Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manns Harbor, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Confidence remains low to moderate regarding thunderstorm strength and coverage through tonight

Early this morning, a stalled frontal boundary was draped from SW Virginia east through the Chesapeake Bay region. Convection ongoing along this boundary is expected to remain focused across Virginia this morning, as the frontal boundary isn't expected to make much progress south. Increasing southerly flow through the day should then shift this boundary back north, keeping it well removed from ENC. South of the front, modest low-mid level convergence should continue to support isolated shower and thunderstorm development from the Atlantic waters north through the nearby coastal areas of ENC. Through the day, the low-mid level convergence is expected to weaken, which will then relegate any convective potential to the afternoon seabreeze.
The overall lack of convection along the seabreeze yesterday was likely due to somewhat drier air aloft and residual ridging aloft. The overall synoptic pattern looks fairly similar for today. However, ridging shifting a bit further east of the area, plus the return of 2" PWATs, may allow a bit more convective potential along the seabreeze compared to yesterday, and the forecast reflects this. It should be noted, though, that short term guidance shows a fairly muted seabreeze once again which makes the convective forecast less certain.

Low-level thicknesses are forecast to decrease a bit compared to yesterday, and this should allow highs to top out 2-3 degrees lower than yesterday. Boundary layer dewpoints shouldn't change much compared to yesterday, but the slightly lower temperatures should keep heat indices down some, with a lowered risk of reaching heat advisory criteria. In light of this, heat headlines are not anticipated for today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Mid-level ridging shifting offshore will allow upper level troughing to edge closer to the eastern Carolinas this evening and tonight, which will support an overall increase in large scale forcing across the region. The approach of the upper trough should also help encourage a frontal boundary to edge closer to the local area as well. The net effect should be an increased coverage of thunderstorms from central NC north into central/eastern Virginia. For ENC, the question, then, is whether or not any of this convection will be able to survive into the area or not. Short-term guidance is mixed, ranging from isolated thunderstorms tonight on one side of the spectrum, to a slow-moving MCS moving east through the area on the other end of the spectrum. Blended guidance favors the isolated thunderstorm scenario, and the forecast will reflect that for now. However, this is something we will continue to assess in later forecast updates. As the front and upper trough approach the area tonight, deep layer shear will subsequently increase, but only to about 15-20kt. This combined with a stabilizing boundary layer should keep the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms at a minimum. However, this could be enough to help maintain some thunderstorm organization through the night if convection can survive this far east. In the reasonably worst case scenario, a slow- moving MCS moving through the area would favor gusty winds, heavy rain, and the potential for minor flooding.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 0445 Tuesday...A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has marginal EROs for Days 2-4 for at least portions of the forecast area. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts.
Temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo.

This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic coast, approaching the area but currently forecast to remain near the NC/VA border.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- MVFR/IFR conditions possible through early Wednesday morning

- Confidence remains low regarding the TSRA potential through Wednesday night

Satellite imagery and surface observations show scattered areas of low CIGs across portions of ENC at this time. Some expansion of the low CIGs is possible through early Wednesday morning, and amendments may be needed if confidence increases at any TAF site. For now, I opted to continue running with VFR TAFs through the night due to recent trends in satellite and surface obs.
Any low CIGs that develop should mix out by 14-15z Wednesday.
Like yesterday, it looks like we'll have at least one more day of limited TSRA potential along the seabreeze. However, slightly better lift and increased moisture may allow a bump up in the risk of TSRA today. In light of this, I've kept the PROB30 mention in for all TAF sites, but it should be noted that confidence is low regarding the TSRA potential. While I kept the PROB30 groups in, I shortened the time window of TSRA potential as a way to reflect the lowered confidence. By Wednesday evening, TSRA developing across central NC may make a run at ENC, but confidence remains low to moderate, and the TAFs will not reflect this potential yet.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...

Improving conditions early this morning with winds becoming SW 15-20 kts, and then winds increase again during the afternoon and evening to SW 15-25 kts. Seas mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...High pressure remains centered over the Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt (occasionally higher gusts possible), highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term period, however the dominant period through at least midweek will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy 3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of weakening 1-2ft long period swell out of the east.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.