Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC
December 5, 2023 10:22 AM EST (15:22 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 12:49PM
AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 648 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming around 10 kt this afternoon. Waves light chop.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming around 10 kt this afternoon. Waves light chop.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
AMZ200 919 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure developing off the north carolina coast will drag a cold front offshore late tonight. Breezy north winds Wednesday will continue through Wednesday night. High pressure will bring improving conditions Thursday through Friday night. Winds and seas should increase again this weekend ahead of the next front.
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure developing off the north carolina coast will drag a cold front offshore late tonight. Breezy north winds Wednesday will continue through Wednesday night. High pressure will bring improving conditions Thursday through Friday night. Winds and seas should increase again this weekend ahead of the next front.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 051147 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 647 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure rebuilds across the area from the west through this afternoon. A stronger upper trough will swing into and across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...
Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure building east from the west-central gulf coast and the mid-south early this morning. To the south, a weak coastal low skirting the SE NC coast along a coastal trough will continue to lift along the coastal Carolinas through this afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough currently over the mid-Mississippi River valley will continue to dive south across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys today.
Locally, clouds have cleared out over the local area. The clear sky and light winds have allowed temperatures to plummet through the 30s away from the immediate coast, with some upper 20s in typically cooler, more rural locations across the VA piedmont into south central VA.
Dry wx will prevail today with high pressure building in from the west. After a clear/sunny start, mid to high clouds will start to push into the area this afternoon and this evening.
Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s, or around to just a degree or two below typical highs for early December.
Clouds will continue to gradually increase this evening ahead of the clipper system approaching from the northwest. Since the system is cutoff from gulf moisture, majority of the QPF will be to our W-NW. However, there will be enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some spotty light rain/sprinkles tonight, potentially as early as this evening NW of RIC, to just after 00z-03z/7-10pm for the I-95 corridor. Measuring pcpn is unlikely before 00z, and will maintain silent PoP through that time. The approaching upper trough will compel sfc low pressure to deepen off the NC coast late this evening and overnight, with the sfc low pushing quickly offshore late tonight through Wed aftn.
Best chances for light precipitation arrives by midnight-4 AM Tue night/early Wed AM, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) during the remainder of the morning.
Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed late morning through late aftn as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2 kft AGL appear to be too warm for much in the way of wintry precipitation. That said, model soundings do argue for potential for a brief period of sleet or graupel over the NW tier of counties as the trough axis pivots across the area Wed morning, and wouldn't be surprised to receive a report or two of some PL/graupel early Wed morning. Operational impacts would be minimal at most, with very light/spotty pcpn expected and with lows remaining in the lower to middle 30s, but it is certainly worth monitoring over the next couple of model cycles. Precipitation tapers off from late morning through early afternoon, but even as moisture exits Wednesday, it will remain cool and cloudy for much of the day.
Clouds and increasingly gusty NW wind will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during Wed aftn and early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10".
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...
Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 20s inland/Piedmont, with lower to mid 30s near the immediate coast. Cool, mostly sunny, and dry on Thursday with light winds as high pressure settles over the area. Forecast highs are in the mid 40s-50F.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...
The surface high slides off the Mid Atlantic/SE Coast early Friday, before moving well out to sea through the weekend.
Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains late Thursday and Friday. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front late Friday into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. It will remain dry locally through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, widespread precipitation from the west appears increasingly likely to push across our area, as the deepening and increasingly dynamic low pressure system lifts across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will drag its attendant surface cold front through the area on Sunday or Sunday night.
At this time, there are significant timing differences remain between the global models with respect to exact track/timing of the system. For now, will go with likely (60-70%) PoPs for showers area-wide developing across the area from Sunday through Sun evening. As we get closer, specifics will become more clear. In addition to the showers, breezy south winds in advance of the cold front will make for increasingly mild conditions Friday and especially over the upcoming weekend. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Highs in the mid-upper 50s Fri, and in the lower to mid 60s Sat, and lower- upper 60s on Sun.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. A mainly clear sky will prevail through midday, before mid-level clouds begin to increase from NW to SE during the afternoon and this evening, ahead of a clipper system approaching from the Ohio Valley. CIGs remain VFR throughout the period, but will gradually lower late this afternoon and this evening, with MVFR CIGs possible after 06-08z/1-3 am late Tue night/early Wed.
