Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eureka Springs, AR

SHORT TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Widespread precip today will reinforce a stable layer that will serve as an upglide corridor through the overnight hours, however the stronger low level jet axis is forecast to remain west of the region. The weaker forcing is expected to keep overnight precip chances rather low but non zero.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Convection expected to develop to the northwest of the region early Friday and spread southeastward into the forecast area by afternoon with additional storms possible along remnant boundaries to our west. The combination likely yields a complex convection evolution, but the background environment of an expanding reservoir of strongly unstable air into the area will raise severe weather potential from Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday night. Heavy rainfall totals will steadily accumulate especially Friday night as a broad corridor of heavier rains develops.

Saturday continues to appear a higher conditional severe threat as flow aloft becomes more westerly and a dryline sharpens through western OK. The strongly unstable airmass will continue to expand in coverage east of the dryline and south of the remnant outflow boundary. Storms will develop along these boundaries amidst sufficient shear to support severe weather which will persist through Saturday night.

A more defined synoptic front is expected to be the focus Sunday through Sunday night and likely marks the most widespread convective coverage across the forecast area. the 12z Corpus Christi, TX sounding sampled seasonally anomalous precipitable water values with this airmass spreading northward through the weekend. The result of multiple rounds of strong convection within a highly moist airmass raises concerns for a rather broad footprint of excessive rainfall through Monday. The holiday weekend will mark plenty of outdoor activities and could expose many to the increased flooding risk. Flood safety aware will be instrumental to public safety through the weekend.

Latest guidance keeps the pattern unsettled through early next week before potential drying by mid to late next week. Temps below normal continue to appear likely.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact eastern Oklahoma the next few hours, but especially to the south (including KMLC). These storms will bring heavy rain, lightning, locally gusty winds, with a few also producing locally severe hail. A few showers and isolated storms may spread into northwest Arkansas the next few hours, though generally they should be weaker. Overall, most locations should stay VFR, though locally MVFR conditions could occur under any heavier storms, especially in southeast Oklahoma.

Storm activity will wain overnight with winds generally remaining northeast or becoming light and variable. Winds will shift to southeast Friday morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop towards and especially after dawn Friday, but there is considerable uncertainty with respect to exactly where and when they will develop. So for now put a generalized PROB30 group, but this may be refined in coming forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 77 64 79 / 20 60 80 60 FSM 61 81 64 82 / 20 20 60 50 MLC 62 84 68 86 / 30 30 40 20 BVO 52 75 59 74 / 20 60 90 60 FYV 54 77 59 76 / 20 40 80 70 BYV 53 73 58 72 / 20 40 90 80 MKO 59 78 63 80 / 20 40 70 50 MIO 53 73 59 74 / 20 60 90 80 F10 60 80 64 83 / 20 40 60 40 HHW 65 85 70 87 / 30 10 20 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.