Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mountain Home, AR
December 7, 2024 5:29 PM CST (23:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:11 AM Sunset 4:57 PM Moonrise 12:08 PM Moonset 11:26 PM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KLZK 071956 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 156 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Broad sfc high pressure was analyzed over the greater S/Ern US and Gulf Coast region, w/ the Nrn periphery of anti-cyclonic sfc flow lying acrs the local FA, driving primarily S/Wrly winds. Thru the remainder of Sat aftn and evng, expect settled and warm condns, w/ some incrsg cloud covg noted fm Srn to Nrn AR.
Main talking point thru the short term remains incrsg rain chances thru late Sat night and Sun as a sfc wrmfrnt advances Nwrd in conjunction w/ an approaching compact H500 trof progged to eject into the Srn Plains. QPF amounts w/ this system have trended down locally, as evidenced by recent model guidance including the 12Z HRRR mean QPF, which was indicative of the primary rainfall axis trending E-S/Ewrd into the ARKLAMISS vcty. The S/Ern half of the state (split by the I-30/I-57 corridor) currently lies on the gradient of appreciable rainfall...characterized by QPF amounts generally one-half inch or more...and amounts of one inch or greater in far S/Ern AR, while the N/Wrn half of the state will likely see one-quarter inch or less of rainfall thru Mon night.
Temps on Sun and Mon wl cont an upward trend invof modest WAA, along w/ incrsg low-lvl moisture. Expect daily high readings in the mid to upper 50s on Sun, w/ readings climbing to the upper 50s to mid 60s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR on Mon.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
A positively tilted upper trough will pivot across the Cntrl and N- Cntrl Plains Monday night into Tuesday. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure and associated cold front will push across AR bringing the chance of light rain showers to mainly the Ern half of AR. QPF amounts should be marginal at best, with amounts ranging from a couple hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch.
The bulk of QPF should fall during the short term period. The aforementioned cold front will sweep across the state during the day on Tuesday with drier and cooler air advecting into the region.
An upper level ridge will build along the W coast on Wednesday as flow becomes NWrly across the nations mid-section. This pattern will allow high pressure to move into the region from the Srn Plains with near or slightly below average temperatures expected to return through mid-week.
Later in the period, surface high pressure will move into the TN and OH Valleys and resultant SW flow will resume across the Srn MS Valley. Warm and moist air advection should allow temperatures to climb above average to end the period. Unsettled weather could return around the Friday time frame, however many details still need to be ironed out. As it stands, long range guidance depicts a shortwave trough ejecting from the Four Corners region towards AR but spatial and temporal differences remain.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
VFR condns were noted acrs the FA, and are expected to persist thru at least 08/00Z Sat night before incrsg cloud covg wl begin to stream in fm the south. Thru the PD, expect Srly winds, w/ a wrmfrnt beginning to advance Nwrd after 08/00Z. Condns wl begin to deteriorate, over Srn terminals initially, and impacting Cntrl to Nrn terminals by 08/12Z, w/ primarily MVFR CIGs expected thru the TAF PD...IFR CIGs may become more prevalent after 08/18Z. Some scattered light precip wl accompany the leading edge of the frnt thru the early mrng hrs Sun, impacting mainly Srn terminals, w/ another rd of scattered precip possible beyond 08/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 42 53 46 59 / 10 90 70 10 Camden AR 41 59 50 68 / 60 90 70 10 Harrison AR 42 58 44 57 / 0 70 20 0 Hot Springs AR 41 55 48 64 / 40 90 60 10 Little Rock AR 44 55 48 63 / 30 90 70 20 Monticello AR 43 62 53 70 / 50 90 90 20 Mount Ida AR 41 55 46 65 / 30 90 40 10 Mountain Home AR 41 58 44 57 / 0 80 40 10 Newport AR 41 53 48 60 / 10 90 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 42 58 51 68 / 50 90 80 10 Russellville AR 42 55 46 62 / 10 80 40 10 Searcy AR 41 53 47 61 / 10 90 70 10 Stuttgart AR 44 56 51 65 / 30 90 90 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 156 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
Broad sfc high pressure was analyzed over the greater S/Ern US and Gulf Coast region, w/ the Nrn periphery of anti-cyclonic sfc flow lying acrs the local FA, driving primarily S/Wrly winds. Thru the remainder of Sat aftn and evng, expect settled and warm condns, w/ some incrsg cloud covg noted fm Srn to Nrn AR.
