NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KLZK 071939 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 139 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Mesoanalysis shows upper troughing coming ashore in the PacNW this afternoon with the axis of a downstream upper ridge stretching from Srn Canada SEwrd thru the Midwest and into the Ern Gulf. Broad anticyclonic flow around a sfc ridge centered over the AL/GA border continues feeding moisture poleward across TX/OK, and as this feature moves Ewrd tonight into Fri, moisture advection will increase over AR.

Meanwhile, upper troughing will translate across the Wrn states and emerge over the Srn high Plains by Fri evening. A SW-to-NE oriented sfc front draped over TX/OK/MO will sharpen as low-level mass fields respond and WAA/moisture advection further increase. As the warm conveyor feeding into the approaching system strengthens Fri, iso to sctd elevated convection will become possible over NWrn/Nrn sections by Fri night into Sat morning. Confidence in this convection developing remains low, although marginally severe hail will be possible with any overnight/morning storms that manage to develop.

A modest sfc cyclone is progged to translate NEwrd along the front on Sat, likely passing invof the AR/OK/MO border, although there is still some ambiguity in how this feature will move. Regardless, the atmosphere S and E of the low/front will remain at least conditionally supportive of severe storms thru the day Sat and into Sat evening. Strong flow in the mid/upper levels will contribute to deep shear on the order of 40 to 50 kts, which is plenty for organized convection. MUCAPE between 1000 and 1500 J/kg will similarly be supportive of organized convection.

One primary question remains largely unanswered with this fcst cycle: despite favorable thermo and dynamic parameters as well as model solutions generating reflectivity/QPF of some degree along and ahead of the front, cross sectional analysis shows no real signal for true deep convection, but instead shows persistently dry air above 700 mb. Once the upper trough catches up with the sfc front over Ern AR and E of the MS River, a more consistent signal for deep convection appears in the data. This suggests phasing issues between mid/upper and sfc features, hence the continued low confidence in when, where, or even if stronger storms will develop in AR.

Early CAM guidance suggests roughly the SErn half of the state will see some degree of deep convection initiate, and with the favorable atmosphere in place (aside from aforementioned phasing issues), will maintain severe potential in line with the current SPC outlook. Flow curvature will be maximized earlier in the day as the sfc low passes to our NW with fcst hodographs becoming more linear thru the day.
All severe hazards will be possible with a trend towards clustered/linear modes and an associated wind/hail threat later on Sat over Ern/SErn AR.

The upper trough axis will push thru the area Sat night with the front and precip exiting to our E early Sun morning. Modest CAA in the post-frontal air mass could support a brief RA/SN mix in Nrn AR in the pre-dawn hours Sun, although this is only a low-end possibility with no accums or impacts expected.

For the first half of next week, flow aloft will transition from NWrly to largely zonal as one upper trough moves into the Atlantic and another moves ashore invof CA. Sfc ridging will maintain substantial influence on local weather with quiescent conditions expected. Temps that were slightly cooler than average in the wake of this weekend's front will gradually moderate to near or slightly above average by the end of the period as Srly sfc flow returns and upper ridging builds over the area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions are occurring at the beginning of the period. Wind direction will be out of the south- southwest, gusting up to nearly 30 mph across portions of northwest AR, and up to about 25 mph elsewhere in the state.

Cloud cover will increase through the period, with MVFR cloud cover moving across much of the forecast area by Friday morning. Wind shear conditions are forecast across much of the CWA as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 45 62 53 63 / 0 20 90 60 Camden AR 47 66 59 71 / 0 20 70 80 Harrison AR 48 61 45 55 / 0 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 47 66 56 66 / 0 30 80 60 Little Rock AR 48 66 58 69 / 0 20 90 70 Monticello AR 47 66 60 72 / 0 20 70 90 Mount Ida AR 47 66 53 65 / 0 30 80 50 Mountain Home AR 45 60 48 57 / 0 20 70 30 Newport AR 46 62 56 64 / 0 20 80 70 Pine Bluff AR 46 66 59 71 / 0 20 80 80 Russellville AR 46 65 52 64 / 0 30 80 40 Searcy AR 44 64 55 64 / 0 20 90 70 Stuttgart AR 47 65 59 69 / 0 10 80 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Springfield, MO,