Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camden, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch has been issued along the I-64 corridor from Hampton Roads, Middle Peninsula, and Louisa/Fluvanna County for this afternoon/evening.

- Lower coverage of storms but remaining unsettled today. Mid to late afternoon and evening showers and storms are likely. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail and gusty winds the main threats.

As of 1240 PM: With the rainfall from yesterday and additional showers/storms expected this afternoon and evening, there is potential for flash flooding along the I-64 corridor from the northern piedmont, Middle Peninsula, Richmond and vicinity, Hampton Roads Peninsula and through the Tidewaters. Recent CAMs show showers and storms moving in a more easterly flow coming from North Carolina and encountering a boundary close to the bay, which may have storms taking on a more northeastern motion. Recent HRRR model guidance has a likely probability of these areas seeing up to 3" of rainfall within 3 hours, with locally higher amounts possible. Taking into account of yesterday's rainfall, Flash Flood Guidance is relatively low (1.25- 2" an hour) for these areas. All this together, thinking the conditions are right to see flooding in these areas. In addition, WPC has upgraded the Excessive Rainfall Outlook over our area to now include a slight risk.

Latest weather analysis shows weakening upper level low pressure in the process of opening up as it lingers over the Ohio Valley into the upper TN Valley region. The attendant sfc low was analyzed over IN/W OH. Secondary low pressure is lingering over central VA into the northern neck, with sfc warm front that has moved through most of the area at this time. A few showers and storms are moving northwards from the far SW counties in the FA.
There was some lightning from these storms, but they have weakened to showers more recently.

For today, the Ohio Valley low lifts slowly to the ENE as it weakens through this evening. One last strong shortwave rotating around the base of the trough pulls through the region this afternoon, and will likely set off another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms. While highest PWs have pooled north of the region, 00z soundings reveal PW values in the 1.3-1.5" range across the region. The incoming forcing for ascent, moisture-laden airmass, and developing instability this afternoon should combine to yield additional showers and storms this afternoon.

SPC has continued the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the entire area today. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is 20-25 kt (at best)
today, so expect a mainly sub-severe storm mode, with a few storms that could become strong to severe. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary threats, especially as mid-level lapse rates quickly steepen this afternoon.

Minimal shear should allow for storms to weaken rather quickly as we get to mid to late evening. Main window for strong storms looks to be 3 to 7 pm. Partial clearing once again tonight, with more late night fog and low stratus anticipated. Look for late night/early morning lows in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Trending warmer Thursday and Friday. While afternoon and evening and storms will be lower in areal coverage, isolated to widely scattered aftn/early evening storms are possible each day.

Shortwave ridging building to the west will finally kick the lingering upper trough offshore Thursday into Friday. There will likely be enough leftover moisture and instability to result in additional isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon, albeit with lower coverage than we had yesterday or what is expected later today. Highs will be slightly warmer than Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s.

Previously referenced upper ridging kicks east for Friday, which should help limit areal coverage of storms even further to round out the work week. However, a potent upper level low pressure is forecast to deepen over the Great Lakes region Friday, with a pre-frontal trough then looking to sharpen to the NNW by afternoon. This could bring a few storms into the area by late in the day from the NW, and have accordingly maintained slight to low end chance PoPs.

The other story will be the briefly building heat for Friday into the weekend. SW flow will lift a warm front through the area on Friday morning. The incoming upper ridging, SW flow, and resultant rising heights should yield highs well into the 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to ~70 should yield max heat index values well into the 90s over much of the region.
Mild with lows in the 60s to near 70 Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summer-like warmth and humidity to begin the weekend on Saturday. Slightly cooler but remaining warm on Sunday and Monday but with less humidity.

- A few isolated to scattered showers possible Saturday, but mainly dry Sunday and Monday.

Similar weather story Saturday, as the Great Lakes system slowly swings east and the local area remains warm. Temperatures will be above normal Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to 90F with heat indices back into the 90s by afternoon. Late Saturday to early Sunday, a cold front will approach the region, which may cool the temperatures slightly into early next week. Confidence is not high on any precipitation at this time given the weakening front, as models continue to disagree on timing and amounts. Slight chance PoPs are forecast for the weekend. Monday looks to be dry behind the system.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Currently VFR across the region. A disturbance will move through the area this afternoon into early this evening. This will allow for showers and storms to move northeast across the area. Have opted to include a prob30 for TSRA at RIC, ORF, ECG and PHF between 21z and 01z later this afternoon into this evening. The strongest storms may bring brief IFR conditions.

Behind this disturbance, the precipitation should end and clouds should once again clear out. With additional low level moisture from today's rainfall, there is a possibility of IFR conditions to develop overnight into early Thu morning (similar to this morning).
These should lift and break up soon after sunrise with VFR conditions Thu morning.

Outlook: Additional showers and storms, albeit with steadily decreasing areal coverage is expected both Thu & Fri. Predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend.

MARINE
As of 205 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories linger across the coastal waters today for elevated seas.

- Calmer across the marine area for the remainder of the week, outside of daily showers and storms.

Elevated seas are lingering across the local coastal waters this afternoon with ~5ft S of Cape Charles and 5-7ft N. The SCA for the southern coastal waters did have to be extended until 4pm.
SCAs for northern coastal waters will continue into tonight.
Winds this afternoon are 5-10kt out of the SE. There will be the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become strong to severe and be capable of producing strong damaging winds. Expect seas to gradually subside through the night, reaching 3-4ft across the south and 4-5ft across the north by late tonight. SCAs should be allowed to drop off later tonight. Seas will be 3-4ft through Friday, then 2-3ft for the weekend. Winds will turn to the S tonight, remaining at 5-10kt.

Outside of any storms, winds look to remain rather benign through the remainder of the week. There may be brief period of slightly elevated but still sub-SCA winds Saturday night, especially across the lower Bay, but confidence is low for now. Daily shower and storm threats persist.

HYDROLOGY
The high rainfall amounts yesterday in the VA mountains is making its way down the James River. The Rivanna River at Palmyra gauge reached minor flood stage last night and a Flood Warning will remain in effect through late tonight. Along the James River, the Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and Richmond Locks gauges will reach minor flood stage this afternoon and evening as water continues to move towards the bay. Flood Warnings will go into effect in conjunction with the minor flooding.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-064- 069-081>086-089-090-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.