Winds become N and eventually NE this afternoon aob 7 kt as high pressure lingers overhead.
Outlook: A potent upper trough approaching from the west will bring deteriorating flying conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR CIGs are likely all terminals, with some localized IFR CIGs possible along the SE VA/NE NC coast, before VFR conditions return to area terminals late Wed aftn and Wed night. Additionally, scattered light rain showers will be possible around and after midnight Tue evening, with periodic light showers possible into early Wed afternoon. Clearing on gusty W-NW winds (gusts to 15-25 kt, highest ORF/ECG) should ensue from NW to SE Wed aftn, returning dry conditions to the region from Wed aftn through the first half of the weekend.
MARINE
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...
A brief uptick in northerly winds are expected this morning, bringing gusts of 15-25 kt. Winds quickly diminish later this morning as weak area high pressure moves over the region.
A sfc low pressure is forecasted to develop just east of Outer Banks late tonight. The low pressure will likely strengthen as it tracks ENE over the Atlantic and as high pressure builds in from the west. This will result in winds becoming N-NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning at ~10 kt. Winds become NNW- NW at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late Wednesday into Thursday morning as pressure gradient tightens over the area between the low pressure off the coast and the high pressure to the west. Small craft advisories are likely during this period, with a short period of gale- force gusts possible, but not likely, over the coastal waters S of the NC/VA border.
The center of high pressure moves to the south over the area, over SC and GA, and winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to 10-20 kt Thursday night.
Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday.
Waves in the Bay are expected to increase to 2-3 ft tonight with the surge in NNW winds, before diminishing to ~1 ft later Tues. Seas are expected to remain 2-3 ft through early Wed. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 647 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure rebuilds across the area from the west through this afternoon. A stronger upper trough will swing into and across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...
Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure building east from the west-central gulf coast and the mid-south early this morning. To the south, a weak coastal low skirting the SE NC coast along a coastal trough will continue to lift along the coastal Carolinas through this afternoon. Aloft, a strong upper level trough currently over the mid-Mississippi River valley will continue to dive south across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys today.
Locally, clouds have cleared out over the local area. The clear sky and light winds have allowed temperatures to plummet through the 30s away from the immediate coast, with some upper 20s in typically cooler, more rural locations across the VA piedmont into south central VA.
Dry wx will prevail today with high pressure building in from the west. After a clear/sunny start, mid to high clouds will start to push into the area this afternoon and this evening.
Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s, or around to just a degree or two below typical highs for early December.
Clouds will continue to gradually increase this evening ahead of the clipper system approaching from the northwest. Since the system is cutoff from gulf moisture, majority of the QPF will be to our W-NW. However, there will be enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some spotty light rain/sprinkles tonight, potentially as early as this evening NW of RIC, to just after 00z-03z/7-10pm for the I-95 corridor. Measuring pcpn is unlikely before 00z, and will maintain silent PoP through that time. The approaching upper trough will compel sfc low pressure to deepen off the NC coast late this evening and overnight, with the sfc low pushing quickly offshore late tonight through Wed aftn.
Best chances for light precipitation arrives by midnight-4 AM Tue night/early Wed AM, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) during the remainder of the morning.
Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed late morning through late aftn as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2 kft AGL appear to be too warm for much in the way of wintry precipitation. That said, model soundings do argue for potential for a brief period of sleet or graupel over the NW tier of counties as the trough axis pivots across the area Wed morning, and wouldn't be surprised to receive a report or two of some PL/graupel early Wed morning. Operational impacts would be minimal at most, with very light/spotty pcpn expected and with lows remaining in the lower to middle 30s, but it is certainly worth monitoring over the next couple of model cycles. Precipitation tapers off from late morning through early afternoon, but even as moisture exits Wednesday, it will remain cool and cloudy for much of the day.
