. Any rain ends by early afternoon, with sunshine taking hold over most of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High confidence in a period of at least light to moderate rain late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as amounts and areal coverage, remain highly uncertain.

An initially closed southern stream mid/upper level trough off the CA coast will kick eastward Fri and is expected to shift across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. NWP guidance is struggling with its evolution east of the Rockies and is resulting in a large range of solutions for the Carolinas. There is still a high degree of confidence in at least widespread light, and measurable rain, but the moderate to heavy rainfall footprint remains highly uncertain.

There is still a large spread in the speed and latitudinal track of this southern stream wave between the faster and farther north CMC, and the slower and farther south GEFS. The EPS, AI- GEFS, and AIFS are a good middle ground and show a reasonable low-end scenario of trace to 0.25" across the forecast area, greatest amounts towards the NC/SC border.
Probabilities of > 1" have come down slightly from the 12z Mon models and now range from 25-40%. Probabilities of these higher amounts remain greatest in the Foothills and western Piedmont (signaling an upslope pattern) and lowest in the Coastal Plain into northeast NC.

Alternate scenarios: There has been a general trend south of the southern stream wave within the NWP guidance which is making the likelihood of precip lifting north into VA less likely, but if it trends too far south (the 12z GEFS solution) the probabilities of > 1" plummet to around 10%. Conversely, if the track trends towards the mid-ground solutions, reasonable high- end amounts of 1-2" would be possible basically anywhere across the forecast area.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight hours across central NC as mid/high clouds increase ahead of an approaching system. Low-level wind shear is expected late tonight into early Wednesday morning at all terminals as a 45 kt jet develops around 2k ft, while surface winds remain generally light.

Toward daybreak Wednesday, ceilings will lower into MVFR, with the greatest restriction potential across the southern and eastern terminals. Periods of light rain are expected Wednesday morning, with brief MVFR (maybe even IFR) conditions possible—most likely at KFAY and KRWI where lower ceilings and reduced visibilities are forecast. Confidence in sub-VFR at KRDU is lower, but brief MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out during the late morning hours.

Conditions will improve from west to east late morning into the afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. Ceilings will lift and scatter, returning to VFR at all sites. Behind the front, winds will shift and become northwesterly as well as gusty Wednesday afternoon, with gusts up to 20–25 kts, continuing through early evening before gradually diminishing after sunset.

Outlook: Winds could be a bit breezy/gusty Wed aft/eve, mainly in the Triad. The next chance for precipitation and sub-VFR conditions will be Sat night/Sun, otherwise expect dry weather and VFR conditions to prevail.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.