Main talking point thru the short term remains incrsg rain chances thru late Sat night and Sun as a sfc wrmfrnt advances Nwrd in conjunction w/ an approaching compact H500 trof progged to eject into the Srn Plains. QPF amounts w/ this system have trended down locally, as evidenced by recent model guidance including the 12Z HRRR mean QPF, which was indicative of the primary rainfall axis trending E-S/Ewrd into the ARKLAMISS vcty. The S/Ern half of the state (split by the I-30/I-57 corridor) currently lies on the gradient of appreciable rainfall...characterized by QPF amounts generally one-half inch or more...and amounts of one inch or greater in far S/Ern AR, while the N/Wrn half of the state will likely see one-quarter inch or less of rainfall thru Mon night.
Temps on Sun and Mon wl cont an upward trend invof modest WAA, along w/ incrsg low-lvl moisture. Expect daily high readings in the mid to upper 50s on Sun, w/ readings climbing to the upper 50s to mid 60s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR on Mon.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
A positively tilted upper trough will pivot across the Cntrl and N- Cntrl Plains Monday night into Tuesday. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure and associated cold front will push across AR bringing the chance of light rain showers to mainly the Ern half of AR. QPF amounts should be marginal at best, with amounts ranging from a couple hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch.
The bulk of QPF should fall during the short term period. The aforementioned cold front will sweep across the state during the day on Tuesday with drier and cooler air advecting into the region.
An upper level ridge will build along the W coast on Wednesday as flow becomes NWrly across the nations mid-section. This pattern will allow high pressure to move into the region from the Srn Plains with near or slightly below average temperatures expected to return through mid-week.
Later in the period, surface high pressure will move into the TN and OH Valleys and resultant SW flow will resume across the Srn MS Valley. Warm and moist air advection should allow temperatures to climb above average to end the period. Unsettled weather could return around the Friday time frame, however many details still need to be ironed out. As it stands, long range guidance depicts a shortwave trough ejecting from the Four Corners region towards AR but spatial and temporal differences remain.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024
VFR condns were noted acrs the FA, and are expected to persist thru at least 08/00Z Sat night before incrsg cloud covg wl begin to stream in fm the south. Thru the PD, expect Srly winds, w/ a wrmfrnt beginning to advance Nwrd after 08/00Z. Condns wl begin to deteriorate, over Srn terminals initially, and impacting Cntrl to Nrn terminals by 08/12Z, w/ primarily MVFR CIGs expected thru the TAF PD...IFR CIGs may become more prevalent after 08/18Z. Some scattered light precip wl accompany the leading edge of the frnt thru the early mrng hrs Sun, impacting mainly Srn terminals, w/ another rd of scattered precip possible beyond 08/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 42 53 46 59 / 10 90 70 10 Camden AR 41 59 50 68 / 60 90 70 10 Harrison AR 42 58 44 57 / 0 70 20 0 Hot Springs AR 41 55 48 64 / 40 90 60 10 Little Rock AR 44 55 48 63 / 30 90 70 20 Monticello AR 43 62 53 70 / 50 90 90 20 Mount Ida AR 41 55 46 65 / 30 90 40 10 Mountain Home AR 41 58 44 57 / 0 80 40 10 Newport AR 41 53 48 60 / 10 90 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 42 58 51 68 / 50 90 80 10 Russellville AR 42 55 46 62 / 10 80 40 10 Searcy AR 41 53 47 61 / 10 90 70 10 Stuttgart AR 44 56 51 65 / 30 90 90 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBPK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBPK
Wind History Graph: BPK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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