Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM Moonset 6:22 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 141415 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1015 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Currently a very weak boundary is pushing through the southern Appalachians region which is allowing for a few showers to develop along it. This boundary will continue to move east/northeast throughout the day and as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours will possibly act as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development if the skies are able to clear out and the sun makes it to the surface. Low level clouds are being stubborn to evaporate and wherever they linger will see temperatures kept in check from the sun. Have backed off a bit on temperatures where the clouds are the thickest, but we should start to see more pronounced breaks in the cloud deck as the morning and afternoon wears on.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Key Messages:
1. Low-end marginal severe weather threat today primarily for hail and damaging winds. Flooding is a possible threat as well.
2. Patchy dense fog possible this morning and tomorrow morning.
Discussion:
The closed low is currently undergoing phasing back into the mean flow, which will allow some ridging to finally punch in for the mid to late week. Before that happens, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A weak low pressure center and frontal system will position over the east coast again today, similar to yesterday. Peak heating and just the right conditions, may allow an environment for marginal severe thunderstorms.
Grabbing a point forecast sounding for northeast TN for around 10 PM tonight, does depict a marginal severe weather set-up, with >30kt effective shear, 6.7 C/km mid-level LR's, CAPE just under 1000 J/kg, DCAPE approaching 900, and some CAPE within the hail growth zone. SPC Day 1 does categorize the "threat" area for hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not likely, as low level shear, SRH, and the wind field in general are just not conducive. If things follow what CAMs show, precipitation will increase in coverage from the southwest to northeast this afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms appear to look stronger as they pass the I-40 corridor after 00z. Precipitation is forecast to exit the area in the middle of the night tonight. Overall, it appears like a low-end marginal threat, but should still be aware of the strong to severe storm potential.
Afternoon highs today will trend warmer than they have been with readings approaching or exceeding climatological norms. Due to excessive moisture lately and more to come for some areas, late night/early morning dense fog is possible in spots so be extra cautious for the morning commute this morning and Thursday morning.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Key Messages:
1. Warmer and drier on Thursday.
2. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible sometime in the Friday to Saturday morning time frame, potentially in multiple rounds.
3. An unsettled pattern continues next week with rain chances each day and above normal temperatures.
Discussion:
Thursday will be one of our driest days for the past week and into the next week too. Ridging will be building across the region Thursday, and the notable weather for Thursday will be the very warm temperatures climbing above seasonal normals, and afternoon highs reaching into the 80s.
The warm, unstable air mass will prime the pump for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday as a strong system crossing the Great Lakes drives through a front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The timing of this front and the associated thunderstorms will play an important factor in the type and coverage of the severe threat. If the front holds up a bit and comes through in the overnight hours, typically this leads to a wind driven event with possible strong straight-line winds with thunderstorms. However if the front is able to come in earlier in the afternoon/evening hours, the daytime heating and tightening pressure gradient could spark off storms ahead of the main line, leading to all modes of severe weather.
There remains much uncertainty regarding the timing as the deterministic models are in disagreement, leading to lower confidence in the probabilistic guidance. We could also see multiple rounds of storms during the Friday to Saturday morning period.
However, at this time signs are pointing to the most likely scenario being the Friday night timing, with upstream convection spreading into the area, and damaging straight line winds as the highest potential threat. Rain chances should be waning through Saturday with the frontal passage likely to be in the morning.
The front stalls out near or just south of the Tennesee Valley, lifting back to the north on Sunday. This could be a focus for additional storms for the start of next week. Low chance PoPs and above normal temperatures will be in the forecast for each day as high pressure over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic appears to be the main feature that will drive our weather.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
VC SHRA at CHA and TRI this morning, with CHA and TYS experiencing MVFR CIG. CIG for the most part will improve towards the later morning and early afternoon hours. ISOLD to SCTD showers and thunderstorms enter the picture from SW to NE this afternoon and evening, lasting into the overnight hours at TYS and TRI.
