Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM Moonset 2:42 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 221835 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 235 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Key Messages:
1. Cool and dry conditions for the area through Friday night.
2. Increasing rain chances Saturday in southern sections, spreading northward Saturday night.
Discussion:
Dry and cool conditions can be expected through Friday night, with no significant weather impacts. Surface high pressure will be building across the area tonight and Friday, and be centered over our area by Friday night. A front will be nearly stationary to our south across southern AL and GA. The mid and upper level pattern will be characterized by a NW flow with a closed low over the Northeast and a ridge over the Plains. Below normal temperatures will be the story for us in this pattern, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s in northern sections tonight and Friday night.
The chance of rain begins to rise on Saturday as upstream convection over the Midwest on Friday will travel SE on the north side of the aforementioned front, and remnants of this activity may reach our area by Saturday morning in a weakened state. The best rain chances Saturday will be in our southern sections closer to the front, which lifts northward into central AL. With the front to our south, any convection Saturday will be elevated and unlikely to pose a severe threat, with MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday night.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and storms Sunday through at least Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches the region.
2. A marginal severe threat seems possible along with possibly some minor flooding issues.
3. High temps will be about 5 degrees below normal in the 70s.
Discussion:
A wet pattern will be in place Sunday through at least Tuesday. On Sunday, near zonal flow will be present in the upper levels. A surface low will be near Texas/New Mexico with a warm front extending eastward all the way to the Southeast or Tennessee Valley.
By Tuesday, the low moves into the Midwest or Ohio Valley. The severe threat looks marginal with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots and CAPE reaching 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the afternoon. Forecast rain amounts are fairly high ranging from 1.5 inches to 3 inches with the lowest amounts in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Heavy downpours seem likely at times with Pwat values around 1.6 to 1.7 inches which is around the 90th percentile according to sounding climatology. Some minor flooding issues seem possible. By Wednesday, it looks like a weak frontal passage will occur and rain chances will be lower and more summer like. Temps will be below normal due largely to rain and cloud cover.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Gusty winds at TYS and TRI this afternoon will be the main aviation impact this period, with gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected until around 00-01Z. As high pressure continues to build over the area tonight and tomorrow, winds should remain under 10 kt for the rest of the forecas period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 77 55 72 / 10 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 72 51 71 / 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 50 73 51 71 / 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 67 43 70 / 10 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 235 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Key Messages:
1. Cool and dry conditions for the area through Friday night.
2. Increasing rain chances Saturday in southern sections, spreading northward Saturday night.
Discussion:
Dry and cool conditions can be expected through Friday night, with no significant weather impacts. Surface high pressure will be building across the area tonight and Friday, and be centered over our area by Friday night. A front will be nearly stationary to our south across southern AL and GA. The mid and upper level pattern will be characterized by a NW flow with a closed low over the Northeast and a ridge over the Plains. Below normal temperatures will be the story for us in this pattern, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s in northern sections tonight and Friday night.
The chance of rain begins to rise on Saturday as upstream convection over the Midwest on Friday will travel SE on the north side of the aforementioned front, and remnants of this activity may reach our area by Saturday morning in a weakened state. The best rain chances Saturday will be in our southern sections closer to the front, which lifts northward into central AL. With the front to our south, any convection Saturday will be elevated and unlikely to pose a severe threat, with MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday night.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and storms Sunday through at least Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches the region.
2. A marginal severe threat seems possible along with possibly some minor flooding issues.
3. High temps will be about 5 degrees below normal in the 70s.
Discussion:
A wet pattern will be in place Sunday through at least Tuesday. On Sunday, near zonal flow will be present in the upper levels. A surface low will be near Texas/New Mexico with a warm front extending eastward all the way to the Southeast or Tennessee Valley.
By Tuesday, the low moves into the Midwest or Ohio Valley. The severe threat looks marginal with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots and CAPE reaching 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the afternoon. Forecast rain amounts are fairly high ranging from 1.5 inches to 3 inches with the lowest amounts in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Heavy downpours seem likely at times with Pwat values around 1.6 to 1.7 inches which is around the 90th percentile according to sounding climatology. Some minor flooding issues seem possible. By Wednesday, it looks like a weak frontal passage will occur and rain chances will be lower and more summer like. Temps will be below normal due largely to rain and cloud cover.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
Gusty winds at TYS and TRI this afternoon will be the main aviation impact this period, with gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected until around 00-01Z. As high pressure continues to build over the area tonight and tomorrow, winds should remain under 10 kt for the rest of the forecas period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 77 55 72 / 10 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 72 51 71 / 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 50 73 51 71 / 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 67 43 70 / 10 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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