Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Temperatures follow a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled starting mid-week.

DISCUSSION
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures follow a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled starting mid-week.

High pressure slides offshore tomorrow which will bring back southerly sfc flow. The high will then slowly slide further east through the end of the week. Meanwhile aloft, a ridge builds in over the East Coast. This will lead to progressively warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Tomorrow will largely be similar to today, but lack of onshore flow will allow temps at the coast to warm into the upper 70s/around 80. Highs will be around 90 Wednesday, then mid to potentially upper 90s Thursday. Friday could perhaps be the hottest day of the period pending timing of convection. NBM seems to be running a bit hot compared to outputs from the global ensembles/deterministic models (100-105 compared to 95-98). The projected thicknesses suggest the latter to be more likely. Clouds and convection may inhibit temps as well, especially if there's a morning round of showers as 12z guidance suggests. It is worth nothing that the record temp for Richmond on Friday is 100F and the modeled ridge position plus potential precip does not seem conducive to breaking records.
Nevertheless, it will still be a hot day with highs likely in the upper 90s and heat indices around 100- 103F. Temperatures level out slightly over the weekend in the low 90s.

There will also be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend as the pattern turns more unsettled. These will likely be diurnal, peaking in coverage in the late afternoon/early evening each day.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

1025mb high pressure was centered near the NJ coast as of 00z.
VFR with a decaying band of stratocumulus inland along with some bands of cirrus, and an E/ENE wind of 8-12kt. VFR conditions prevail tonight into Tuesday as high pressure gradually builds S along the coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with increasing cirrus (especially inland)
Tuesday. The wind will diminish later this evening and become calm to very light out of the SE tonight into early Tuesday morning. The wind will generally be ESE/SE 5-10kt along the coast Tuesday and S 5-10kt inland.

Outlook...High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday night through Thursday with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms. A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW Friday and Saturday with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms continuing.

MARINE
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters through this evening or overnight.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

Marginal SCA conditions (ENE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt and waves 3-4 ft Ches Bay) will continue through this evening for the tidal rivers of eastern VA, the Ches Bay and Currituck Sound and thus SCAs remain in effect until 7 pm for these areas. Additional SCAs will remain in effect for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague until 10 pm, for the coastal waters south to the NC border until 1 AM Tuesday, and south to Currituck Light thru 6 AM Tuesday. This is mainly for seas of 4-5 ft (potentially up to 6 ft off the northern OBX). Winds become E 10-15 kt this evening, becoming light (5-10 kt) overnight as high pressure builds into the area.

High pressure moves offshore Tue evening into Tue night. Winds become SE 15-20 kt late Tue afternoon before becoming S Tue night behind the high. S winds increase to 15-25 kt across the coastal waters late Wed into Wed night before diminishing late Wed night into Thu. Uncertainty remains moderate regarding whether or not SCA criteria will be reached across the Ches Bay. However, confidence is increasing in SCA conditions across the coastal waters with this surge due to a combination of elevated winds and seas building to 4- 6 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection)
are likely from Thu into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.