Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avenal, CA

DISCUSSION
A ridge of high pressure now sits over California as the region goes into its warming trend in temperatures, sunny skies and increasing chances of morning fog. Therefore, will see little change in the overall pattern through at least the middle of this week. Will still expect the warming trend to peak on Monday as highs across the San Joaquin Valley reach the 80 degree mark. While much of the area will reach around the 80 degree mark, areas south of Fresno still showing the best Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday.
Cooling begin on Tuesday with highs across the San Joaquin Valley struggling to reach 65 degrees by Friday.

Ensemble moisture analysis continues to show a change to wet weather starting on Wednesday(Nov 12th) afternoon with the bulk of the storm expected by Thursday Morning. Probability of Precipitation (PoP) of receiving a tenth of an inch in 6 hours starts out below 10 percent on Wednesday and increases to around 60 percent by Thursday morning. PoP reaches 80 to almost 90 percent Thursday afternoon with PoP of exceeding a half inch of water in the 40 to 60 percent range during the same time frame of Thursday. While ensemble moisture analysis is showing some uncertainty of the magnitude and strike zone of a weak to moderate Atmospheric River, models do suggest that Central California will receive a significant portion of that moisture.
Snow levels show less ensemble model uncertainty as confidence is high that snow levels will start above 8000 feet at the start of the storm and drop to around 6000 feet by early Friday Morning. While snow levels and overall temperatures see a marked decrease, precipitation from the Atmospheric River will see a decreasing trend as amounts taper-off. Ensemble show linger showers extending into Saturday with conditions drying out on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure returns to the area.

AVIATION
Areas of MVFR to IFR conditions will exist this morning until 18Z. A few patches of LIFR conditions will also exist between 11Z and 18Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Sunday November 9, 2025, No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area). Burning Discouraged in Merced County, and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305-306-311-312.