Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ

DISCUSSION
Strong ridging remains the main story, keeping hot temperatures around through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with the hottest temperatures expected in the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon. The Extreme Heat Warning will continue through Friday for the Grand Canyon with temperatures at Phantom Ranch of 110-113 degrees. Tuesday continues to look like it will be slightly less hot but temperatures will still be in the 105- 110 degree range. Temperatures will rise again on Wednesday and then peak on Thursday across the region before we start to see them gradually fall as we head into the weekend. If planning outdoor activities, be sure to stay hydrated, wear light colors and plenty of sunscreen, and try to avoid being outside during the hottest parts of the day.

A weak shortwave will cross the region Tuesday but with no moisture available we will remain hot and dry. The pressure gradient tightens up as the wave pushes towards he east and that will bring stronger winds to the region through Tuesday. Southwest to west winds around 15 to 25 mph are expected with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, and some locally higher gusts of 40 mph possible. The strongest gusts will be across eastern Arizona on Tuesday, especially across the Little Colorado River Valley. With the very dry conditions, hot temperatures, gusty winds, and low RH values (less than 10%), critical fire weather concerns are expected across eastern Arizona. Near- critical fire weather conditions are expected elsewhere on Tuesday. Any spark could start a fire and the potential for rapid spread is a big concern.

Once the wave passes through the region, we see that the ridge reestablishes itself and persists through the rest of the week. This will keep it hot and dry through Friday. In advance of an approaching trough, the gradient will tighten and it will again become windy on Thursday and Friday, with wind gusts around 25-35 mph both days.
Near-critical fire weather concerns return for Thursday and Friday across much of the region.

As we head into the weekend, a trough starts to dig down through the Great Basin. There are varying solutions on just how far south the trough will dig, but it looks likely that this will bring in some cooler air and give us slightly less hot daytime temperatures.
Additionally, the gradient will remain tight and winds will increase with gusts around 25-35 mph on Saturday and around 20-30 mph on Sunday. Near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over the weekend.

AVIATION
Monday 16/18Z through Tuesday 17/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. SW winds 10-15 kts will continue downwind of terrain features overnight, light and VRB elsewhere. Winds pick up again after 16Z, becoming SW 10-20 kts gusts to 30 kts through 18Z.

OUTLOOK
Tuesday 17/18Z through Thursday 19/18Z
VFR conditions.
Afternoon winds increase to SW 15-25 with gusts to 35 kts on Tuesday, then VRB at 10 kts or less on Wednesday. Winds are light and VRB or terrain driven during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER
Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and very dry, with regions of critical fire weather concerns on Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of northeast AZ for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds are west 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph on Tuesday, with minimum RH 5-10%. Conditions stay dry on Wednesday and winds becoming much lighter.

Thursday through Saturday...Continued hot and dry conditions. Winds are south-southwest 10-20 mph on Thursday, becoming 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph on Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH will be 5-15% each afternoon. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions possible Friday and Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ111-113-114-140.