Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
December 8, 2024 1:44 AM EST (06:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:32 AM Sunset 5:22 PM Moonrise 1:01 PM Moonset 12:00 AM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KMRX 080548 AAC AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1248 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Dewpoints have failed to recover despite the end of afternoon mixing, thus, the main changes with the evening update was blending NBM10th and HRRR to lower those values. Extended this blend through Sunday afternoon and have re-sent FWF to update RHs there. Minor tweaks to hourly temperatures to account for this dry air as well, but no significant changes to the overnight mins occurred. Lastly, both low and mid level water vapor imagery loops from GOES-16 show a subtle impulse moving through the area. This lead to the development of a relatively narrow cloud deck across portions of the central and northern forecast area. Have reflected this in the sky cover grids but optimistic this should be short- lived as the impulse swings through.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key messages:
1. Breezy conditions expected tonight in the higher terrain of our Virginia counties.
2. Much warmer tomorrow with highs in the 50s.
Discussion:
Dry weather expected this period with a weak ridge over the Southeast and high pressure at the surface. Gusty winds will be possible on the highest ridgetops in Southwest Virgina late tonight as 850 mb westerly winds increase to 40 to 45 knots. The higher terrain in Southwest Virginia may see gusts of 35 mph late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a quiet night with clear skies allowing temps to drop into the lower 30s and upper 20s in the Tennessee Valley.
Tomorrow will be warmer as southerly flow continues to bring warm, moist air into the region. Cloud cover will increase in the afternoon ahead of the next system approaching from the west.
Highs will be slightly above normal in the mid or upper 50s.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain will be moving into the region Sunday night lingering through Tuesday night.
2. Light snow is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night on the backside of the system. Cooler temps later in the week.
Discussion:
Sunday night will usher in a completely different weather regime for the next several days. The primary forcing mechanism behind this change will be a fast moving low/shortwave coming out of the southern plains headed towards the Great Lakes Region to merge into the mean flow of the northern stream. As it moves across the region it will also help drive thorugh a cold front during the middle of the week.
Multiple days of precipitation are expected as surface winds turn more southerly on Sunday before the rain begins, this will draw up warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Front edge of the precipitation will likely move onto the Plateau and southeast TN sometime between sunset and midnight Sunday night, spreading northeast across the entire southern Appalachian Region before sunrise on Monday. The initial rain will come right as the shortwave zips across the Ohio Valley overnight... And we'll likely get some breaks in the precipitation during the daytime on Monday behind the shortwave, but before the arrival of the front.
Surface low riding up along the front will reload the atmosphere with additional warm and moist air from the GoM with Tuesday looking like the next round of moderate to heavy precipitation with this system. This will also be the time-frame when the warmest air is in place with highs climbing into the 60's for much of the Valley, and we cannot completely rule out seeing some embedded thunderstorms within the greater precipitation shield.
When everything is said and done, it looks likely that most places will see at least an inch of rain between Sunday night and Wednesday morning... and some of the orographically enhanced rainfall areas should be able to climb above the 2 inch mark.
Rain begins to exit the area on Wednesday with some possible wrap around showers on the backside of the low which is fairly typical for these type of events. After the front moves through on Wednesday temperatures will quickly drop and we'll see about a 20 degree difference between Tuesday and Wednesdays high temperatures. Any lingering precipitation could come down in the form of light snow, especially across the higher elevations of northeast TN and southwest VA.
Remainder of the work week will remain colder and drier behind the front with overnight lows below freezing and daytime highs in the 40's. Another system may try to move thorugh over the weekend, but deterministic models this far out have a LARGE array of solutions, so confidence is very low on what the upcoming weekend will bring at this time.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
VFR conditions look to prevail through the end of the period.