PROB30 changes were made at CHA with removing thunder and adding thunder at TRI, given recent CAMs trends. Overnight, CHA and TYS forecast to improve to VFR once precipitation ends. Precipitation ends later at TRI with the possibility of IFR VSBY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 65 86 70 / 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 65 86 70 / 40 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 64 86 69 / 30 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 60 83 66 / 50 30 20 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1015 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Currently a very weak boundary is pushing through the southern Appalachians region which is allowing for a few showers to develop along it. This boundary will continue to move east/northeast throughout the day and as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours will possibly act as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development if the skies are able to clear out and the sun makes it to the surface. Low level clouds are being stubborn to evaporate and wherever they linger will see temperatures kept in check from the sun. Have backed off a bit on temperatures where the clouds are the thickest, but we should start to see more pronounced breaks in the cloud deck as the morning and afternoon wears on.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Key Messages:
1. Low-end marginal severe weather threat today primarily for hail and damaging winds. Flooding is a possible threat as well.
2. Patchy dense fog possible this morning and tomorrow morning.
Discussion:
The closed low is currently undergoing phasing back into the mean flow, which will allow some ridging to finally punch in for the mid to late week. Before that happens, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A weak low pressure center and frontal system will position over the east coast again today, similar to yesterday. Peak heating and just the right conditions, may allow an environment for marginal severe thunderstorms.
Grabbing a point forecast sounding for northeast TN for around 10 PM tonight, does depict a marginal severe weather set-up, with >30kt effective shear, 6.7 C/km mid-level LR's, CAPE just under 1000 J/kg, DCAPE approaching 900, and some CAPE within the hail growth zone. SPC Day 1 does categorize the "threat" area for hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not likely, as low level shear, SRH, and the wind field in general are just not conducive. If things follow what CAMs show, precipitation will increase in coverage from the southwest to northeast this afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms appear to look stronger as they pass the I-40 corridor after 00z. Precipitation is forecast to exit the area in the middle of the night tonight. Overall, it appears like a low-end marginal threat, but should still be aware of the strong to severe storm potential.
Afternoon highs today will trend warmer than they have been with readings approaching or exceeding climatological norms. Due to excessive moisture lately and more to come for some areas, late night/early morning dense fog is possible in spots so be extra cautious for the morning commute this morning and Thursday morning.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
Key Messages:
1. Warmer and drier on Thursday.
2. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible sometime in the Friday to Saturday morning time frame, potentially in multiple rounds.
3. An unsettled pattern continues next week with rain chances each day and above normal temperatures.
Discussion:
Thursday will be one of our driest days for the past week and into the next week too. Ridging will be building across the region Thursday, and the notable weather for Thursday will be the very warm temperatures climbing above seasonal normals, and afternoon highs reaching into the 80s.
The warm, unstable air mass will prime the pump for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday as a strong system crossing the Great Lakes drives through a front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The timing of this front and the associated thunderstorms will play an important factor in the type and coverage of the severe threat. If the front holds up a bit and comes through in the overnight hours, typically this leads to a wind driven event with possible strong straight-line winds with thunderstorms. However if the front is able to come in earlier in the afternoon/evening hours, the daytime heating and tightening pressure gradient could spark off storms ahead of the main line, leading to all modes of severe weather.
There remains much uncertainty regarding the timing as the deterministic models are in disagreement, leading to lower confidence in the probabilistic guidance. We could also see multiple rounds of storms during the Friday to Saturday morning period.
However, at this time signs are pointing to the most likely scenario being the Friday night timing, with upstream convection spreading into the area, and damaging straight line winds as the highest potential threat. Rain chances should be waning through Saturday with the frontal passage likely to be in the morning.
The front stalls out near or just south of the Tennesee Valley, lifting back to the north on Sunday. This could be a focus for additional storms for the start of next week. Low chance PoPs and above normal temperatures will be in the forecast for each day as high pressure over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic appears to be the main feature that will drive our weather.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
VC SHRA at CHA and TRI this morning, with CHA and TYS experiencing MVFR CIG. CIG for the most part will improve towards the later morning and early afternoon hours. ISOLD to SCTD showers and thunderstorms enter the picture from SW to NE this afternoon and evening, lasting into the overnight hours at TYS and TRI.
PROB30 changes were made at CHA with removing thunder and adding thunder at TRI, given recent CAMs trends. Overnight, CHA and TYS forecast to improve to VFR once precipitation ends. Precipitation ends later at TRI with the possibility of IFR VSBY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 65 86 70 / 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 65 86 70 / 40 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 64 86 69 / 30 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 60 83 66 / 50 30 20 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southeast
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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