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FXUS64 KLZK 282308 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 508 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A ridge remains positioned across the upper lvls of the Western CONUS with a deep trof moving off the coast of southeastern Canada.
Over Arkansas, a split flow pattern will be noted over Arkansas with nearly zonal flow associated with the souther stream. At the sfc, a high pressure center meanders throughout the region keeping fair weather in the forecast across the state on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures overall continue their slight uptick with light winds and plentiful sunshine to near climatological values for this time of the year.

On Wednesday, the upper lvl split pattern evolves back into one singular stream at H500 across the CONUS with a developing trof beginning to deepen across the Western region of the CONUS.
Conversely, a slight ridge begins to build over Arkansas. At the sfc, the important transition is found as a high pressure center anchors itself across the Deep South region of the CONUS. This specific high pressure center will be vital as clockwise flow at the sfc around the center of this feature will allow for moisture and warm air to be advected into Arkansas. Wednesday appears to be our final dry day just ahead of an advancing low pressure system Temperatures overall on Wednesday will be slightly warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year.

On Thursday, a progressive upper lvl SWT approaches the Natural State. At the sfc, a low pressure center moves into central Oklahoma with an attendant cold front positioned southward along the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma and Texas in addition to an southeastward extending warm front. The positioning of this warm front will be pivotal in the allowance of warm temperatures and moisture to be streamed northward into the Natural State. The placement of the warm front further northward will allow for a conditionally unstable atmosphere to mature and develop as upper lvl dynamics will be in place to promote substantial lift, additionally in regards to SRH values which will be plentiful to facilitate all modes of severe weather, especially if the instability (warm temperatures) and moisture are allowed to break into the CWA from the south via the lifting warm front. The aforementioned setup will continue into Thursday evening/night and continue into the beginning of the long- term forecast period on Friday as the sfc low pressure center tracks to the east-northeast.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

A storm system will be moving across the region Thursday night through Friday. Much of the impacts look to exit the forecast area by Friday afternoon. Those impacts will include showers with thunderstorms. A negatively-tilted upper SWT will dig across the southern Plains Thurs/Fri above this storm system. Much of the instability looks to be confined near the northwest Gulf of Mexico, where dewpoints will reach the lower 70s, but we will be looking closely towards our southern counties Thursday night for any storms that may potentially become strong/severe.

A trailing cold front extending from this system will slow and stall along the border of the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will set up a low-level convergence zone where showers and storms will develop, potentially impacting portions of south/southeast Arkansas Saturday. Additional upper short-waves will track across the central/southern Plains Sun-Mon producing slight chances for more rain where moisture is present, mainly across our southern and eastern counties.

Through much of the period, high temperatures will be in the 50s/60s, with low temperatures in the 30s/40s. Long term models are showing agreement on an expansive upper ridge and drier conditions overtaking the region towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions in place across the area are expected to persist through the period. Relatively light winds tonight with many terminals seeing S-SW winds increasing to near 10 kts by 29/18z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 34 62 41 52 / 0 0 10 90 Camden AR 33 61 42 58 / 0 0 30 100 Harrison AR 35 61 41 51 / 0 0 30 100 Hot Springs AR 35 61 42 55 / 0 0 30 100 Little Rock AR 36 64 44 54 / 0 0 10 100 Monticello AR 36 62 43 57 / 0 0 10 100 Mount Ida AR 35 62 41 56 / 0 0 50 100 Mountain Home AR 33 61 41 50 / 0 0 20 100 Newport AR 33 60 41 51 / 0 0 0 90 Pine Bluff AR 35 62 43 55 / 0 0 10 100 Russellville AR 32 63 42 53 / 0 0 30 100 Searcy AR 31 62 40 51 / 0 0 10 100 Stuttgart AR 34 61 43 53 / 0 0 10 100

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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