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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kill Devil Hills, NC

July 21, 2024 4:27 AM EDT (08:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM
Moonrise 7:59 PM   Moonset 4:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 302 Am Edt Sun Jul 21 2024

Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early this afternoon, then becoming se late. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat early this afternoon, then increasing to light chop late. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms late this morning and afternoon.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.

Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.

Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 334 Am Edt Sun Jul 21 2024

Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Bermuda high will remain offshore while a front remains stalled to the north. Showers and Thunderstorms will continue affecting the waters through middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 210700 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the Carolinas for the next several days and be the catalyst for a prolonged period of unsettled weather that will continue well into the upcoming work week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 200 AM Sunday...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms appear more likely today

The challenging convective forecast continues again today...

Early this morning, a weak area of low pressure is moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a stationary front trailing southwest into North Carolina. South of that boundary, weakening convection is shifting off the ENC coast, and should be clear of the coast by 4 or 5am. However, with elevated moisture transport overrunning the stalled boundary, I suspect scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to fester across the length of southern NC through sunrise. This is where confidence begins to drop off.

Synoptically, the background southwesterly flow aloft should encourage the boundary to lift back north as a weak warm front through the day, and this appears to be the most likely scenario. In this scenario, the risk of showers and thunderstorms would shift north through the day with the front, with a lower risk to its south. This would be a warmer scenario for the area as well. Not all guidance are sold on this scenario, though. Alternatively, convection developing along the front could tend to retard the northward movement, or even keep the front stalled over the area. In this scenario, the risk of showers and thunderstorms would linger longer than currently forecast. This would also tend to increase rainfall amounts with at least a modest increase in the risk of flooding.
Temperatures wouldn't climb as high, either, especially north of where the front stalls.

One final potential fly in the ointment today is an MCV lifting NE along the SC coast. Convection may tend to stay offshore, but some guidance suggests a glancing round of thunderstorms along the coast this morning as the MCV passes near ENC. Stay tuned for updates through the day on the evolution of the front and the MCV.

Deep layer shear is forecast to be weaker than yesterday, which should also keep thunderstorms less organized today, supporting a lower risk of severe weather. However, a stronger, water- loaded downdraft is still possible, with 40-50 mph wind gusts.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Sunday...

- Another risk of nighttime thunderstorms and flooding tonight

Like the last few nights, it appears there could be another max in thunderstorm activity during the evening and overnight hours as yet another mid-level wave/MCV traverses the region. For now, I've opted to go with a broad-brushed area of scattered thunderstorms in the forecast, but we'll refine this in later updates as we get a better handle on the impact of upstream convection. While gusty winds cannot be ruled out, I expect the main hazard to be river/flash flooding thanks to the continued high PWAT airmass and modest instability.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 AM Sat...Key message: Not much has changed in the forecast of the overall synoptic pattern which will result in unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours. The pattern is expected to persist through the upcoming week as very moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front(s) persists over/near eastern NC through the period.

Sunday night through Saturday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid last week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary, and weak shortwaves emanating out of the Great Lakes-Central US mid level trough will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or higher through the period. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by late next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. PoPs were lowered from the too high NBM which has categorical PoPs (>= 80%) through much of the period. We prefer to keep PoPs in the chance to low end likely (30-60%) which is still above climo (40%). High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 06z Monday/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

- Periods of TSRA to continue to impact ENC over the next 24 hours

- IFR/MVFR CIGs overnight into Sunday morning

From a big picture standpoint, the overall weather pattern will remain the same as it has been the past few days, with a moist and unstable airmass and various boundaries and upper level waves supporting periods of SHRA and TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions. Zooming in, however, the forecast and messaging challenge is trying to determine the timing of each wave of TSRA. In the very near term, ongoing TSRA from KEWN/KMRH to KHSE will continue to push east and offshore by 08z/4am. However, a stationary boundary left behind may continue to be a focus for scattered SHRA and TSRA through the remainder of the night. The most likely scenario is that this boundary will eventually push north during the day Sunday, with the risk of TSRA and low CIGs shifting north with time as well. That said, some guidance hint at the potential for the front to get hung up across ENC. In this scenario, the risk of SHRA and TSRA, as well as sub-VFR CIGs , would last longer than currently advertised in the TAFs.
Finally, yet another upper level wave may move through the region during the evening hours Sunday with yet another round of nighttime TSRA. Stay tuned for frequent updates and amendments in this lower-confidence, but impactful, aviation period.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 220 AM Sun...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into mid next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

- Lower risk of SCA conditions through tonight

- Periods of thunderstorms to impact the waters through tonight

A frontal boundary has moved south into the ENC coastal waters early this morning, and has been a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity since last night. With the front moving in, the pressure gradient has begun to relax, allowing the background flow to weaken some. Further weakening of the background flow is expected through the day today, with west or southwest winds laying down to 5-15kt. It's unclear how quickly the front will lift back north, if at all. If it remains over the area, the winds will stay on the lighter side. If the front lifts north (the most likely scenario), winds will build to 10-15kt by late this afternoon and into this evening. Even in that scenario, though, the risk of 25kt winds appears much lower today compared to yesterday. With that in mind, seas look to hold in the 2-4 ft range through tonight. The main boating hazard through tonight will continue to be the risk of thunderstorms. If the front lifts north, the risk of thunderstorms would shift north through the day as well, then potentially return tonight. If the front lingers around longer, the risk of thunderstorms would consequently follow suite. Where thunderstorms occur, there will be a risk of 30kt+ gusts.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...The flow is expected to remain S/SW 10-20 kt all waters through the period outside of convection. Seas will be 2-4 ft near shore and 3-5 ft at times offshore through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through late next week.

HYDROLOGY
As of 230 AM Sun...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue through the upcoming week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days such that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour with locally higher amounts which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi58 minWSW 14G18 76°F 30.01
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi62 min 76°F2 ft
44086 15 mi32 min 69°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi58 min 77°F 76°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi58 minW 20G23 76°F 85°F30.05
44095 27 mi32 min 69°F4 ft
41082 31 mi148 minWSW 18 76°F 29.97
44079 48 mi148 minWSW 19 78°F 30.02


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 2 sm17 minWSW 0610 smOvercast73°F73°F100%30.01
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 7 sm22 minW 0910 smMostly Cloudy73°F72°F94%30.03


Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sun -- 02:05 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 07:57 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.3
2
am
0
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.8
5
am
1.7
6
am
2.5
7
am
3.1
8
am
3.3
9
am
3.1
10
am
2.4
11
am
1.6
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
-0
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.9
6
pm
3
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
4.1
9
pm
4
10
pm
3.5
11
pm
2.6


Tide / Current for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Sun -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 07:53 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.3
2
am
0
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.7
6
am
2.5
7
am
3.1
8
am
3.3
9
am
3.1
10
am
2.4
11
am
1.6
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
-0
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
1
5
pm
2
6
pm
3
7
pm
3.8
8
pm
4.2
9
pm
4.1
10
pm
3.5
11
pm
2.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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