Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mountain Home, AR
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM Moonset 3:30 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mountain Home, AR
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KLZK 231115 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 615 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
New AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
An active pattern will form up later this afternoon, with multiple different impulses moving through the area over the next five days. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main threat, but there will be isolated severe weather through the period as well.
The pattern starts off when a lee-side low pressure system develops quickly over SW Colorado this afternoon. Zonal flow with a week ridge aloft allows for a NW flow pattern and a more June like weather regime to form up. Storms will form up over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the afternoon along a warm front on the edge of a LL jet. As this LLJ increases into the evening, upscale growth will occur along the boundary as storms intensify and a MCS-like feature forms up over the OK/MO/AR border region.
This boundary will push into NW Arkansas just after sunset and will be the main focal point for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding as this MCS moves into the area. Soundings indicate the lifting for these storms will be elevated with just enough MUCAPE to form up lighting and a moist adiabatic lapse rate. If a cold pool can develop and propagate forward there could be a wind threat, but the hail threat looks rather low overnight. The latest HRRR suggest the wind threat would be from the later MCS after 9Z that originates in KS after midnight. NBM probabilities show good confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding with the 90th percentile showing a swath of 2" from central AR and north and the potential for up to 4" over NW AR through 1pm on Saturday. This MCS will propagate southward through the morning into the early afternoon before weakening in southern AR. This will be the first round of heavy rainfall, which will set up a possible higher-end flooding event Saturday into Monday with saturated soils and minor to moderate flooding already occurring.
Saturday night will see a similar trend to the night before but with storms forming slightly further south in the evening and overnight hours. The focus once again looks to be northern Arkansas on the leading edge of the LLJ. NBM probabilities once again show the 90th percentile, or reasonable worst case, rainfall being 1-3 inches from central to northern AR, with NW AR seeing the highest 24 hour totals as of 1PM Sunday. MCS movement and cold pool propagation will play a big part in how Sunday plays out, but the overall trend is storms finally forming over southern AR, with another round of MCS like storms forming along the warm front and nose of the LLJ again Sunday into Monday. Sunday 7am to Monday 7am shows most the state seeing an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks start out with a Slight over NW AR, but progressively increase the spatial size over northern AR Sat into Sun and then upgrade to a Moderate Sunday into Monday. If the higher end totals do come to reality each evening, expect these to likely be upgraded as we get closer to the event.
The pattern gets messy Sunday into Monday when a shortwave trough pushes and shifts the stationary boundary/warm front to the south.
Where this boundary actually stalls will likely have the highest rainfall totals, but that does look to be more in central to southern AR. The shift to a more W-SW flow aloft will bring in more of a severe threat Sunday into Monday over western AR.
Looking through the entire event from Friday through Monday most of the state along I30 and I40 east of Little Rock may see 2-4 inches with NW AR seeing 3-6 inches with some areas seeing 7-8 inches possible over far NW AR. While severe weather will be possible with the stronger MCS signals each night, the main threat is going to be widespread flooding and flash flooding along creeks and rivers. Being Memorial Day Weekend, anybody who is camping, floating, or near rivers in central to northern AR needs to be weather aware and have a plan to evacuate to higher ground immediately if they receive a flash flood warning or start to experience high rates of rainfall. For this reason we have kept the Flood Watch out valid tonight into Monday evening.
The pattern looks active next week as well, but there is a good amount of model variability on exact days or patterns for now. We will start to message more of that event as we get close to the end of the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
VFR conditions will dominate for the beginning of the period, but a weather system will push into northern Arkansas around sunset that will start and active pattern for the areas. Expect a line of thunderstorms to push into northern Arkansas after sunset with this boundary moving south throughout the night. Most guidance has the system get into central Arkansas just before sunrise. These systems are difficult to time, so expect an hour or so of leeway in timing. The boundary will come with lower MVFR ceilings and visibility in moderate to heavy rain. The heaviest rain and lowest IFR ceilings will stay to the north through the end of this period, but will push south in the next set of TAFs.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 74 59 72 63 / 10 80 80 70 Camden AR 87 68 87 70 / 0 10 20 10 Harrison AR 71 58 71 60 / 40 90 80 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 83 66 / 10 40 40 20 Little Rock AR 79 64 79 67 / 10 50 60 30 Monticello AR 86 69 86 71 / 0 10 30 10 Mount Ida AR 82 64 84 67 / 10 50 40 20 Mountain Home AR 72 57 70 60 / 40 90 80 90 Newport AR 74 61 73 64 / 10 80 80 70 Pine Bluff AR 83 66 83 69 / 0 30 40 20 Russellville AR 78 62 78 65 / 10 70 70 40 Searcy AR 76 60 76 64 / 10 70 70 50 Stuttgart AR 79 65 78 68 / 10 40 60 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for ARZ004>007-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 615 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
New AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
An active pattern will form up later this afternoon, with multiple different impulses moving through the area over the next five days. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main threat, but there will be isolated severe weather through the period as well.
