Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Furnace Creek, CA
March 29, 2024 5:28 AM PDT (12:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 11:49 PM Moonset 8:42 AM |
Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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FXUS65 KVEF 290906 AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 206 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Gusty south to southwest winds will occur over much of the region today and linger into Saturday in Mohave County ahead of a large low pressure system moving down the West Coast. The system will bring widespread precipitation across our region Saturday and Saturday night, including snow in the higher mountains of Inyo and Clark counties, followed by showery weather Sunday and Monday.
Expect dry and warmer weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed scattered mid level clouds in an arc from northern Inyo County across the northern fringes of our CWA and then southward through eastern Lincoln and Clark counties into Mohave County. Skies were clear in the rest of the CWA, although cirrus was racing in from the west. Surface obs showed temperatures a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in most areas, except for Mohave County where gusty winds were keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Speaking of winds, gusty winds were scattered around our area, especially in and near mountains, although neither as strong nor as widespread as 24 hours ago. A busy couple of days are in store as the main storm system spinning near 40N 131W makes the turn eastward today and drives a plume of moisture northeastward into our area. Precip chances could reach the Sierra as early as midday today, and the main action for most of our CWA will be Saturday as the moisture plume tracks west to east across our area. Winds will also be a concern, mainly before the moisture plume reaches any given area, at which time precipitation drag will act to dampen the winds. The Wind Advisories which were already in place were not changed, but more were added.
For the Colorado River Valley including the lakes, hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory from this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
Confidence is not the highest, but enough high resolution models and other guidance point toward two periods of winds very near 25 mph sustained - one this afternoon and another Saturday morning and early afternoon before the rain begins. Also added a Wind Advisory for the rest of Mohave County Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, immediately ahead of the moisture plume. The rain in the lower elevations should be more beneficial than hazardous, where any periods of higher rain rates should be short lived as the plume marches eastward. However, snow in the mountains could be a different story. Upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for the Spring Mountains to a Warning, as QPF and forecast snow ratios still point to about a foot of snow. Also moved the timing several hours earlier, since the plume continues to speed up, as noted by previous shift. Also hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern slopes of the Sierra and the White Mountains of Inyo County, where snow amount forecasts keep creeping up. Also considered Esmeralda County for an Advisory as significant snow could impact highway mountain passes there, but decided against it as amounts are still just below criteria. Day shift will want to take another look at this and see if the trends continue. All hazards are scheduled to expire by sunset Saturday. Showery weather is expected Sunday as the cold upper level trough axis passes overhead, but additional snow should be neither heavy enough nor widespread enough to justify extending the advisories. Temperatures today will come down a few degrees from yesterday, crash five to 15 degrees areawide Saturday in widespread precipitation, then struggle to rise Sunday under the cold trough.
LONG TERM
Monday through next Friday.
The upper-level trough will continue to push through the region on Monday, clearing out of the area on Tuesday. As this trough moves through the area on Monday, areas south and east of the I-15 corridor will see a 20% to 50% chance for isolated showers and possibly even a weak thunderstorm. A ridge of high pressure will begin to push in over the Southwestern US on Tuesday as the trough exits the region. This ridge will stick around through at least the middle of the week, allowing for temperatures to rebound back to a few degrees above normal.
Unfortunately this reprieve will be brief as yet another low pressure system is poised to swing through the region late next week. Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding exact details with this system due it occuring in the day 6 and beyond timeframe, as well as discrepancies regarding the evolution of this system. 500 mb Cluster Analysis reveal that around 50% to 60% of the variability with this system can be explained by interensemble differences regarding the system's location and strength. As things sit right now, we are looking at another round of gusty winds and the return of well below normal temperatures late next week.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds continue through the morning hours, ramping up in the late morning and afternoon.
Gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range, with a 10% chance of 40+ knot gusts. Expecting a more notable decrease in winds late tonight, possibly dropping below 10 knots at times. During this time, clouds will be increasing and CIGs dropping. The probability of CIGs less than 8kft begins to exceed 30% around 12z Saturday. By the end of the TAF period (~18z Saturday), precipitation is forecast to be in the vicinity with a 50% chance of CIGs below 3kft and 25% chance of CIGs below 1kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Another day of gusty south to southwest winds across the area, with gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range. Moderate to severe turbulence near and east of mountain peaks can be expected.
