Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth City, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight through Saturday morning, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

2.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION
As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight through Saturday morning, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

Afternoon WX analysis shows an upper trough situated over the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon. At the surface, a broad high pressure is centered over the Ohio River Valley stretching up towards the Great Lakes region. Skies remain partly cloudy across most of the region with some fair weather cumulus across VA and MD.
While across NC skies remain mostly cloudy with some high level cirrus moving through the area. Temperatures remain at or just below average with mid to upper 40s across the south and upper 30s to low 40s across the north.

Throughout tonight high pressure builds into the area before settling over the area Friday into Friday night, before moving offshore Saturday. Low and high temperatures tonight through Saturday morning will remain below or near average, though not near as cold as the period from late January into the beginning of February. Low temperatures Tonight and Friday night will be in the low to middle 20s with upper 20s along the coast. While Fridays high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s south of I-64 and upper 30s to low 40s north. By Saturday, the high pressure will be offshore and moderating temperatures are expected.high temperatures reaching at least the upper 50s/around 60F inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay, with upper 40s/lower 50s across the Eastern Shore. In addition, the air mass will be quite dry over the next two days with RH values between 25-35% inland and 35-45% along the coast. Less wind and surface moisture from recent snow melt will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread beneficial rainfall.

A trough is expected to move south of the area Sunday into Monday.
At the surface, a low pressure is expected to develop to the west and track across the southern United States Saturday and then move into our area Sunday morning. Much needed beneficial rainfall is progged with this system Sunday morning into late Monday. The recent ensemble 12z/12 ensembles have come into better agreement on timing and QPF. The recent GEFS and ECMWF are showing 50 to 70% chance of QPF greater than an inch of rain across SE VA and NE NC. This is most likely due where the occluded front will be situated allowing for slightly higher precip rates and potentially causing for isolated higher totals. While further to the north Probs are between 30 to 50% for rain totals greater than an inch. Regardless, confidence on beneficial rainfall across the area remains high, especially as fire season commences on February 15th. Dry conditions are then expected by Tuesday into the middle of next week as high pressure builds in behind the late weekend system. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s along and NW of the low track, with 50s concentrated to the SE of the low track, which is generally S of the VA/NC border based on the 12z numerical guidance. There is little to no CAA behind this system. By the Tuesday and through the middle of the week temperatures are progged to moderate as an upper level ridge builds into the area.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 640 PM EST Thursday...

High pressure continues to build in from the W this evening. VFR conditions are noted as of 00z, prevailing through the TAF period. SCT high clouds are passing through the srn terminals with lingering stratocumulus on the lower MD Eastern Shore. This could bring SCT lower-level sky cover to SBY through at least the first part of the night, but still VFR. SKC Friday with a N-NW wind becoming 7-10 kt later in the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR prevails through Saturday night as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread rain is likely by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE
As of 309 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Another brief period of SCA conditions is expected in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight into early Friday morning, as another push of drier air moves into the region.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Friday through the majority of the weekend, as high pressure remains dominant. The next system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional headlines.

High pressure extending from the Great Lakes Region through the Tennessee Valley region has started to build across our area this afternoon, and the gradient has begun to relax. Coastal waters south of Cape Charles are still measuring 3-5 ft seas, so SCAs remain in effect for these waters, but elsewhere, winds and seas have dropped below SCA criteria for the time being. Current wind observations across the area range between 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kt in the bay, and 15-20 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts across the coastal waters. The Chesapeake Bay will see another chance to reach SCA conditions as even drier air filters across the area as high pressure settles across the region tonight. Another SCA just for the Bay has been issued to capture this overnight wind surge, though it will be on the marginal side.

High pressure will remain across the region for a majority of the weekend, leading to benign marine conditions Friday through Sunday evening. The next best chance for SCA conditions comes Sunday night into Monday as a low pressure system moves across the area. At this time, there still remains uncertainty in the exact track and evolution of this system. Have kept SCA conditions in the forecast for now, but the forecast could go up or down pending the track of the low, though the low does look to remain relatively weak as it traverses through the region.

Seas will trend down tonight, though waves in the Bay will likely build back to 2-3 ft after this afternoon's lull. Thereafter, waves and seas will trend downwards through the weekend, with 1 ft waves expected in the Bay and ~2 ft seas forecast for the coastal waters.
As the aforementioned low moves through the area, seas will once again build through the first part of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.