Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wake Forest, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

As of 06Z, the sfc features included a lingering stationary boundary to our south over SC and a backdoor front near the VA/NC border which is denoted by a north wind shift and lower dwpts north of it.
This backdoor front is slowly drifting south. Aloft, a broad trough is located over the Plains while a shortwave ridge downstream of it is crossing the Appalachians attm. The backdoor front is progged to continue drifting south across the state this morning into the afternoon hours, and with a slightly cooler airmass behind it, today's highs will range from the upper 70s north near the VA border to the mid 80s south near the SC border.

High pressure north of the backdoor front will briefly build into central NC from the north this morning but will be short-lived as the progressive upper pattern shifts east, and so too will the high pressure. Once the high moves offshore, winds will gradually become SE this afternoon then more southerly this evening and tonight.
Thus, look for the boundary to lift back to the north this evening and tonight as a warm front out ahead of the approaching trough. The latest HRRR members continue to show isold to scattered showers/ tstms developing along and just south of this warm front during the evening hours which will then lift toward the NNE as the warm front advances northward. Then later overnight as the aforementioned upper trough approaches, a band of prefrontal convection is depicted by many of the HRRR members moving across central NC generally in the 06-12Z timeframe. Forecast soundings do show >=500J/kg CAPE above the typical nighttime low level inversion. That coupled with >40kt bulk shear suggest the potential for isold severe storms tonight with either batch of showers/tstms, but esp later overnight with the prefrontal band. As noted in SWODY1, the primary hazards would be wind and hail, but there is a 2% area for the tornado threat mainly across the western half of central NC. Lows tonight in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

* Two rounds of showers and storms, early Wed morning and again Wed afternoon/evening, will bring a conditional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.

An area of convection, forced by embedded MCVs leaking across the NC mountains early Wed morning, will likely be ongoing somewhere over the county warning area and is expected to continue towards the coast through daybreak. All hazards will be possible, with perhaps a slight edge towards brief tornadoes with this area of convection, but generally a weakening trend is expected.

A primary surface low is expected to be positioned over the OH Valley Wed morning with secondary cyclogenesis beginning along a warm front draped near the NC/VA border. The biggest uncertainty is when secondary cyclogenesis develops along the warm front and how quickly it moves towards the coast. This uncertainty is pretty typical with cyclogenesis based solely on jet dynamics. There has been a noticeable slowing and westward trend among the GEFS surface low locations Wed afternoon as well as hi-res guidance being split into a faster/eastern or slower/western solutions. This will have a significant impact on the available low-lvl moisture and resultant MLCAPE that develops during the afternoon hours. This will likely be the biggest discriminator in the character of convection Wed afternoon (or any at all) as a significant amount of dry air aloft will suppress deep convection, especially if instability is on the weaker side (< 1000 J/kg).

If deep convection were to develop, point soundings suggest mostly unidirectional flow leading to long-straight hodographs which would favor initially a risk for large hail but a transition to mainly a wind threat as dry air aloft and modest low-level lapse rates would favor cool downdrafts and expanding cold pools. This is far from a certainty and is highly conditional on the weak surface low location and all the ingredients coming together during the afternoon hours.
As such, if the slower/western surface low and greater instability solution continues to trend more likely, an upgrade to a slight risk would be needed. High temps will range from upper 70s along and north of the warm front to low 90s across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain.

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LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

* A reinforcing cold frontal passage late Thursday will bring cooler and dry conditions through Saturday.

* Precipitation chances increase Sun into Mon, but forecast confidence in timing is low.

The arrival of a Canadian maritime airmass has trended slower as surface flow remains generally out of the west as the coastal low deepens and lifts towards the Northeast coast. This has resulted in warmer afternoon temperatures and low chances for showers/storms to remain in the forecast for Thursday. Ahead of the front, H5 temperatures around -20C (well below the 10th percentile of GSO climatology) will contribute to steep mid-level lapse rates. Even though dew points will be in the low 50s, this should still result in around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon and support isolated to scattered showers as 40 to 60m height falls spread across the region. NWP guidance suggest rapid deepening of the coastal low and broad high pressure settling into the Mid- Mississippi Valley will finally turn the surface winds out of the northwest and usher in the Canadian maritime airmass into the area Thursday evening with CAA continuing overnight.

Cooler and drier weather is expected to continue through at least Saturday when highs are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Forecast confidence greatly decreases Sun and into early next week with considerable timing differences on the strength and departure of the broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. Using cluster analysis, the most-likely solution (consisting of 29 out of 100 members) keeps the broad trough over the eastern CONUS and generally northerly flow into the southern Mid-Atlantic, potentially favoring cooler weather continuing for Memorial Day.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Through 06Z Wednesday: VFR conditions with ample mid and high clouds moving across the Carolinas attm will continue to be the case through much of the TAF period. A warm front will approach and lift NEWD across central NC late today, followed by a pre-frontal band of shower/tstms during the late overnight hours. Will include this activity, and assoc sub-VFR conditions, beginning with the 12Z TAF cycle. Winds will be light from the NE attm through about 18Z before becoming SE 10kt or less.

Outlook: Showers and tstms will increase in coverage after 06Z Wednesday as a prefrontal trough moves across the area. Look for sub-VFR conditions as this activity moves across the area. Isolated showers/tstms and sub-VFR conditions will be possible again during the daytime Wednesday. VFR conditions will then return for the latter portion of the week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.