The pattern starts off when a lee-side low pressure system develops quickly over SW Colorado this afternoon. Zonal flow with a week ridge aloft allows for a NW flow pattern and a more June like weather regime to form up. Storms will form up over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the afternoon along a warm front on the edge of a LL jet. As this LLJ increases into the evening, upscale growth will occur along the boundary as storms intensify and a MCS-like feature forms up over the OK/MO/AR border region.
This boundary will push into NW Arkansas just after sunset and will be the main focal point for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding as this MCS moves into the area. Soundings indicate the lifting for these storms will be elevated with just enough MUCAPE to form up lighting and a moist adiabatic lapse rate. If a cold pool can develop and propagate forward there could be a wind threat, but the hail threat looks rather low overnight. The latest HRRR suggest the wind threat would be from the later MCS after 9Z that originates in KS after midnight. NBM probabilities show good confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding with the 90th percentile showing a swath of 2" from central AR and north and the potential for up to 4" over NW AR through 1pm on Saturday. This MCS will propagate southward through the morning into the early afternoon before weakening in southern AR. This will be the first round of heavy rainfall, which will set up a possible higher-end flooding event Saturday into Monday with saturated soils and minor to moderate flooding already occurring.
Saturday night will see a similar trend to the night before but with storms forming slightly further south in the evening and overnight hours. The focus once again looks to be northern Arkansas on the leading edge of the LLJ. NBM probabilities once again show the 90th percentile, or reasonable worst case, rainfall being 1-3 inches from central to northern AR, with NW AR seeing the highest 24 hour totals as of 1PM Sunday. MCS movement and cold pool propagation will play a big part in how Sunday plays out, but the overall trend is storms finally forming over southern AR, with another round of MCS like storms forming along the warm front and nose of the LLJ again Sunday into Monday. Sunday 7am to Monday 7am shows most the state seeing an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks start out with a Slight over NW AR, but progressively increase the spatial size over northern AR Sat into Sun and then upgrade to a Moderate Sunday into Monday. If the higher end totals do come to reality each evening, expect these to likely be upgraded as we get closer to the event.
The pattern gets messy Sunday into Monday when a shortwave trough pushes and shifts the stationary boundary/warm front to the south.
Where this boundary actually stalls will likely have the highest rainfall totals, but that does look to be more in central to southern AR. The shift to a more W-SW flow aloft will bring in more of a severe threat Sunday into Monday over western AR.
Looking through the entire event from Friday through Monday most of the state along I30 and I40 east of Little Rock may see 2-4 inches with NW AR seeing 3-6 inches with some areas seeing 7-8 inches possible over far NW AR. While severe weather will be possible with the stronger MCS signals each night, the main threat is going to be widespread flooding and flash flooding along creeks and rivers. Being Memorial Day Weekend, anybody who is camping, floating, or near rivers in central to northern AR needs to be weather aware and have a plan to evacuate to higher ground immediately if they receive a flash flood warning or start to experience high rates of rainfall. For this reason we have kept the Flood Watch out valid tonight into Monday evening.
The pattern looks active next week as well, but there is a good amount of model variability on exact days or patterns for now. We will start to message more of that event as we get close to the end of the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
VFR conditions will dominate for the beginning of the period, but a weather system will push into northern Arkansas around sunset that will start and active pattern for the areas. Expect a line of thunderstorms to push into northern Arkansas after sunset with this boundary moving south throughout the night. Most guidance has the system get into central Arkansas just before sunrise. These systems are difficult to time, so expect an hour or so of leeway in timing. The boundary will come with lower MVFR ceilings and visibility in moderate to heavy rain. The heaviest rain and lowest IFR ceilings will stay to the north through the end of this period, but will push south in the next set of TAFs.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 74 59 72 63 / 10 80 80 70 Camden AR 87 68 87 70 / 0 10 20 10 Harrison AR 71 58 71 60 / 40 90 80 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 83 66 / 10 40 40 20 Little Rock AR 79 64 79 67 / 10 50 60 30 Monticello AR 86 69 86 71 / 0 10 30 10 Mount Ida AR 82 64 84 67 / 10 50 40 20 Mountain Home AR 72 57 70 60 / 40 90 80 90 Newport AR 74 61 73 64 / 10 80 80 70 Pine Bluff AR 83 66 83 69 / 0 30 40 20 Russellville AR 78 62 78 65 / 10 70 70 40 Searcy AR 76 60 76 64 / 10 70 70 50 Stuttgart AR 79 65 78 68 / 10 40 60 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for ARZ004>007-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBPK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBPK
Wind History Graph: BPK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Midwest
Edit Hide
Springfield, MO,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE