Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:12PM Friday April 16, 2021 7:41 AM EDT (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:42AMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 161124 AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 724 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

UPDATE. FOR 12Z AVIATION.

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) .

Today will be dry, but chances for light rain showers will begin to increase tonight.

The short term period will be marked by quasi-zonal flow aloft with a slowly retreating upper low to our northeast and an advancing short wave trough to our west. Today will be dry with an increase in high/mid clouds. High temperatures will generally run some 5-7 degrees below normal. Moisture will be increasing tonight as the short wave advances toward our area, and some light rain showers/sprinkles will begin moving in from the west/southwest late tonight. Given limited moisture transport, weak forcing, and the lack of instability, any precip amounts will be quite light. Northern areas will stay dry through the end of tonight.

Temperatures this morning still look to support at least some patchy frost around in the frost advisory area, so will allow it to continue as is.

LW

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) .

Key Messages:

1. Scattered light rain showers/drizzle on Saturday with low-end rain chances N of I-40 on Sunday.

2. Dry for much of next week except low-end rain chances late Tuesday through Wednesday.

3. Below normal temps this weekend, warming to near normal Mon and Tues, then below normal again Wednesday and Thursday with frost possible Thursday morning.

Discussion:

Saturday through Sunday Night .

Overall, broad mid/upper troughing will dominate from the Rockies across the N half of the CONUS with a belt of quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of states. A shortwave moving through this flow will quickly progress from the middle/lower MS Valley through the TN Valley Sat with a weak associated surface low moving along the Gulf coast. In response to this surface low and mid/upper shortwave to the N, a frontal boundary near the Gulf coast will bulge slightly northward Sat with WAA and isentropic ascent aided by a 120-140 kt upper jet over the TN Valley leading to a swath of light rain N of the front. The TN Valley and S Appalachians will stay N of the front, so it will be a chilly rain which will hold highs in the mid 50's to low 60's. The fast movement of the system and short duration of Gulf moisture transport will keep QPF light, so expect to have off and on showers with breaks in between instead of a continuous all day rain. As the shortwave exits E Sat night, drier air will quickly end shower chances from W to E. Lingering cloud cover the first half of the night will keep lows from falling too much (upper 30's/mid 40's). For Sun, a quick moving N stream mid/upper shortwave will move from the mid MS Valley through the lower OH Valley/central Appalachians. This feature is moisture starved, but mid-level PVA and some modest upper jet support will lead to slight chances of isolated showers N of I-40 from the afternoon through the evening. Highs Sun will stay below normal in the low 60's, dropping into the mid 30's/low 40's Sun night as a large surface high builds in behind the exiting shortwave, but not confident enough yet to put frost in the forecast since coverage will likely be very small.

Monday through Thursday .

The aforementioned surface high will continue to build across the TN Valley and S Appalachians Mon then move gradually offshore of the Carolinas late Tues ahead of a strong mid/upper trough diving into the MS Valley. Rising heights and thicknesses combined with mostly sunny skies support highs reaching the mid/upper 60's Mon, followed by a boost into the upper 60's/low 70's Tues as southerly flow sets up behind the departing surface high and ahead of the big trough. Stayed with NBM slight chance PoPs Tues afternoon as the trough and associated cold front approach from the W. However, the GEFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble means suggest that the greatest potential for showers holds off until Tues night into Wed, and with the energy still pretty far W on Tues, would not be surprised to see Tues dry in future forecast packages. Despite the best chances for rain tied to the frontal passage Tues night into Wed, questions remain regarding how much moisture will be available, so stayed with NBM slight chance PoPs at that time as well. Behind the cold front Wed night, the deep trough will dig into the OH and TN Valleys and NE CONUS and persist through late week. Dry air filtering in will end rain chances Wed night, but as skies clear, could see quite a bit of frost Thurs morning. Highs Wed and Thurs will fall below normal again into the upper 50's/mid 60's as this deep trough and strongly negative height anomalies set up.

Garuckas

AVIATION. 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

We will see an increase in clouds and a few light showers may be around late in the period mainly CHA. Will include VCSH at CHA late. VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be from the north and west at less than 10kts, then will become light tonight.


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 49 63 46 67 / 0 30 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 46 60 45 65 / 0 20 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 45 61 43 65 / 0 20 40 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 40 58 42 62 / 0 10 40 20 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Anderson-Campbell- Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Scott-Sullivan-Union-Washington.

VA . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington-Wise.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair38°F35°F89%1015.6 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi48 minNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F34°F76%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQT

Wind History from OQT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm6346W5SW7SW8
G15
665N7--N4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm334W5W9
G19
53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW4
2 days agoCalmCalmE3NE3--CalmE5NE53SE43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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