Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth City, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1005 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a slight chance for late afternoon/evening thunderstorms across SE VA and NE NC.

- Lows fall into the 60s tonight with lower humidity.

Late morning wx analysis shows strong low pressure at the surface and aloft over the northern Great Lakes, with a cold front over the Ohio Valley. Tstms that crossed the area early this morning have dissipated, leaving behind some clouds (although it has cleared out across our far NW counties). Expect clearing to occur from W-E during the next few hours. While forecast highs have been lowered with the morning update, still think it will get into the mid-upper 80s this aftn.

The cold front will approach later today and cross the area this evening-tonight as the parent trough/shortwave slides well to the N. There is little support for convection redeveloping along the front this afternoon and SPC has dropped both the Marginal and general thunder risks for our entire CWA Still, can't completely rule out isolated shower/tstm development across SE VA and NE NC (mainly between 4-10 PM). So will keep the 20% PoPs here. Dew points will be dropping off through the afternoon as drier air filters in, so it will not feel as humid as it did yesterday. WSW winds also become gusty (up to 25-30 mph) this afternoon. Partly cloudy overnight with lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry Sunday and Monday while still remaining warm.

Upper low and troughing over the NE CONUS will favor dry conditions to start the new week. Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s both days, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows Sun and Mon night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. A few of the typically cooler spots could dip into the upper 40s Mon night as high pressure briefly settles overhead.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday.

- Below average temperatures expected by late next week and likely last into next weekend.

Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE by Friday/Friday night. Tuesday night-Wednesday looks like the wettest period, with a drying trend expected by Thu as cooler air filters in from the NW and the associated sfc low tracks to NE of the area. While this doesn't look like a very wet system, decent rainfall totals are possible given the longer duration. GEFS/EPS probs are quite similar for greater than 0.5" and 1" of QPF during this period, with around 70-90% and 30-60% (highest N), respectively.

With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler
and likely below seasonal norms
by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, though some moderating in temps is possible by Sat-Sun, as suggested by the NBM and ensemble guidance.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 720 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 12z/17 TAF period. Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) are possible at all terminals over the next few hours before chances greatly diminish later this morning. Showers are not expected to cause any flight restrictions. Becoming breezy later this morning and into this afternoon with W-WSW winds of 15 kt and 20-30 kt gusts. Mainly high clouds are expected tonight into Sunday morning, with W winds dropping off to around 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- SW winds increase this afternoon/evening, gusting to 20 to 25 kt in the lower Chesapeake Bay/York/James River and Currituck Sound. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

- NW winds increase Sunday evening into early Monday, potentially approaching SCA thresholds, especially across the Chesapeake Bay.

- Generally Sub-SCA conditions return Monday afternoon into Tuesday, before potentially becoming breezier by mid-week.

Early this morning, SW winds over the waters are running around 5 to 10 knots. Showers and thunderstorms approach the waters from the west as we approach sunrise, with a few of these showers/storms potentially producing localized gusty winds (low confidence). Any lingering showers/storms move well offshore by ~10 AM. Otherwise, the pressure gradient picks up over the waters somewhat this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will become rather gusty over land, however some of these 20kt gusts will likely impact the southern Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers and Currituck Sound. A SCA remains in effect for these areas this afternoon into this evening. SW winds decrease early this evening as the front pushes through. Behind the front, winds gradually turn W then NW on Sunday. Low pressure then deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night into Monday which should allow for NW winds to increase to around 15 kt across the waters. SCAs may be needed for at least portions of the Chesapeake Bay with this northerly surge but there is still some uncertainty. Winds gradually turn to the east by Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and a frontal boundary stays south of the region. Becoming more unsettled by mid-week, with multiple chances for SCAs Wednesday and beyond.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-636>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.