Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lead Hill, AR
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM Moonset 2:20 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lead Hill, AR
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KLZK 221719 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1219 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025
New AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Flow aloft remains NW over the region early this Thu morning...with a front having dropped SW across NRN portions of the state. An upper disturbance is passing over this front front in the NW flow aloft...triggering some scattered convection along/north of this boundary. Some of this convection has occasionally generated some marginally SVR hail...which will be the primary threat through this morning until just after sunrise. This frontal boundary and potential outflow boundary will continue dropping SW into this afternoon
At same time
a warm front will lift north from the SW into SWRN AR with a new upper disturbance moving SE aloft.
Additional convection will be possible late this morning through this afternoon across WRN/SWRN sections of the state as a result. By Thu night
the boundaries will drop further SW
with POPs decreasing.
On Fri
POPs increase once again
back across NRN AR Fri afternoon into Fri night as a new upper disturbance passes SE in the NW flow over NRN AR. POPs will remain up across the NRN half of the CWA into Sat and Sun as additional disturbances drop SE over NRN AR into SRN MO. Several rounds of convection look to develop over the NRN portion of the state during this period...with increasing potential for some heavy rainfall for this portion of AR. Will be considering a Flood Watch in the coming day or so if this axis of heavy rainfall becomes consistent in upcoming guidance.
By midday Sun into early next week...chances for convection start to drop south as a front starts to sag further south into AR. A larger portion of AR will see precip potential as additional upper waves pass over AR. This axis of heavy rainfall looks to also drop south
but depending on how things line up
wouldn't be surprised to starting addressing the need for a Flood Watch further south by late this weekend.
Looks like the primary hazard by late Fri...and mainly this weekend into early next week...is becoming areas of heavy rainfall. This may increase the threat for flash flooding...and also river flooding.
While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks limited...a few strong to SVR TSRA will be possible throughout the period. The details regarding the SVR threat will be specific to the daily position of the frontal boundary...and any residual outflows that may reside across portions of the state.
Eventually...the potential for convection does decrease by the end of the forecast as the front drops further south...possibly south of AR by the middle of next week. Drier and more stable air will settle across the region as a result.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025
VFR conds are expected today and tonight. Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will be possible this afternoon but given spread out nature of convection, opted with VCSH at this time. Winds will be light at around 10 kts or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 55 74 58 70 / 10 10 70 70 Camden AR 62 84 65 87 / 10 0 20 20 Harrison AR 51 71 57 69 / 10 30 80 80 Hot Springs AR 60 79 63 81 / 20 10 30 30 Little Rock AR 60 77 62 77 / 10 0 40 50 Monticello AR 64 83 67 85 / 10 0 20 30 Mount Ida AR 60 79 63 82 / 20 10 30 30 Mountain Home AR 51 73 56 67 / 10 20 80 80 Newport AR 57 75 60 72 / 10 0 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 62 80 64 81 / 10 0 30 30 Russellville AR 59 76 61 77 / 20 10 60 60 Searcy AR 58 75 60 74 / 10 0 60 60 Stuttgart AR 61 77 63 77 / 10 0 40 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1219 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025
New AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Flow aloft remains NW over the region early this Thu morning...with a front having dropped SW across NRN portions of the state. An upper disturbance is passing over this front front in the NW flow aloft...triggering some scattered convection along/north of this boundary. Some of this convection has occasionally generated some marginally SVR hail...which will be the primary threat through this morning until just after sunrise. This frontal boundary and potential outflow boundary will continue dropping SW into this afternoon
At same time
a warm front will lift north from the SW into SWRN AR with a new upper disturbance moving SE aloft.
Additional convection will be possible late this morning through this afternoon across WRN/SWRN sections of the state as a result. By Thu night
the boundaries will drop further SW
with POPs decreasing.
On Fri
POPs increase once again
back across NRN AR Fri afternoon into Fri night as a new upper disturbance passes SE in the NW flow over NRN AR. POPs will remain up across the NRN half of the CWA into Sat and Sun as additional disturbances drop SE over NRN AR into SRN MO. Several rounds of convection look to develop over the NRN portion of the state during this period...with increasing potential for some heavy rainfall for this portion of AR. Will be considering a Flood Watch in the coming day or so if this axis of heavy rainfall becomes consistent in upcoming guidance.
By midday Sun into early next week...chances for convection start to drop south as a front starts to sag further south into AR. A larger portion of AR will see precip potential as additional upper waves pass over AR. This axis of heavy rainfall looks to also drop south
but depending on how things line up
wouldn't be surprised to starting addressing the need for a Flood Watch further south by late this weekend.
Looks like the primary hazard by late Fri...and mainly this weekend into early next week...is becoming areas of heavy rainfall. This may increase the threat for flash flooding...and also river flooding.
While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks limited...a few strong to SVR TSRA will be possible throughout the period. The details regarding the SVR threat will be specific to the daily position of the frontal boundary...and any residual outflows that may reside across portions of the state.
Eventually...the potential for convection does decrease by the end of the forecast as the front drops further south...possibly south of AR by the middle of next week. Drier and more stable air will settle across the region as a result.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025
VFR conds are expected today and tonight. Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will be possible this afternoon but given spread out nature of convection, opted with VCSH at this time. Winds will be light at around 10 kts or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 55 74 58 70 / 10 10 70 70 Camden AR 62 84 65 87 / 10 0 20 20 Harrison AR 51 71 57 69 / 10 30 80 80 Hot Springs AR 60 79 63 81 / 20 10 30 30 Little Rock AR 60 77 62 77 / 10 0 40 50 Monticello AR 64 83 67 85 / 10 0 20 30 Mount Ida AR 60 79 63 82 / 20 10 30 30 Mountain Home AR 51 73 56 67 / 10 20 80 80 Newport AR 57 75 60 72 / 10 0 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 62 80 64 81 / 10 0 30 30 Russellville AR 59 76 61 77 / 20 10 60 60 Searcy AR 58 75 60 74 / 10 0 60 60 Stuttgart AR 61 77 63 77 / 10 0 40 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHRO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHRO
Wind History Graph: HRO
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
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