Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coinjock, NC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coinjock, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 081756 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The upper low will bring scattered showers and storms to the region today and Friday, before high pressure returns with dry weather and a warming trend for the upcoming weekend. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will persist through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1010 AM Wednesday...

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a deep upper low centered over ME, with cyclonic flow from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the Mid- Atlantic, and an embedded potent shortwave trough pushing across the central/southern Appalachians this morning. At the surface, a weak sfc low lingers over the local area. Temperatures range through the 60s. Early morning dense fog has lifted and the Dense Fog Advisory has expired.
Concerning smoke, an Air Quality Alert remains in effect for all metro areas today and will continue the mention for all remaining zones in the HWO) (for rural areas not covered by the AQA). Some improvement has been observed locally this morning with regard to smoke. However, smoke has become rather dense in northern VA, and the HRRR smoke projections have been consistent showing this moving into central VA this afternoon, and to Hampton Roads by this evening. Confidence is low with regard to vsby restriction. However, vsby of 1-3sm is widespread in northern VA E of the Blue Ridge and this will likely move into central VA in the wake of the shortwave trough.

Other than fog and HZ/smoke, the other main WX concern today will be from the aforementioned shortwave trough, which is forecast to track through southern VA and NC later this morning through early aftn. This timing will likely lead to an earlier than usual development of showers/tstms. GOES cloud phase distinction RGB and the visible channel depict a CU/AC field from n-central VA to the Eastern Shore with embedded showers and a few in-cloud lightning discharges. Have PoPs increasing to high chc for areas along and E of I-95 through 11am, lasting into the late aftn and will use coverage wording. Will again undercut MOS and NBM by a few degrees for highs due to the smoke. Highs will range from the low-mid 70s E to the mid- upper 70s W. While widespread severe storms are not expected today, steep mid level lapse are noted on BUFKIT forecast soundings from both the NAM and GFS (700-500mb lapse rates of 6.5 to 7C/Km). This often leads to "over- performing" days locally, particularly for hail, though the slightly cooler low levels due to the smoke may act to inhibit the strength of the convection to some extent. Either way, will mention the threat for a few strong storms in the HWO. The timing of the shortwave and early start time may lead to an earlier end than usual w/ mainly dry conditions before sunset. Also, w/ a decent dew pt boundary (dry W-higher E), expect mainly dry conditions today in the piedmont. Becoming mostly clear tonight (aside from HZ) with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s W to the mid/upper 50s toward the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...

For Friday, the forecast is for the final shortwave to rotate through the upper trough as it finally exits to the coast by Friday night. Timing looks to be during the aftn so expect a dry morning, with aftn convection. Aftn PoPs for showers/tstms range from only 10-15% SW to 30-40% along and to the N/NE of the I-64 corridor. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s N/NE to the upper 70s/around 80F SW. Dry Saturday as the upper trough will have finally retreated to the NE as an upper level ridge across the central CONUS expands to the E. Smoke may finally clear out (and become confined more to the N/NE of the local area) behind the upper trough axis. High temperatures range from the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 415 AM Thursday...

The medium range period looks to become more typical of June as the upper trough will be replaced (briefly) by a weak upper ridge on Sunday (the first hint of ridging developing over the area in quite a while (2+ weeks). This will likely allow temperatures to rebound a little above seasonal norms with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F Sunday in advance of the next system. Another cut off upper low then forms over the Upper Great Lakes region and slowly moves E into Monday. Associated 500 mb shortwave trough will also pivot across the OH River Valley into the Appalachians. The models differ a bit with timing and strength of a warm front pushing through the region late Sunday. Will maintain slight chc PoPs in the piedmont Sun aftn but most of the storms should stay W through sunset, with 20-30% PoPs Sun night/early Mon. The main sfc feature with this system will be a cold front that crosses the area Monday aftn into early Tuesday. This looks to bring the next chance of rather widespread showers/rain to area, with thunderstorms also possible if the FROPA occurs during the favorable diurnal window. Rather good agreement between the global models on the precip footprint, so have maintained PoPs up into the 60-70% range areawide for Monday aftn and evening. Highs in the lower- mid 80s Mon with noticeably more humid conditions (dew pts upper 60s/near 70F). Broad troughing then remains over the area through the middle of next week with embedded shortwaves also sliding E. However, the current depiction of the sfc features keeps the local area in more of a low level W to SW flow Tue-Wed so while this pattern would favor daily chances of mainly diurnal showers/tstms, temperatures would be near normal with highs in the low-mid 80s, possibly warming in the upper 80s towards the end of the week. Lows generally in the low- mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...

A potent shortwave trough is tracking across the region as of 18z triggering scattered showers/tstms across eastern VA and the Eastern Shore. SBY is having a direct impact at this time, with the activity E of RIC, and less confidence of a direct impact at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Any showers/tstms have the potentially to produce IFR vsby and variable wind gusts to 20-25kt.
Additionally, smoke is wrapping in behind the shortwave trough with vsby ranging from 2-4sm from central/n-central VA to the northern Delmarva. This should gradually spread SE affecting the TAF sites through the aftn and evening. Most observations also report a BKN-OVC cig ~2.5kt with the smoke. Smoke and haze will likely persist overnight into Friday, with lower confidence of how much vsby restriction will occur. Another shortwave trough will bring a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms Friday aftn. The wind will generally be out of the N/NE or shift from SSW to N/NE this aftn, then light and variable tonight, and NNW 5-10kt Friday.

Dry conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday, with likely some improvement in the smoke situation. A chc of showers/tstms arrives Monday, with drier conditions returning Tuesday.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Smoke from wildfires in Canada will continue to impacting the area through Fri and may occasionally cause reduced visibility over local waters when mixing is maximized. High pressure gradually builds in from the Great Lakes today into Sat, centering over the Carolinas Sat. Winds this morning were SW 5-10 kt. Winds become E 7-12 kt this afternoon with the seabreeze making it well inland. Scattered showers/storms will be possible from late morning through the afternoon as a shortwave aloft moves through. Winds may be locally stronger with any storms. Convection moves offshore by this evening with winds becoming S by midnight and NW by Fri morning. Winds will again follow the typical summertime diurnal pattern Fri and Sat, shifting from NW/N in the morning to onshore in the afternoon. High pressure moves offshore Sat night with winds becoming S 10-15 kt. A warm front lifts N late Sun night into early Mon with a cold front pushing through from the W late Mon night into Tues morning. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Sun through early Mon night with SCAs possible. Winds become SW 10-15 kt late Mon night/early Tues morning behind the cold front.

Waves and seas remain around 1 foot (1-2 ft at the mouth of the bay)
and 2 ft respectively today through Sat. Waves and seas build Sat night into Mon with 2-3 ft waves and 4-5 ft seas possible from late Sun into early Tues. SCAs may be needed for elevated seas during this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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