Clouds and increasingly gusty NW wind will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during Wed aftn and early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10".
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...
Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 20s inland/Piedmont, with lower to mid 30s near the immediate coast. Cool, mostly sunny, and dry on Thursday with light winds as high pressure settles over the area. Forecast highs are in the mid 40s-50F.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...
The surface high slides off the Mid Atlantic/SE Coast early Friday, before moving well out to sea through the weekend.
Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains late Thursday and Friday. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front late Friday into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. It will remain dry locally through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, widespread precipitation from the west appears increasingly likely to push across our area, as the deepening and increasingly dynamic low pressure system lifts across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will drag its attendant surface cold front through the area on Sunday or Sunday night.
At this time, there are significant timing differences remain between the global models with respect to exact track/timing of the system. For now, will go with likely (60-70%) PoPs for showers area-wide developing across the area from Sunday through Sun evening. As we get closer, specifics will become more clear. In addition to the showers, breezy south winds in advance of the cold front will make for increasingly mild conditions Friday and especially over the upcoming weekend. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Highs in the mid-upper 50s Fri, and in the lower to mid 60s Sat, and lower- upper 60s on Sun.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. A mainly clear sky will prevail through midday, before mid-level clouds begin to increase from NW to SE during the afternoon and this evening, ahead of a clipper system approaching from the Ohio Valley. CIGs remain VFR throughout the period, but will gradually lower late this afternoon and this evening, with MVFR CIGs possible after 06-08z/1-3 am late Tue night/early Wed.
Winds become N and eventually NE this afternoon aob 7 kt as high pressure lingers overhead.
Outlook: A potent upper trough approaching from the west will bring deteriorating flying conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR CIGs are likely all terminals, with some localized IFR CIGs possible along the SE VA/NE NC coast, before VFR conditions return to area terminals late Wed aftn and Wed night. Additionally, scattered light rain showers will be possible around and after midnight Tue evening, with periodic light showers possible into early Wed afternoon. Clearing on gusty W-NW winds (gusts to 15-25 kt, highest ORF/ECG) should ensue from NW to SE Wed aftn, returning dry conditions to the region from Wed aftn through the first half of the weekend.
MARINE
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...
A brief uptick in northerly winds are expected this morning, bringing gusts of 15-25 kt. Winds quickly diminish later this morning as weak area high pressure moves over the region.
A sfc low pressure is forecasted to develop just east of Outer Banks late tonight. The low pressure will likely strengthen as it tracks ENE over the Atlantic and as high pressure builds in from the west. This will result in winds becoming N-NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning at ~10 kt. Winds become NNW- NW at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late Wednesday into Thursday morning as pressure gradient tightens over the area between the low pressure off the coast and the high pressure to the west. Small craft advisories are likely during this period, with a short period of gale- force gusts possible, but not likely, over the coastal waters S of the NC/VA border.
The center of high pressure moves to the south over the area, over SC and GA, and winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to 10-20 kt Thursday night.
Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday.
Waves in the Bay are expected to increase to 2-3 ft tonight with the surge in NNW winds, before diminishing to ~1 ft later Tues. Seas are expected to remain 2-3 ft through early Wed. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 6 mi | 142 min | NNE 13G | 58°F | 30.08 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 7 mi | 146 min | 57°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 13 mi | 142 min | 53°F | 56°F | 3 ft | |||
| 44086 | 17 mi | 146 min | 58°F | 2 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 23 mi | 142 min | NE 9.9G | 57°F | 30.11 | |||
| 44095 | 31 mi | 116 min | 56°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 6 sm | 12 min | no data | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 39°F | 58% | 30.08 | |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 12 sm | 17 min | NE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 39°F | 58% | 30.09 |
Wind History from FFA
(wind in knots)Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST 0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST 2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST 0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST 2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:02 AM EST 2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:59 PM EST 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:02 AM EST 2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:59 PM EST 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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