Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1030 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry and cool today as high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

Morning wx analysis indicates the cold front that brought locally severe storms last evening (mainly from hail), has pushed off the coast. Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s across the area.
The sky is variably cloudy with cumulus clouds building in, and will average out partly to mostly sunny today across the south, and partly to mostly cloudy NE. A stray late aftn shower is possible across the Maryland eastern shore. Highs today will be cooler than average, ranging from around 70F across the north, with mid 70s across the south. Breezy W-NW winds will prevail this aftn with good mixing due to the rather cool air aloft and dry low levels.

Becoming mostly clear tonight, with diminishing winds. Rather cool for late May, with most areas away from the coast dropping off to the mid 40s to around 50F. At the coast, lows will range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather will continue through early Sunday, with increasing clouds and perhaps a few showers late Sunday.

The core of the upper low will shift farther off to the NE Saturday, as weak sfc high pressure settles in from the west.
Expect a mostly sunny and pleasant start to the holiday weekend with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 70s south/lower 70s north. Overnight lows will once again drop into the upper 40s inland, with 50s closer to the coast Sat night. A broad W-NW will flow aloft is expected Sunday, as another shortwave drops SE from Ontario into the northern mid-Atlantic region heading into Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure slides off the coast, with low pressure moving east from the southern plains into the deep south. Overrunning moisture, mainly in the form of increasing clouds, is expected later Sunday. A few light showers are possible by late aftn (mainly south), but PoPs are still fairly minimal through sunset. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems approach the region.

Models continue to show the northern stream suppressing the moisture to the south rather quickly Sunday night, with drier air pushing in from the N on Memorial Day. Still looking at high chc PoPs (~50%), across southern VA and NE NC Sunday night into early Monday, with only ~20% chances across the north. No severe wx is expected, though a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Sunday night over the far south. Not as cool with lows ranging through the 50s. While the early part of Monday may feature cloudy skies and scattered rain showers (especially south), the latest trends are for drier air to move in from the north by later morning/aftn. It does appear that after a brief dry period Monday aftn/night, a more prolonged unsettled stretch is likely for the rest of the work week as several weather systems pass through the area bringing rain chances.
Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May, with highs potentially only in the 60s for much of the area Tuesday, then trending to near normal by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

Dry and VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 18z/23 TAF period will persist through tonight and for much of the upcoming holiday weekend. WNW wind of 10-15kt this aftn w/gusts to 20-25 kt. Afternoon SC/CU clear out, leaving mainly SKC tonight and early Saturday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions continue Saturday. A better chance of showers and degraded flight conditions return later Sunday/Sunday night into early Monday.

MARINE
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories have ended across the northern coastal waters. Additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay/lower James late this aftn/evening into early Saturday.

- Lighter winds return for the holiday weekend.

In the wake of the cold front, winds are now from the NW at 10-15kt across most of the local waters. Seas range from 3-4 ft area-wide. Later this aftn, a persistent period of marginal SCA criteria winds is likely with gusty westerly flow and for the entire bay and lower James due to ample mixing and a dry airmass. The winds is expected to become NW this evening, with enough of a push of cold advection to continue with 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt. Have raised SCAs for the Bay and lower James late this aftn into early Saturday morning to account for this.
These winds will increase bay waves to 2-3 ft.

Lower winds and seas are expected Saturday and Sunday with transient high pressure sliding over the area. Unsettled weather and degraded marine conditions potentially return early next week as low pressure tracks near the area.

A MODERATE risk of rip currents is forecast at all beaches today.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Tidal anomalies are still running high early this morning, but are finally starting to diminish. A few places in the mid to upper Bay will likely experience nuisance flooding in vulnerable locations through the next high tide cycle and have added a Coastal Flood statement to cover this.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ638.