Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lead Hill, AR
July 3, 2024 12:27 AM CDT (05:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM Moonset 5:59 PM |
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 022334 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Substantial heat stress conditions will prevail during this forecast period.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate scattered CU across southwest sections of the state, with clear conditions elsewhere. Heat index values above 100 were noted in the southwest portions of the forecast area, as well as along the Arkansas River Valley near and to the west of Little Rock.
Conditions promoting dangerous heat stress conditions will be in place through the period, as low level moisture increases slightly area wide. Also, well above normal overnight low temperatures will occur, adding to the dangerous heat stress conditions.
A cold front will approach the Arkansas, Missouri border Wednesday afternoon, and will promote scattered thunderstorm development.
Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, the greatest chances of which will be across northern sections of the forecast area.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A lot of changes are in store for the forecast area during the extended term.
The upper level ridge dominating the area during the short term will be replaced by a mean trof across the midsection of the country. A cold front will start to push into the area, and showers and thunderstorms chances will increase significantly.
Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, keeping temperatures more moderated during the remainder of the term. The front will likely stall out in the vicinity of the AR/LA border for several days.
Now here comes the big "if" in the forecast. Some models are bringing the remnants of Beryl (either as a tropical storm or a lower end hurricane) into south Texas...and bring it up into the TX Hill Country / North Texas region over the course of several days.
Models are showing the stationary boundary over the AR/LA border moving north and interacting with deep moisture streaming off the remnants of Beryl.
At the moment - and at this range - this is still a very low confidence event, but we will have to keep a careful watch on how this all plays out. Because under these circumstances, not only would this bring significant rainfall and flooding to TX, but to AR as well.
This is still a week away and an awful lot can and will change between now and then - but we always need to be mindful about the potential interaction of a land-falling tropical cyclone in the general region and any potential interaction with a slow-moving or quasi-stationary boundary.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Once again, lingering CU wl dissipate early this evening with loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conds wl continue thru the PD.
High lvl clouds wl incrs overnight, associated with storms to our northwest. Included VCTS at KHRO and KBPK Wed aftn as sctd storms are expected to form.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069- 113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039- 042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-122-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ052-103- 112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ121- 130.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Substantial heat stress conditions will prevail during this forecast period.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate scattered CU across southwest sections of the state, with clear conditions elsewhere. Heat index values above 100 were noted in the southwest portions of the forecast area, as well as along the Arkansas River Valley near and to the west of Little Rock.
Conditions promoting dangerous heat stress conditions will be in place through the period, as low level moisture increases slightly area wide. Also, well above normal overnight low temperatures will occur, adding to the dangerous heat stress conditions.
A cold front will approach the Arkansas, Missouri border Wednesday afternoon, and will promote scattered thunderstorm development.
Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, the greatest chances of which will be across northern sections of the forecast area.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A lot of changes are in store for the forecast area during the extended term.
The upper level ridge dominating the area during the short term will be replaced by a mean trof across the midsection of the country. A cold front will start to push into the area, and showers and thunderstorms chances will increase significantly.
Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, keeping temperatures more moderated during the remainder of the term. The front will likely stall out in the vicinity of the AR/LA border for several days.
Now here comes the big "if" in the forecast. Some models are bringing the remnants of Beryl (either as a tropical storm or a lower end hurricane) into south Texas...and bring it up into the TX Hill Country / North Texas region over the course of several days.
Models are showing the stationary boundary over the AR/LA border moving north and interacting with deep moisture streaming off the remnants of Beryl.
At the moment - and at this range - this is still a very low confidence event, but we will have to keep a careful watch on how this all plays out. Because under these circumstances, not only would this bring significant rainfall and flooding to TX, but to AR as well.
This is still a week away and an awful lot can and will change between now and then - but we always need to be mindful about the potential interaction of a land-falling tropical cyclone in the general region and any potential interaction with a slow-moving or quasi-stationary boundary.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Once again, lingering CU wl dissipate early this evening with loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conds wl continue thru the PD.
High lvl clouds wl incrs overnight, associated with storms to our northwest. Included VCTS at KHRO and KBPK Wed aftn as sctd storms are expected to form.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069- 113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039- 042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-122-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ052-103- 112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ121- 130.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHRO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHRO
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHRO
Wind History graph: HRO
(wind in knots)
Springfield, MO,
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