Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nashville-Davidson, TN

UPDATE
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The new day 2 convective outlook for Thursday pulls the slight risk area back just a little, but overall no significant changes.
The SPC continues to focus solely on a wind threat across Middle Tennessee. The tornado threat stays to our south. The 00Z HRRR suggests that peak time for severe storms in our area is going to run from mid afternoon through early evening. The forecast sounding for BNA valid for Thursday at 5 p.m. does show good instability, but more of a tall, thin CAPE that definitely would not support widespread severe storms. Low-level wind shear is minimal. Mid-level lapse rates aren't excessively steep. And the Precipitable Water suggested by the forecast sounding would be above the 90th percentile climatologically. So I'd have to say that all we can expect from tomorrow's storms would be an isolated threat of damaging winds with locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some minor flooding with the stronger cells.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The seasonally pleasant conditions we have enjoyed the past couple of days will slip away Wednesday as heat and humidity creep higher. Backing upper level flow with increasingly gusty south surface winds will bring these changes. Active wx systems will impact areas well to our north and south as we stay dry one more day. The northern system will bring a good chance for severe storms across the Mid Ms Valley and Ohio Valley while the southern system brings heavy tropical rainfall along the western Gulf Coast.

These systems will eventually put the squeeze on Middle TN Thursday into Friday as a trailing front from the northern system pushes into the tropical air mass oozing up from the south. This will bring high chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Over the past 24 hours, the forecast has changed in some significant ways. Areal average rainfall has dropped considerably with latest models showing less than half the rainfall they showed 24 hours ago. But, with less rain coverage, the door has opened for more instability and a notable risk for severe storms with gusty winds Thursday afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, we cannot let our guard down for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Although widespread totals have trended lower, the moisture laded atmosphere combined with potentially vigorous deep convection could bring very heavy localized totals, resulting in brief flash flooding. To clarify, this does not look like a widespread flood threat at this time, but we are under a WPC slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Rain and scattered storm chances will persist into Friday ahead of the cold front, likely passing early Friday afternoon. Drier air will move in for Friday night through Saturday. Another trend on the models has been a faster transition into an active pattern next week. So, rather than an entirely dry weekend, we may be dealing with a return of showers and storms by Sunday. Overall, the pattern for next week looks unsettled with a series of disturbances bringing on and off chances for showers and storms.
Otherwise, typical June warmth and humidity can be expected.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

TAFs are VFR the next 24 hrs. A surface ridge now situated to our east will pull farther away as a surface boundary approaches Middle Tennessee from the northwest. So we can expect winds to increase considerably from the S/SW during the day Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens up.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 91 76 89 69 / 0 10 80 80 Clarksville 90 75 88 67 / 0 20 70 60 Crossville 84 70 81 65 / 0 10 80 80 Columbia 90 74 87 69 / 0 10 80 70 Cookeville 86 72 83 67 / 0 10 90 80 Jamestown 86 71 83 64 / 0 10 90 80 Lawrenceburg 87 73 84 68 / 0 20 80 70 Murfreesboro 90 75 88 69 / 0 10 90 70 Waverly 89 74 87 67 / 0 10 80 70

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.