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FXUS64 KOHX 040925 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 325 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Earlier in the night temperatures took a much faster dip than previously forecasted, and plenty of places in the midstate, especially near the Tennessee River saw their lows around midnight. Since then cloud cover has increased and a warm front is approaching from the southwest...which is slowly bringing warming temperatures in our extreme western counties. The remainder of the area may see temperatures become stable and even warm a few degrees between now and sunrise. Meanwhile there are light showers moving into west Tennessee ahead of a cold front. The upper wave responsible for this system will continue east throughout the day today, bringing the best chance of rain to areas north of I-40.
Any rainfall totals will remain below a tenth of an inch. We'll be in between upper waves on Tuesday, so expect stable temperatures and a few clouds.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Tuesday night will see a quick moving clipper swing into the Ohio River Valley. Models have been gradually pulling this system west over the last few days and now it's looking like we should see some precip over at least our northeastern counties Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as this wave passes to our north.
Winds will turn out of the northwest and temperatures will fall Tuesday night into the 30s. While most of the area will likely only see light rain with this wave, there may be a mix of flurries and rain on the highest and coldest spots on the Cumberland Plateau Wednesday morning. We're not expecting any snow accumulation at this time.

Wednesday through the rest of the work week looks dry. A surface high will move from west to east across Middle TN during the day on Wednesday. Clear skies and calm winds should allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s Thursday morning.
Then we'll begin to warm in response to southerly winds behind the high pressure system. A broad upper trough digging into the central U.S. will increase southerly flow over the Southeast and push daytime highs back into the 60s as we close out the week. Of course, this also means another round of showers and some storms will be on the horizon as we head into the weekend. This is more good news though...as we still have some improving to do on drought conditions. There is a good chance of widespread showers Saturday night, then lingering light showers on Sunday. Should the moisture hang around long enough, there may be another chance for flurries to mix with the sprinkles early Monday morning.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

A weak surface ridge will continue sliding east overnight.
Meanwhile, a clipper system upstream will be sending some mid and upper level cloudiness our way. As we move toward 12Z, the system will bring some lower cloudiness and a rather narrow window of scattered shower activity. Will opt for vcsh in the tafs to cover this. IFR conditions not quite expected at this time, until aft 00Z when lower cigs prevail. Otw, on Monday afternoon, west northwesterly winds and some gusts will pick up a touch.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 55 37 56 37 / 40 0 10 10 Clarksville 52 36 55 34 / 30 0 10 10 Crossville 54 34 50 31 / 50 0 40 50 Columbia 55 36 57 35 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 54 36 51 34 / 70 10 40 50 Jamestown 53 34 49 32 / 70 10 50 60 Lawrenceburg 55 36 56 35 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 56 35 57 34 / 30 0 10 20 Waverly 52 34 55 33 / 10 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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