Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:36PM Thursday March 4, 2021 4:35 PM EST (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 041954 AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 254 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SHORT TERM. (Tonight and Friday) .

Surface high pressure continues to bring tranquil weather conditions to the region with temperatures above seasonal normals Aloft. a ridge axis extends through the plains with troughing across the northeast. This places the region under northwest flow aloft through the short term period.

For tonight . quiet weather continues with generally light winds and clear skies. North winds will continue to advect lower dewpoints so went a degree or two below NBM guidance for overnight lows. Lows in the mid to upper 20's are expected across southwest Virginia, extreme northeast Tennessee, and the high terrain of the East Tennessee mountains. Areas in the central and southern valley will see overnight lows in the low to mid 30's.

On Friday, weak shortwave ridging develops across the Tennessee valley as a disturbance moves into the central plains. This will bring continued dry weather with only an increase in mid/upper level cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow but still near or slightly below normal. Low RH values are again a concern with minimum RH expected to fall between 20-30 percent in the afternoon.

Diegan

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) .

Dry weather will prevail for the weekend and much of next week with chances for rain by Thursday. Temperatures are generally below normal for the weekend with a warming trend to above normal next week, possibly in the lower 70s for many by Thursday.

Friday Night through Monday

At the start of the period, surface high pressure will be dominating across the Great Lakes and Northern Tier with a large mid/upper ridge to the west. Troughing will be in place across the northeast with a positively tilted shortwave/weak surface low near the southern Mississippi Valley. This system phases with norththeastern troughing at the start of the period. With the associated jet streak and low-level moisture expected to stay well to our south, no precipitation is expected. The result will only be an increase in cloud cover early in the weekend. Continued northerly flow at the surface comes with upper-level height falls, resulting negative thermal (1,000-500mb thickness) advection. This pattern keeps the weekend dry and seasonally cool with notably cold temperatures by Saturday night, likely in the 20s for many. On the topic of fire weather, efficient daytime mixing will provide continued opportunities for low RH's, possibly falling well into 20% range in many locations. While weak low-level flow/MSLP gradient will likely limit wind speeds, multiple preceding days with similar conditions do increase concerns for fire danger. As is typical, however, higher wind speeds are expected in the mountains, possibly near 20 mph.

Heading into Monday, strong ~1,035mb high pressure is nearly centered over the area, promoting continued subsidence. With northeastern troughing moving off to the east, significant height rises start the week's warming trend. While winds will largely be very light during the day, potential exists for possibly even lower RH values than during the weekend. Accordingly, heightened fire danger remains, especially in high elevation areas of the mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday

By mid-week, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with an ensemble and deterministic consensus for 500mb height anomalies of +10 to +20 dam locally. With the surface high moving off to the east, the combination of southerly flow and positive thickness/thermal advection will continue the warming trend throughout the week. By the end of the period, confidence is increasing for daytime temperatures to reach into the lower 70s across most lower elevation areas. Also, a developing system in the Great Plains mid-week will move into the eastern U.S., bringing chances for rain at the end of the period. Confidence remains limited in the track/strength of the system with the latest GEFS members still suggesting a normalized spread of near 1.0 or above. Ultimately, low-end PoPs were utilized at the end of the period with the overall track/jet pattern, as of this forecast issuance, keeping potential for more persistent rainfall and/or organized convection well to our north and west.

BW

AVIATION. 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Surface high pressure will bring another 24 hour period of VFR conditions with mostly clear skies. Upper level clouds may begin to move into parts of the area Friday morning. Northerly winds are expected to range from 5 to 10 knots through the period for TYS and CHA. TRI could see gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon before subsiding with 5 to 10 knots north winds through the rest of the period.

Diegan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 58 37 56 32 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 52 32 52 29 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 54 32 53 29 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 49 27 49 25 / 0 0 10 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi42 minNNW 7 G 1810.00 miFair67°F26°F21%1018.5 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi42 minN 12 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds66°F27°F23%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQT

Wind History from OQT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW7
G19
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1 day ago4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3333CalmCalm
2 days agoN6N4NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4Calm34553E64N5E5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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