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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

February 17, 2025 3:41 PM EST (20:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 5:49 PM
Moonrise 10:48 PM   Moonset 9:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 321 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2025

Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Tue - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.

Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.

Wed - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of rain and snow in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Wed night - N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.

Thu - NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough. A chance of snow in the morning.

Thu night - NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough.

Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
AMZ200 318 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2025

Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Cold high pressure will build in through early this week. The next system will affect the waters midweek followed by more cold high pressure through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
   
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
  
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Mon -- 04:17 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:36 PM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
        
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
2.4
1
am
1.7
2
am
1
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.7
7
am
1.3
8
am
2
9
am
2.6
10
am
2.8
11
am
2.7
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
1.7
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.1
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
2
9
pm
2.6
10
pm
3
11
pm
3

Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
  
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Duck Pier
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Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
        
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
2.6
1
am
2
2
am
1.2
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.3
5
am
0.4
6
am
0.7
7
am
1.3
8
am
2
9
am
2.6
10
am
2.9
11
am
2.7
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
1.8
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
2.6
10
pm
3.1
11
pm
3.1

Area Discussion for Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 171632 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1132 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

SYNOPSIS
High pressure returns early this week with dry conditions.
The next system will likely bring wintry weather to the lower Mid- Atlantic region Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Monday and Tuesday with sunny to mostly sunny skies with strong high pressure in Canada extending to the SE.

Latest analysis continues to show cold 1038+mb high pressure over the Canadian Prairies, ridging E-SE across the northern plains and upper midwest. Meanwhile, strong ~970mb low pressure continues to slide across Atlantic Canada.

Rest of today/tonight...
Minimal changes made for the afternoon. Tight pressure gradient in between Arctic high over central Canada and Low pressure over northern Maine will allow cold air advection to continue on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to 15-20 mph. Wind gusts gradually drop off this afternoon and evening as the gradient slowly relaxes.
Highs today still on track to reach the low-mid 40s, coolest of the piedmont NW of KRIC and the Lower Eastern Shore.

Mainly clear to start tonight, with some increasing high clouds late. Overnight lows will reach down to the mid 20s for the piedmont and Eastern Shore with most of the area in the upper 20s.

Tuesday...
High pressure slowly builds to the NW on Tuesday with another dry day under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s on the Eastern Shore, the upper 40s in the Northern Neck and piedmont, the mid 40s for the rest of the VA area, to the upper 40s for NE NC. The Eastern Shore will stay cooler than the rest of the CWA with ongoing CAA on gusty NW winds. Overnight lows on Tuesday will fall into the lower 20s and upper 20s to lower 30s in SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Potential continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Cold weather remains persistent through the middle of the week as an Arctic high moves out of Canada and into the north-central Plains.
High pressure will build south and east as low pressure develops across the Gulf Coast and lifts northeast off the Atlantic coast.

The latest 00z/17 operational models and their respective ensembles (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continue to show the potential for a significant winter storm across the majority of the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. A southern stream shortwave is expected to move across the southern United States, with low pressure starting to develop along the southeastern coast and then lifting north- northeast. Precip spreads in from west to east late Wednesday morning with most of the QPF/winter wx expected to come from 18z Wednesday through about sunrise on Thursday with rapid drying aloft expected from SW to NE on Thursday, bringing accumulating snowfall to an end by early Thursday afternoon. The 00z operational models have all trended towards a weaker and more suppressed low vs the 12z guidance. QPF has accordingly come down a bit as well. Consensus of the 00z models has shifted the axis of heavier snowfall to the south and east. The weaker/suppressed low and lower QPF results in a storm total snowfall forecast of 4-8" across the local area with the highest totals focused east of I-95 into the Hampton Roads metro and NE into the Eastern Shore. With the general SE trend have cut back on the ice accumulations with this forecast but the 00z NAM still has a decent corridor of mixed precip across the south so have maintained some ice accumulation in these areas but kept totals aob 0.15". This portion of the forecast remains in flux with some significant shifts in sensible weather across the region still possible. This system still looks like a Winter Storm Warning level event across much of the local area, however, given the significant changes with this model cycle will hold off on issuing any watches at this time.

