Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Key Messages:

1. Tranquil weather continues for most areas.

2. Light rain possible in the south late tonight.

Discussion:

An upper level low will remain situated over the eastern Great Lakes and New England area through the period, keeping northwest flow overhead and a cool advection pattern in place in the low levels. As such, tranquil weather is expected through the short term for most areas as surface high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. We will likely have some gusty winds again today in the north as pressure gradients will still be relatively strong there. But the winds shouldn't be as high as they were yesterday, nor should those gusty conditions last as long into the evening. Elsewhere, models show some isentropic lift moving into middle TN and the southern TN valley areas late tonight, producing some isolated to scattered rain showers as it does so.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Key Messages:

1. Very active/rainy long term period it seems.

2. Concerns for severe storms and/or flooding seem low. But they're not zero.

Discussion:

The long term period looks active and fairly rainy. Northwest upper flow in the short term will transition to zonal flow across much of the central and eastern CONUS as the New England upper low weakens and shifts further northeast and a western ridge breaks down. This will present several opportunities for rainfall across the southern Appalachian region through the long term period as a few weak systems eject east from the southern plains and spark off showers and thunderstorms over our region. I don't see any particular time that looks particularly concerning in terms of severe weather or flooding. Deterministic guidance would suggest that Tue could see some thunderstorm activity that may be strong to severe as a surface low associated with one of those southern plains impulses moves through TN/KY, bring enough southerly flow and warm air advection to our CWA to hike MUCAPE values up over 2,000 J/kg in the south. But pattern recognition says this is a marginal case so we'll just wait and see how the weekend plays out first. However, with repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the coming week, some flooding issues may arise. Ensemble guidance shows forecast PWAT values late Sun through Tue night to be in the 90th percentile for this time of year. At the same time, ensembles show very low (generally less than 15%) chances of seeing over 1" of rain in 6hrs at any point through Wed, so the flooding threat is definitely conditional.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue. Rain will move into the southern part of the region tomorrow morning likely impacting only CHA.
Winds will decrease around sunset and will be lighter tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 73 59 76 / 30 50 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 71 57 70 / 10 30 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 50 71 56 70 / 10 20 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 70 51 69 / 0 10 20 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.