Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 10:16 PM   Moonset 6:53 AM

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261548 AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 848 AM MST Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Periods of showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and continue into Saturday. Some areas of snow are also possible at times over the higher terrain. Warmer and drier weather returns to kick off next week.

UPDATE
Weather remains mostly quiet across northern Arizona this morning. Hi-res guidance still indicates showers beginning later this afternoon (roughly around 2 PM MST), with greater coverage later this evening. It will be a mixed bag in terms of precipitation type. We'll see areas of rain, snow and thunder from later today through Saturday. Accumulating snowfall will be possible down to 6500', with greatest accumulation likely above 8000'. Although the overall impacts will be minimal, slick roadways will be likely later this evening into tomorrow morning.
Everything remains on track from the previous forecast package, so no updates were made.

PREV DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/
through this morning...With clearing skies and remnant moisture from yesterday's rain, some patchy fog and low clouds have developed over the higher terrain this morning. The fog should remain through the overnight, before burning off shortly after daybreak.

This afternoon through Saturday...The next wave of precipitation looks to develop late this afternoon and evening as a secondary trough moves into Arizona. With better upper-level dynamics and deeper moisture, more widespread activity is expected this time around. Latest hi-res guidance shows an initial wave of steadier moving through this evening into the overnight with the front, and then scattered showers thereafter into Saturday.

Much colder temperatures aloft are also expected with the system, initially starting out around -2C to +2C at 700 mb, then falling behind the front to around -4C by Saturday morning. As a result, snow levels should be above 7500-8000 feet initially, but then fall to near 6500 feet overnight. Marginal surface temperatures may keep accumulations light, but any heavier precipitation will be able to overcome leading to some quick, but short-lived, accumulations above 6500 feet. Even as snow levels rise some during the afternoon on Saturday, the potential for accumulating snow/graupel remains a possibility.

Overall precipitation through Saturday night looks to be decent, with upwards of a half-inch to locally an inch of liquid over the higher terrain. However, through the lower elevations and more rain shadowed areas, amounts drop off to under a few hundredths and possibly up to a quarter of an inch. For the most part, much of this precipitation will be liquid, with any meaningful snow accumulations limited to elevations above 8000 feet. Any snow accumulations down to 6500 feet should largely be around an inch or two at best.

Additionally, steepening lapse rates with the colder air mass aloft will lead to some weak instability (around 200-600 J/Kg). Thus, a few more vigorous showers and liekly some thunderstorms will be possible, especially this evening and Saturday afternoon with added insatiability from daytime heating.

Outside of the precipitation, gusty southwest winds are also expected, mainly areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A Wind Advisory remains for these areas, where winds in excess of 40-45 mph are possible.

Sunday through Thursday...In the wake of the trough, heights begin to rise as high pressure tries to gradually builds back into Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions return as a result, with afternoon high temperatures rising to around 10 deg F above normal by the middle of next week. Lighter, more typical afternoon breezes are also expected.

AVIATION
Friday 26/12Z through Saturday 27/12Z...Winds will increase after sunrise becoming southwest at 15-25 kt locally gusting to 40 kts. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will first develop from KFLG north and west during the afternoon then spread eastward to the New Mexico border overnight. Widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions developing. Thunderstorm threat mainly ends by 06Z. The snow level could dip as low as 6500 feet above MSL

OUTLOOK
Saturday 27/12Z through Monday 29/12Z
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday. Expect widespread MVFR conditions along with local IFR conditions. The thunderstorm threat will be highest during the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty out of the west at 10 to 20 kts gusting to 30 kts. Improving conditions move in Saturday night and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Today and Saturday...Look for a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms starting this afternoon from Flagstaff north and west then spreading across much of northern Arizona overnight into Saturday. Some mountain snow is forecast above 6500 feet. Expect southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting up to 40 mph on Friday with slightly lighter west winds on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warmer. West to southwest breezes at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009- 012>017-039-040.

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