Should see a more notable decrease in winds tonight at KDAG and the Las Vegas Valley sites. Late tonight, precipitation chances increase and CIG heights decrease at KBIH. Latest guidance has a 30% chance of rain by 10z Saturday, along with a 65% chance of MVFR and a 25% chance of IFR conditions. The rest of the area TAF sites remain dry through 12z Saturday, with SCT-BKN clouds aoa 8kft.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 206 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Gusty south to southwest winds will occur over much of the region today and linger into Saturday in Mohave County ahead of a large low pressure system moving down the West Coast. The system will bring widespread precipitation across our region Saturday and Saturday night, including snow in the higher mountains of Inyo and Clark counties, followed by showery weather Sunday and Monday.
Expect dry and warmer weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed scattered mid level clouds in an arc from northern Inyo County across the northern fringes of our CWA and then southward through eastern Lincoln and Clark counties into Mohave County. Skies were clear in the rest of the CWA, although cirrus was racing in from the west. Surface obs showed temperatures a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in most areas, except for Mohave County where gusty winds were keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Speaking of winds, gusty winds were scattered around our area, especially in and near mountains, although neither as strong nor as widespread as 24 hours ago. A busy couple of days are in store as the main storm system spinning near 40N 131W makes the turn eastward today and drives a plume of moisture northeastward into our area. Precip chances could reach the Sierra as early as midday today, and the main action for most of our CWA will be Saturday as the moisture plume tracks west to east across our area. Winds will also be a concern, mainly before the moisture plume reaches any given area, at which time precipitation drag will act to dampen the winds. The Wind Advisories which were already in place were not changed, but more were added.
For the Colorado River Valley including the lakes, hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory from this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
Confidence is not the highest, but enough high resolution models and other guidance point toward two periods of winds very near 25 mph sustained - one this afternoon and another Saturday morning and early afternoon before the rain begins. Also added a Wind Advisory for the rest of Mohave County Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, immediately ahead of the moisture plume. The rain in the lower elevations should be more beneficial than hazardous, where any periods of higher rain rates should be short lived as the plume marches eastward. However, snow in the mountains could be a different story. Upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for the Spring Mountains to a Warning, as QPF and forecast snow ratios still point to about a foot of snow. Also moved the timing several hours earlier, since the plume continues to speed up, as noted by previous shift. Also hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern slopes of the Sierra and the White Mountains of Inyo County, where snow amount forecasts keep creeping up. Also considered Esmeralda County for an Advisory as significant snow could impact highway mountain passes there, but decided against it as amounts are still just below criteria. Day shift will want to take another look at this and see if the trends continue. All hazards are scheduled to expire by sunset Saturday. Showery weather is expected Sunday as the cold upper level trough axis passes overhead, but additional snow should be neither heavy enough nor widespread enough to justify extending the advisories. Temperatures today will come down a few degrees from yesterday, crash five to 15 degrees areawide Saturday in widespread precipitation, then struggle to rise Sunday under the cold trough.
LONG TERM
Monday through next Friday.
The upper-level trough will continue to push through the region on Monday, clearing out of the area on Tuesday. As this trough moves through the area on Monday, areas south and east of the I-15 corridor will see a 20% to 50% chance for isolated showers and possibly even a weak thunderstorm. A ridge of high pressure will begin to push in over the Southwestern US on Tuesday as the trough exits the region. This ridge will stick around through at least the middle of the week, allowing for temperatures to rebound back to a few degrees above normal.
Unfortunately this reprieve will be brief as yet another low pressure system is poised to swing through the region late next week. Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding exact details with this system due it occuring in the day 6 and beyond timeframe, as well as discrepancies regarding the evolution of this system. 500 mb Cluster Analysis reveal that around 50% to 60% of the variability with this system can be explained by interensemble differences regarding the system's location and strength. As things sit right now, we are looking at another round of gusty winds and the return of well below normal temperatures late next week.
AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds continue through the morning hours, ramping up in the late morning and afternoon.
Gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range, with a 10% chance of 40+ knot gusts. Expecting a more notable decrease in winds late tonight, possibly dropping below 10 knots at times. During this time, clouds will be increasing and CIGs dropping. The probability of CIGs less than 8kft begins to exceed 30% around 12z Saturday. By the end of the TAF period (~18z Saturday), precipitation is forecast to be in the vicinity with a 50% chance of CIGs below 3kft and 25% chance of CIGs below 1kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Another day of gusty south to southwest winds across the area, with gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range. Moderate to severe turbulence near and east of mountain peaks can be expected.
Should see a more notable decrease in winds tonight at KDAG and the Las Vegas Valley sites. Late tonight, precipitation chances increase and CIG heights decrease at KBIH. Latest guidance has a 30% chance of rain by 10z Saturday, along with a 65% chance of MVFR and a 25% chance of IFR conditions. The rest of the area TAF sites remain dry through 12z Saturday, with SCT-BKN clouds aoa 8kft.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Edwards AFB, CA,
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