Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kill Devil Hills, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 7 AM Thu...Behind a cold front, ENC will remain under cyclonic flow today, and the initially northwesterly winds will come around to the west as troughing deepens across interior VA/NC. Dry conditions will prevail for most of the day as very dry air pushes into the low and mid levels. Downslope westerly winds will help push temps into the low to mid 80s still, and winds could gust as high as 30 mph briefly this afternoon during peak mixing. By late this afternoon and into the evening a few showers or even a thunderstorm may develop along a pinned sea breeze as strong forcing from the upper level trough moves overhead. Working against this outcome will be the very dry air at the surface, where we could see 30+ degree dewpoint depressions. However, on the ocean side of the pinned sea breeze, dewpoints should surge back into the 60s, and this may be enough surface moisture for isolated convection to develop.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
As of 7 AM Thu...An upper level trough will remain over the southern Mid-Atlantic tonight with a very dry airmass persisting over ENC. A secondary/reinforcing cold front will move through overnight, with little impacts other than a wind shift to the NW. Some radiational cooling is possible early tonight, but expect conditions to be mixed after midnight. Still, a cooler airmass moving in will yield lows in the low to mid 50s, and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 340 AM Thursday...

Seasonably cooler through the first half of weekend with weak high pressure overhead. Pattern returns to unsettled early next week as a weak boundary sets up across the Southeastern U.S. coast.

By Friday, an anomalous upper low will setup over New England.
Within this regime, a persistent northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow at the surface should support several days of temperatures a few degrees below normal for late May. Guidance suggests highs only in the mid to upper 70s during this time through Sunday, with lows in the low to mid 50s. Of note, some of the coldest guidance suggests lows may fall into the upper 40s in the typically colder spots away from bodies of water.
Given the dry airmass in place, do not anticipate afternoon showers through Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, daytime heating combined with light southerly flow and a weak sea-breeze boundary could lead to a few diurnally-driven showers, though capping PoPs at slight chance for now.

Early next week...Behind the low aloft departing to the NE, weak ridging takes shape ahead of the next system digging across CONUS. Warm front aloft extending from the approaching low lift northward through the area late Sunday afternoon/night. Wide range of model solutions given the plethora of smaller scale details in play with the progression of this next system so details are fuzzy at best; key take away is period is warmer (back into the 80s) and wetter from late Sunday into Wednesday when a stalled boundary may setup across the Carolinas with weak surface lows traversing the area from west to east.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Thu...A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions are holding on across the northeast portion of ENC this morning due to an area of low stratus behind a cold front. These conditions will persist for another hour or so before a combination of dry air and daytime heating help mix out the clouds. Thereafter, VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the day under mostly clear skies. Good mixing this afternoon will bring the potential for wind gusts to reach 25-30 mph. Tonight, VFR conditions will persist with dry air continuing over the region.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday....A dry airmass should support mostly VFR conditions into the weekend. Next best chance for sub-VFR conditions across Eastern NC will be Sunday afternoon into early next week as a stalled boundary sets up across the Carolinas with warming dew points and unsettled weather.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Thu...Small craft conditions will develop this afternoon as SW winds return and strengthen to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Winds this morning behind a cold front will be NW at 10-20 kts, and then will shift to the west by mid morning. This afternoon, SW winds will develop and winds will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, aided by a tightening pressure gradient and increasing thermal gradient. A second cold front will move through the water tonight turning winds to the NW at 15-20 kts with some gusts to 25 kts possible through early tomorrow morning. Seas will be 3-5 ft today, and then will increase to 4-6 ft early tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

Winds remain generally westerly 10-20kt Friday and W to northwesterly through Saturday. Winds return to southerly late Sunday ahead of a stalled boundary across the NC waters through early next week. Weak areas of low pressure may cross the waters from west to east Monday into Tuesday, however winds should remain below SCA levels.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.