Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ

DISCUSSION
First shortwave will brush by to the north of us this morning. This will result in a band of light showers developing over western Arizona and moving north with rain chances mainly staying west of Interstate 17 and US 89. Precipitation amounts if any will likely stay below a tenth of an inch. Shower chances should push north by early afternoon and things should remain dry from then until Sunday night. Main thing of note for the rest of the day will be gusty southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

The next feature in the form of a closed upper low over central California will start to drop south on Sunday. A strong polar jet wraps around the south side of this low and moves across our area which will bring even stronger southwesterly winds than seen on Saturday, with winds speeds at 20-30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph. A Wind Advisory will likely be issued within the next couple shifts so use caution if traveling across the region in any type of high profile vehicle Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday night through Tuesday the closed upper level low opens up into a wave and moves across the area. This will bring in some colder air with highs dropping below average Monday and Tuesday.
Precipitation amounts and chances have been going down with each model run but most of the area should see a 30-60% chance of measurable rain Monday into Tuesday. With the colder air in place, snow levels could drop as low as 6000ft Monday night into Tuesday morning with a brief dusting possible over 6500ft. It will continue to be windy Monday as the polar jet energy remains over us although not quite as bad as Sunday's wind, remaining southwesterly at 15-30 mph, gusts 35-40 mph. Wind shifts to the west or northwest on Tuesday but lightens up to 10-20 mph as the wave pushes east.

With the wave pushing east Tuesday night, the upper air pattern becomes more zonal in nature which will keep things dry and bring a slight warming trend to mid April averages for the rest of the week.

AVIATION
Saturday 11/12Z through Sunday 12/12Z...VFR conditions, band of -SHRA/-TSRA may impact KFLG, KSEZ through 14Z.
Same band of -SHRA/-TSRA will move through northeastern Arizona through 18Z. Dry conditions expected after 18Z. Winds increase after 15Z, SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-40kts daytime. Winds decrease to S-SW 5-15kts overnight.

OUTLOOK
Sunday 12/12Z through Tuesday 14/12Z
VFR conditions, no precipitation expected through 06Z Monday. Chance of showers from 06Z Monday onwards. KFLG and KGCN could see a rain snow mix or light snow showers after 00Z Tuesday. Daytime winds Sunday SW 20-30kts, gusts 35-40kts, SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-35kts on Monday. Nighttime winds Sunday into Monday will stay elevated at SW 10-20kts, gusts 25-35kts.

FIRE WEATHER
Today and Sunday...Isolated to scattered light showers or thunderstorms are possible today, mainly in the morning to early afternoon. A wetting rain is not expected. Generally dry on Sunday, but by Sunday evening northwest Arizona sees another shot at showers moving in as the next low pressure system approaches. SW winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today, then 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph Sunday. Minimum RH 15-30%.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures 5-15 degrees below average Monday and Tuesday, then near normal Wednesday. There is a 20-50% chance for light showers Monday, then a 10-30% chance Tuesday. Snow levels may fall as low as 6000ft Monday night into Tuesday morning with a brief dusting of snow possible above 6500-7000ft. Winds SW 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph on Monday, W-NW 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph Tuesday, SW-W 5-15 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH 25-50% Monday falling to 10-20% by Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.