Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:34AM||Sunset 6:55PM||Friday September 17, 2021 8:20 AM PDT (15:20 UTC)||Moonrise 5:35PM||Moonset 2:51AM||Illumination 84%|
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Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KVEF 170943 AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 243 AM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021
SYNOPSIS. A weather disturbance will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday, mainly for Southern Nevada, Northwestern Arizona, and the eastern Mojave Desert in California. Breezy winds can be expected as well. Drier air returns Sunday onward along with a cooling trend which will last through early next week.
SHORT TERM. through Saturday night.
Fairly tranquil conditions exist across the region early this morning but changes are in play as a weak closed low off the SoCal coast lifts inland in the next 24-36 hours. Ahead of this feature, strong mid-level moisture advection will surge northward, promoting an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday afternoon through Saturday. A field of broken altocumulus and associated mid level instability is actually already visible on this mornings infrared satellite imagery over the western Sonoran desert, and this mid level cloud cover will begin to work into our region from south to north during the day today. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected as this moisture moves in, though precipitation amounts will be fairly light and spotty at first owing to the moisture being focused in the 500-700mb layer with fairly dry low levels initially.
Tonight, the closed low offshore will lift inland while weakening as its absorbed by a larger trough moving into the PacNW. As this occurs, strong PVA and a 300mb jet maxima of 50-70 knots will overspread southern Nevada, resulting in robust vertical forcing for nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, mainly across southern Nevada, Northwestern Arizona, and far eastern San Bernardino county. HREF and CAM guidance favors the most widespread precipitation in Lincoln county, where forcing and moisture depth are greatest, with more isolated to scattered storm activity elsewhere.
The low will lift into Utah on Saturday with mid-level stability increasing along with drier air moving in from west to east in the afternoon. This will shift chances into mainly Mohave and eastern Lincoln counties by the afternoon and evening.
Overall storm strength through this episode will be limited by marginal instability, but the lack of instability may be compensated for by the strong forcing and rather organized shear profile. Any longer lived updrafts which manage to maintain themselves will carry and attendant wind risk, along with the possibility of small hail. Storm motion will be quite swift, which will limit the flash flood risk considerably unless storms train over the same area for a prolonged period.
LONG TERM. Sunday through Friday
A strong upper-level trough will move through just north of the CWA early Sunday. The passage of this trough will clear out any excess moisture hanging around from Friday and Saturday, and we will see precipitable water values return to the normal range for this time of year. An upper-level ridge and high pressure system are expected to move into our area from off the western coast of California early next week. As a result, warm and dry conditions accompanied by lighter winds are expected to persist through mid-week. Clear skies associated with this ridge will allow for strong daytime heating to occur, which means that temperatures will be slightly above seasonal averages for mid-to-late September during the latter half of the week. With the ridge hanging out in our area there is no precipitation expected during this period.
Uncertainty in the forecast increases Thursday into Friday as 500 mb Cluster Analyses show significant disagreement as to whether there will be an upper-level ridge or trough off the West Coast. In addition to the disagreement in the 500 mb Cluster Analyses, recent ensemble runs show more members are hinting at an increase moisture during the latter half of the week than yesterday. However, confidence still remains low as this is at the end of the forecast period, and there is no clear consensus amongst ensemble members. Should the moisture return, the areas most likely to be affected are Mohave, Clark, and eastern San Bernardino counties.
AVIATION. For McCarran . High confidence in the first half of the TAF period, then confidence quickly decreases late this afternoon and overnight as convection may impact the terminals or nearby areas through the night.
Light winds this morning will transitions to southeast then south through the late morning and afternoon. Wind direction later this morning should favor a more southeast direction, about 130-160 degrees. After about 20Z, winds should shift slightly more south, about 160-180 degrees, though winds may sit around 150-160 for a few more hours between 20Z-22Z. Winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts 20-25KT likely.
Convection is expected to blossom across southern Nevada early this evening. Low confidence in the evolution of this system and therefore how thunderstorms will develop as it moves through. The most likely time period for thunderstorms to be in or around the valley will be 03Z-12Z, though TS may be nearby as early as 23Z and as late as 15Z. Sudden gusty winds and outflows will be possible with any storms, especially 00Z through 09Z. Any thunderstorms could produce brief heavy rain and CIGs to 8000ft. Winds overnight should follow typical diurnal wind patterns outside of any convective influence, with gusts ending after 03Z and light winds expected by Saturday early morning.
Thunderstorms may continue or redevelop Saturday afternoon, however higher chances for convection after 15Z Saturday should be over southern Utah western Arizona.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California . Smoke will continue to plague BIH through at least the morning, with visibilities between 3-5SM and BKN CIGs due to smoke around 3000-5000ft. Improvement is expected this afternoon, though it is uncertain if smoke will fully clear out. Low confidence in overnight TAF forecast as it is uncertain how much additional smoke will be pushed in on gusty southeast winds this afternoon. Current TAF is optimistic it will clear out but continued reduced VSBYs are possible tonight as well. Gusts to around 25KT likely this afternoon at BIH before dissipating this evening.
Otherwise, quiet weather is likely through the early afternoon. Increasing south to southwest are expected again this afternoon, with gusts generally 20-25KT for most locations. This evening and overnight, scattered convection is expected to develop and push northeast. Highest chances will be through Clark County into Lincoln County and northwest Mohave County after 00Z, and especially after 06Z through northern Clark into Lincoln County. Gusty outflow winds, CIGs down to 8000ft, and brief heavy rain is possible with any storms. Outside of convection, winds are expected to diminish this evening and follow typical wind patterns through the overnight hours.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through Saturday evening. Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
SHORT TERM . Outler LONG TERM . Stessman AVIATION . Nickerson
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|China Lake, Naval Air Facility, CA||46 mi||24 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||66°F||33°F||29%||1013.3 hPa|
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Wind History from NID (wind in knots)
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