Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Valley Wells, CA

DISCUSSION
Heat over the West is upon us with the start of a shift eastward in the coming days. High confidence is hitting heat advisory criteria today with less of a chance on Thursday. Once the day is over, will re-elevate the heat advisory and adjust the product as needed. In the meanwhile, Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 105 degrees remain at above 50 percent today, but does drop off on Thursday. Friday will see the opposite as most areas will see PoE below 50 percent across the San Joaquin Valley. Slightly cooler with near normal max temperatures during the weekend. In the longer term, while PoE of reaching 105 degrees remains low next week, PoE of 100 degrees into 40-60 percent range my next Friday. Therefore, slow warming trend with only minor cooling during the period.

Lingering monsoonal moisture is expected to continue to lead to afternoon thunderstorm chances of 15-25% once again over the Sierra Nevada crest this afternoon. Yet, while the trend is for lower chances of thunderstorms during the remainder of the week, the chances do not drop to near zero. Therefore, while isolated thunderstorms will still occur during the period, best chances will remain over the Crest of the Sierra Nevada. Moreover, until the monsoon makes another push toward Central California, will not expect flooding over the area from heavy rainfall.

Longer range ensemble analysis has the heat dome centered closer to the Mid-West as the associated flow pattern pushes the monsoon moisture back toward Central California late in the weekend. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is indicating that the extended time frame of the 6 to 10 day period will remain on the warm side. Current CPC analysis has a 40-50 percent chance that temperatures will lean toward above normal conditions.

AVIATION
Thunderstorms may lead to mountain-obscuring clouds after 21Z Wed through 03Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR is expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ301>303-305>307- 309>317-319-321.