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AMZ131 Alligator River- 902 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves a moderate chop.

AMZ100 902 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure remains in control for much of the week. A cold front could approach the region late week and this weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 030055 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 855 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control for much of the week as low pressure this morning shifts further offshore. A weak and mostly dry cold front will cross the area Saturday, with high pressure building back in from the west thereafter.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 855 PM Mon...No changes to previous thinking. Latest analysis shows 1025mb high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic, in control of the weather pattern across the eastern US. Another mostly clear and nearly calm night inland means effective radiational cooling once again with temperatures easily falling into the upper 50s across the coastal plain with some mid 50s in the normally colder sheltered locations. Thus will be forecasting lows on the low end of the guidance envelope. Similar to this morning, some very shallow fog is possible. Additionally, the recent high res guidance is indicating the potential for a widespread stratus cloud deck developing late over the coastal plain (along and west of Highway 17). Along the coast, steady northerly winds will keep lows in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 230 PM Mon...Strong ridging aloft will continue to build overhead from the west, making for another pleasant and dry day across eastern NC. Temps near to slightly above normal with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Mon...Mainly dry weather continues through much of the coming week as high pressure to the north and west remains in control. A weak cold front could bring limited rain chances Friday, but mild high pressure returns shortly thereafter for the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Strong ridging aloft very slowly builds overhead from the west through the middle of next week, with very dry air aloft keeping a dry forecast in place through much of the week. At the surface the patten only very slowly changes, with high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic by midweek, then off the New England coast by late week. The end result is persistent light NE winds and temps around normal through Thursday.

Friday through the Weekend...The next feature that will require monitoring is a cold front that could reach the area Saturday.
Early indications are that there will be limited moisture transport ahead of the feature, and only low end chance POPs are in the forecast ahead of the front later Friday and Friday night, with most of the area expected to remain dry.

Mild high pressure builds in from the west behind the front through the rest of the weekend, with mainly dry conditions and temps potentially trending below normal. Still, no significant hazards for land areas through the extended period at this point.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 600 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through most of the period. However, similar to last night and early this morning, there is a chance for shallow MVFR/IFR fog at PGV. In addition some the guidance is now indicating the potential for a period of IFR ceilings in stratus clouds from 9-13Z. Will continue to monitor but for now will introduce a few-sct low cloud group. Better chances for some mid clouds and cumulus to develop Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Mainly VFR through the coming week as high pressure ridges in from the north and west. A weak cold front will approach the area Friday, but limited moisture will keep aviation impacts minimal.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 855 PM Mon...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs show N/NE winds 10-20 kt, still gusting to 25 kt near the Gulf Stream, with seas 5-8 ft, highest north of Ocracoke Inlet. High pressure will remain over the waters through Tuesday, with modest improvement to winds and seas. NE winds 10-20 kt will continue through the period. Seas will subside to 4-7 ft Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Elevated seas persist through the coming week as very slowly subsiding medium period NE swell from low pressure sliding further away from the eastern US is replaced by building medium to long period swell from strengthening Philippe, which will remain well offshore into the weekend.
Seas remain 6+ feet, especially south of Oregon Inlet, at least through next weekend, with only modest contribution from local windswell.

Wind-wise, moderate NE winds prevail through midweek as ridging continues inland with weak troughing offshore. Winds shift more easterly later in the week as a weak cold front approaches, but no significant wind threats expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM Mon...Strong winds around the north and west sides of low pressure sliding further away over the North Atlantic will continue to bring large medium to long period swell through this evening, with very dangerous surf conditions north of Cape Hatteras, where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Dangerous surf conditions should grad subside overnight.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-156- 158.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:32 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
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Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:15 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

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