Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
September 23, 2023 2:22 AM MDT (08:22 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM Sunset 7:12PM Moonrise 2:47PM Moonset 12:00AM
Area Discussion for - Flagstaff, AZ
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FXUS65 KFGZ 230330 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 830 PM MST Fri Sep 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast over northern Arizona for tonight through Saturday afternoon, along with seasonably cool temperatures. Warmer and dry conditions are expected for next week.
UPDATE
The main update to the forecast this evening was to increase POPs mainly north of I-40 from the Mohave County border, extending into the Navajo Nation. Moisture advection ahead of a weak, upper-level shortwave trough from the west-southwest, continues to increase gradually across northern Arizona. Dewpoints continue to climb as air off the surface becomes saturated with temperatures cooling. Light rain showers took place here in Bellemont earlier this evening with coverage likely to increase overnight, lasting through Saturday afternoon. PWATs sampled from this morning's sounding (0.17") have doubled (0.34") in this afternoon sounding. Mesoscale models (WRF-ARW, HRRR, HRRR)
continue to show an upward trend in precipitation chances through Saturday with greatest chances confined to areas along and north of I-40, mainly due to the stronger instability from the passing shortwave towards the north and assistance from some upslope flow.
In regards to QPF, anywhere from 0.01" to 0.25" can be expected during this time from these rain showers. Other than the POPs, the rest of the forecast remains on track.
PREV DISCUSSION /120 PM MST/
through Saturday...A long wave trough passes through the Great Basin today, keeping an upper- level jet maximum in place over Arizona today. Thus, gusty winds will continue through the afternoon, especially along and downwind of the higher terrain. Dewpoints remain fairly low across the region, with 10s deg F to near 40 deg F. However, moisture is expected to increase over the region as remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth continues to stream into the southwestern United States. As a result, showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible later this evening and especially into the overnight. Much of the activity initially will be virga, as the sub-cloud layer remains fairly dry.
As the column begins to saturate though, the chances for precipitation reaching the surface increase, mainly early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. With the area of moisture relatively small, the greatest chances will largely reside north of a Prescott-Window Rock line. Rainfall amounts should remain fairly light, with most CAM guidance showing a couple hundredths to a tenth at most. Some added orographic forcing may help produce some steadier rainfall around the Kaibab Plateau, however amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch.
Sunday through Thursday...Behind the trough, drier more westerly flow sets in over the region as a high pressure begins to amplify over the central United States. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions will dominate the start of next week as a result.
Lighter winds are also expected, with daily south/southwesterly breezes gusting to around 15-25 mph each afternoon.
AVIATION
For the 06Z TAF Package...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible in scattered -SHRA/virga, mainly north of a KPRC-KRQE line.
Light winds generally less the 10 knots overnight, increasing to around 10 knots gusting to 15-20 knots after 18Z. Showers ending and winds becoming light and variable Saturday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Tonight through Sunday...Scattered showers will be possible mainly over northern Arizona through Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions with below normal temperatures are expected. Southwest winds 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph each afternoon.
Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek. Predominately southwest winds with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 830 PM MST Fri Sep 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast over northern Arizona for tonight through Saturday afternoon, along with seasonably cool temperatures. Warmer and dry conditions are expected for next week.
UPDATE
The main update to the forecast this evening was to increase POPs mainly north of I-40 from the Mohave County border, extending into the Navajo Nation. Moisture advection ahead of a weak, upper-level shortwave trough from the west-southwest, continues to increase gradually across northern Arizona. Dewpoints continue to climb as air off the surface becomes saturated with temperatures cooling. Light rain showers took place here in Bellemont earlier this evening with coverage likely to increase overnight, lasting through Saturday afternoon. PWATs sampled from this morning's sounding (0.17") have doubled (0.34") in this afternoon sounding. Mesoscale models (WRF-ARW, HRRR, HRRR)
continue to show an upward trend in precipitation chances through Saturday with greatest chances confined to areas along and north of I-40, mainly due to the stronger instability from the passing shortwave towards the north and assistance from some upslope flow.
In regards to QPF, anywhere from 0.01" to 0.25" can be expected during this time from these rain showers. Other than the POPs, the rest of the forecast remains on track.
PREV DISCUSSION /120 PM MST/
through Saturday...A long wave trough passes through the Great Basin today, keeping an upper- level jet maximum in place over Arizona today. Thus, gusty winds will continue through the afternoon, especially along and downwind of the higher terrain. Dewpoints remain fairly low across the region, with 10s deg F to near 40 deg F. However, moisture is expected to increase over the region as remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth continues to stream into the southwestern United States. As a result, showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible later this evening and especially into the overnight. Much of the activity initially will be virga, as the sub-cloud layer remains fairly dry.
As the column begins to saturate though, the chances for precipitation reaching the surface increase, mainly early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. With the area of moisture relatively small, the greatest chances will largely reside north of a Prescott-Window Rock line. Rainfall amounts should remain fairly light, with most CAM guidance showing a couple hundredths to a tenth at most. Some added orographic forcing may help produce some steadier rainfall around the Kaibab Plateau, however amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch.
Sunday through Thursday...Behind the trough, drier more westerly flow sets in over the region as a high pressure begins to amplify over the central United States. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions will dominate the start of next week as a result.
Lighter winds are also expected, with daily south/southwesterly breezes gusting to around 15-25 mph each afternoon.
AVIATION
For the 06Z TAF Package...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible in scattered -SHRA/virga, mainly north of a KPRC-KRQE line.
Light winds generally less the 10 knots overnight, increasing to around 10 knots gusting to 15-20 knots after 18Z. Showers ending and winds becoming light and variable Saturday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Tonight through Sunday...Scattered showers will be possible mainly over northern Arizona through Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions with below normal temperatures are expected. Southwest winds 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph each afternoon.
Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek. Predominately southwest winds with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Flagstaff, AZ,
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