Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ballou, OK

SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A surface boundary is advancing east through the area, currently it stretches from northwest AR back into south-central OK. Earlier, showers and storms had formed in the unstable air ahead of this boundary but have since moved east.

CAMs are in good agreement that the next round of storms will form right as they are exiting southeast OK this afternoon. This may occur if sufficient surface heating breaks the capping inversion. Forecast profiles support all severe hazards, but large hail in particular. With that said, all areas east of the boundary should remain alert for potential severe weather. By early evening, any storms should be south or east of the area. Due to the cooler and drier air behind the boundary, temperatures will drop into the 50s north of I-40 tonight. It will be a bit warmer south of I-40 where some moisture return will begin, with lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

During the day Saturday the boundary will drift back to the north, with deep moisture filling in near and south of I-40. Meanwhile, another weak cold front will sag south out of the north, combining with the existing boundary near I-40 for the middle part of the day.
This merged boundary will then gradually lift back north and wash out, with deep moisture filling the forecast area by late afternoon or evening. With plenty of moisture, deep instability, and good wind shear, thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) are expected. Lift will increase later in the day as an approaching upper level wave passes through. Storms will focus south of I-40 through mid afternoon before spreading north and east into the late afternoon and evening. The threat of storms will continue overnight, especially north of I-40 and towards northwest AR.
Temperatures will be warm Saturday, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Model guidance is in pretty good agreement that storm activity will light up along the remnant 850 hPa frontal boundary Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, which should be oriented NW- SE, roughly in the vicinity of northeast OK into west-central AR.
With very high PWAT near 1.5" (dewpoints into the low 70s) and strong warm advection, areas of heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms are likely.

We will remain within the warm sector Monday, with dew points again surging into the 70s. Additionally, stronger lift and shear will spread into the area as the upper level trough approaches. Forecast soundings are concerning, with most forecast metrics looking conducive for higher end severe weather potential. The expectation is that during the afternoon storms will develop along the dry line before moving east across the area. All severe hazards would be possible with any discrete storms, perhaps transitioning to more of a QLCS system with time. The SPC has already increased severe weather probabilities to slight to enhanced (15-30%) for this period, which seems well warranted given the parameter space.

A cold front will push through later Monday, bringing much drier and cooler air. This should set is up for a quieter period mid week.
Better moisture and storm chances return by late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will continue to move east northeast this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Storm chances remain this afternoon ahead of the front, and will add a brief Prob30 group for KFSM. Behind the front, mostly clear to passing high clouds are expected this evening and tonight for the CWA For Saturday morning, high level clouds are forecast to increase over the CWA along with moisture lifting into the region.
There is potential for MVFR ceilings at KMLC/KFSM toward the end of the period. Storm chances Saturday look to be just outside of this TAF period. Winds start out breezy from the west and become variable tonight into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 83 64 82 / 0 20 50 50 FSM 62 89 68 87 / 0 30 50 40 MLC 61 86 68 85 / 0 40 30 30 BVO 51 80 60 81 / 0 10 60 60 FYV 55 85 63 82 / 0 20 60 60 BYV 56 84 61 82 / 0 10 60 60 MKO 58 85 64 82 / 0 30 50 50 MIO 53 80 61 81 / 0 10 70 70 F10 59 85 66 82 / 0 30 40 40 HHW 65 86 68 83 / 10 50 30 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.