Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Furnace Creek, CA

UPDATE
Temperatures in Las Vegas this morning are about around 5 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday. There is a greater than 50 percent probability of Las Vegas reaching 100 degrees in the afternoon, which would be the first 100 degree temperature this year. Besides that, expect quiet weather with mostly clear skies and breezy southwesterly winds in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday.

Heat will be the main concern over the next few days as an upper level ridge builds over the region. Anomalously high heights will remain in place today while the pressure gradient increases due to an shortwave moving through the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for breezy southwest winds to develop- and while winds will remain un-impactful, they will help mix into warmer air above the surface and thus today should be the warmest day of the week. There's about a 50% chance for Las Vegas to hit 100F for the first time this year.
If it doesn't hit today, it likely wont happen this week as the chance for 100F drops to 10% on Friday and remains below 30% through the rest of the forecast period.

The upper level ridge will break down on Friday and will be replaced with a shortwave by Saturday. In response, temperatures will cool and winds will increase. This shortwave is not robust and thus a dramatic change with significant weather impacts is not expected.
While temperatures will cool from their peak today, high temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through Sunday.
Precipitation is not expected with this system as the airmass remains very dry. The main concern will be winds Friday as breezy south to southwest winds develop ahead of the incoming trough. Most likely, wind will remain below impactful levels with widespread gusts 25-35 MPH expected. Wind gusts in the Western Mojave Desert may briefly touch 40 MPH and isolated wind impacts are possible, however the low level jet only strengthens for a few hours so the window for stronger gusts to 40 MPH is short and would limit wind impacts. By Saturday, the trough moves through and the pressure gradient decreases- thus winds will decrease as well.

Model consensus decreases next week and confidence in forecast details is lower than through this weekend. Cluster analysis supports ridging building back into the region, and dry weather is likely. However, how strong the ridge builds and where it sets up is uncertain, which will influence temperature and wind forecasts.
Temperatures will should remain at or above normal the first half of next week as even the 10th percentile "low end" high temperature forecasts are not below normal. But overall temperature spread is high. Winds may be breezy at times but probabilities for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH next week is low.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 18Z Forecast Package
Southwesterly winds with sustained speeds over 10 knots and gusts over 20 knots become established in the afternoon. Gusts should weaken in the evening, but speeds will remain over 10 knots through the night aside from some lulls in the early morning hours. Winds increase out of the southwest again tomorrow morning with a return of gusts over 20 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 18Z Forecast Package
Gusty winds out of the southwest become established this afternoon with peak gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. These should decrease in the evening, but sustained speeds over 10 knots remain possible into the night. SCT to BKN high clouds filter into the area overnight but should have minimal impact on aviation.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.