High pressure builds into the region as precip exits offshore on Thursday. Lows Thursday night will be cold but specific values will depend heavily on where the heaviest snow falls.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 345 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures increase a bit on Friday with mostly sunny skies but again specifics will depend on where and how much snow falls across the area. For now, will show temps in the upper 30s W and NW with mid 30s for the remainder of the area. Cold Friday night with lows in the teens to low 20s. Warmer Saturday and Sunday as high pressure moves offshore. Highs Saturday around 40 degrees with lows overnight in the low 20s. Highs Sunday rebound into the low/mid 40 with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1130 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/17 TAF period. High pressure builds into the area from central Canada and the upper midwest, as low pressure moves off into Atlantic Canada. W-NW winds continue to be gusty/breezy to ~15kt inland, and up to 20-25 kt at SBY, ORF, and PHF. Gusts slowly drop out from mid to late afternoon into tonight, as the pressure gradient relaxes.
A mainly clear sky is forecast, with SCT high clouds building in overnight toward sunrise Tuesday.

Outlook: High pressure will continue building in Tuesday and Tuesday night, maintaining dry/VFR conditions. Developing low pressure system is likely to bring wintry precip in forms of snow and/or wintry mix Wednesday into Thursday with degraded flight conditions likely Wednesday afternoon and night into early Thursday. Dry and VFR conditions return Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
As of 645 AM EST Monday...

Key messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters through most of this morning, and for the northern bay/ocean through 1 PM.

- Winds gradually decrease today and tonight, and should fall below SCA criteria by midnight.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected late tonight-Tuesday evening

- Another more wintry system will bring solid SCA to gale conditions to the waters from Wednesday through Thursday night.

Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs (in effect through 7 PM) for the rivers/sound. The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion as of 345 AM EST...

A strong cold front is now well south of the waters early this morning. NW winds are averaging 20-30 kt with 35-40 kt gusts at this hour...with 5-8 ft seas/3-5 ft waves. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the rivers until 7 AM, southern bay/coastal waters until 10 AM, and northern bay/coastal waters until 1 PM.

Conditions will gradually improve today (especially by late in the day). While the lower bay and southern coastal waters will likely drop below gale criteria by late morning, conditions could linger into the afternoon across northern waters where the pressure gradient will be tighter (and that's why the warning goes until 1 PM here). SCAs will eventually be needed to replace the Gale Warnings...and gusts should fall below SCA criteria by midnight tonight. Sub-advisory conditions are then anticipated from late tonight through most of Tuesday night as high pressure builds over the area. Attention then turns to a deepening surface low that is progged to track NNE from the Southeast CONUS coast to off the Mid- Atlantic coast from Wednesday-Thursday. NE winds (and waves/seas)
will likely rise above SCA criteria across the southern waters by mid-late Wed AM...with solid SCA conditions (NE winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt) likely by Wed evening. Winds turn to the N then NW from Wed night-Thu as the strengthening low pulls away from the area. Wind speeds will continue to increase during this time as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the low. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the track/strength of the low...confidence in a period of 35-40 kt gusts continues to increase from Thu through the first part of Thu night. Seas build to 5-8 ft by Thu, with 4-5 ft waves on the bay. Winds gradually decrease on Friday, but likely remain above SCA criteria through at least Fri evening.

HYDROLOGY
As of 1130 AM EST Monday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the James River at Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and the Richmond Locks, and also for the Appomattox River at Farmville, Mattoax, and Matoaca. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and the Nottoway River near Rawlings/Stony Creek/Sebrell. These points will see minor to moderate flooding, which will likely continue for the next few days. See water.noaa.gov/wfo/akq for the latest site-specific information.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi53 min 46°F30.07
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi45 min 45°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi41 min 45°F 46°F3 ft
44086 17 mi45 min 46°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi53 min 51°F30.10
44095 31 mi45 min 47°F4 ft
41082 33 mi161 minNW 12 41°F 51°F29.88
44079 47 mi161 minNW 14 41°F 51°F30.07


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 6 sm11 minW 11G1610 smClear45°F21°F39%30.08
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 12 sm11 minWNW 0710 smClear45°F21°F39%30.10

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us  
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Wakefield, VA,





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