However, southwest flow will be bringing SHRA into the southern TN valley be the end of the period. Thus, will include a mention of VCSH with increasingly overcast conditions at CHA in the tail end of the 06z TAF Period. Rain doesn't look to make it to KTYS and certainly not KTRI. Otherwise, strong flow just above the surface to the north of KTRI still justifies having LLWS mentioned there through just after daybreak this morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 46 61 55 / 20 100 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 46 60 52 / 10 100 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 56 44 57 52 / 10 100 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 43 56 46 / 0 100 70 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1248 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Dewpoints have failed to recover despite the end of afternoon mixing, thus, the main changes with the evening update was blending NBM10th and HRRR to lower those values. Extended this blend through Sunday afternoon and have re-sent FWF to update RHs there. Minor tweaks to hourly temperatures to account for this dry air as well, but no significant changes to the overnight mins occurred. Lastly, both low and mid level water vapor imagery loops from GOES-16 show a subtle impulse moving through the area. This lead to the development of a relatively narrow cloud deck across portions of the central and northern forecast area. Have reflected this in the sky cover grids but optimistic this should be short- lived as the impulse swings through.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key messages:
1. Breezy conditions expected tonight in the higher terrain of our Virginia counties.
2. Much warmer tomorrow with highs in the 50s.
Discussion:
Dry weather expected this period with a weak ridge over the Southeast and high pressure at the surface. Gusty winds will be possible on the highest ridgetops in Southwest Virgina late tonight as 850 mb westerly winds increase to 40 to 45 knots. The higher terrain in Southwest Virginia may see gusts of 35 mph late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a quiet night with clear skies allowing temps to drop into the lower 30s and upper 20s in the Tennessee Valley.
Tomorrow will be warmer as southerly flow continues to bring warm, moist air into the region. Cloud cover will increase in the afternoon ahead of the next system approaching from the west.
Highs will be slightly above normal in the mid or upper 50s.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain will be moving into the region Sunday night lingering through Tuesday night.
2. Light snow is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night on the backside of the system. Cooler temps later in the week.
Discussion:
Sunday night will usher in a completely different weather regime for the next several days. The primary forcing mechanism behind this change will be a fast moving low/shortwave coming out of the southern plains headed towards the Great Lakes Region to merge into the mean flow of the northern stream. As it moves across the region it will also help drive thorugh a cold front during the middle of the week.
Multiple days of precipitation are expected as surface winds turn more southerly on Sunday before the rain begins, this will draw up warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Front edge of the precipitation will likely move onto the Plateau and southeast TN sometime between sunset and midnight Sunday night, spreading northeast across the entire southern Appalachian Region before sunrise on Monday. The initial rain will come right as the shortwave zips across the Ohio Valley overnight... And we'll likely get some breaks in the precipitation during the daytime on Monday behind the shortwave, but before the arrival of the front.
Surface low riding up along the front will reload the atmosphere with additional warm and moist air from the GoM with Tuesday looking like the next round of moderate to heavy precipitation with this system. This will also be the time-frame when the warmest air is in place with highs climbing into the 60's for much of the Valley, and we cannot completely rule out seeing some embedded thunderstorms within the greater precipitation shield.
When everything is said and done, it looks likely that most places will see at least an inch of rain between Sunday night and Wednesday morning... and some of the orographically enhanced rainfall areas should be able to climb above the 2 inch mark.
Rain begins to exit the area on Wednesday with some possible wrap around showers on the backside of the low which is fairly typical for these type of events. After the front moves through on Wednesday temperatures will quickly drop and we'll see about a 20 degree difference between Tuesday and Wednesdays high temperatures. Any lingering precipitation could come down in the form of light snow, especially across the higher elevations of northeast TN and southwest VA.
Remainder of the work week will remain colder and drier behind the front with overnight lows below freezing and daytime highs in the 40's. Another system may try to move thorugh over the weekend, but deterministic models this far out have a LARGE array of solutions, so confidence is very low on what the upcoming weekend will bring at this time.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
VFR conditions look to prevail through the end of the period.
However, southwest flow will be bringing SHRA into the southern TN valley be the end of the period. Thus, will include a mention of VCSH with increasingly overcast conditions at CHA in the tail end of the 06z TAF Period. Rain doesn't look to make it to KTYS and certainly not KTRI. Otherwise, strong flow just above the surface to the north of KTRI still justifies having LLWS mentioned there through just after daybreak this morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 46 61 55 / 20 100 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 46 60 52 / 10 100 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 56 44 57 52 / 10 100 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 43 56 46 / 0 100 70 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
Edit Hide
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE