Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middleburg, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 922 PM Monday...

Partly cloudy and warm with lows near the record high minimum daily temperatures in the 60s.

Showers were weakening and decreasing in coverage to our west over eastern Tennessee and southwestern VA at mid-evening. The main cold front was located well to the west of the mountains, extending from the Ohio Valley into TN. A convective outflow boundary was located over the mountains with a lee surface trough over the foothills where some moisture convergence and lift was noted. However, instability is lacking east of the mountains. Expect the showers to dissipate to our west in the next few hours. Later tonight, some of the hi-res models suggest some renewed showers/isolated thunderstorms over the southern Appalachians. These may approach the western and northwestern Piedmont after 12z. Otherwise, the forecast tonight will continue to be dry and variably cloudy. A light SW breeze will continue. Low temperatures mostly in the 60s, as the April warmth continues.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 206 PM Monday...

A sfc cold front will slowly sludge south through central NC Tuesday as an upper trough lifts across the Great Lakes/northeast. A series of MCVs/perturbations will traverse overhead and will combine with sfc convergence along the boundary to trigger scattered showers and storms.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. As such, anywhere from 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop primarily along and south of the front. Rain early in the day should be mostly showery in nature, but scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. The MCV train will continue into the overnight period, and as such, expect showers and storms to continue through early Wednesday morning.

Severe weather wise, guidance suggests ~35 kts of effective shear will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. As such, a few isolated storms could become strong to severe. Forecasted hodographs show signs of some elongation in the vicinity of Albemarle northeast through Raleigh/Durham to Roanoke Rapids (latest runs of the HRRR depict a clustering of low to mid-level helicity swath maxima in this vicinity as well). Locations along and south of this imaginary line would have the best chance for a stronger storm. Primarily straight hodographs would suggest the primary threat with any stronger storm would be damaging wind gusts or small hail. The STP parameter is near zero for much of our area indicating little to no tornado threat. However, there is a signal for a strong sea breeze at the coast Tuesday which will likely penetrate into our southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills by Tuesday evening. As such, would not be surprised if locally enhanced updrafts/supercells develop along the boundary in which case a quick spin up and/or larger hail could be possible.

The severe threat should largely wane with loss of heating. However, some high-res guidance is a bit more bullish on continuing convection overnight while maintaining at least some instability and shear across southern areas. As such, can't rule out a stronger isolated cell overnight especially if any stronger MCVs trickle overhead. Additionally, the HRRR LPMM field does indicate some potential for locally higher QPF overnight in the Sandhills/Coastal Plain vicinity. Not expecting widespread flash flooding by any means, but isolated urban areas will need to be monitored.

Warm overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s is expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 220 PM Monday...

Rain chances generally stay in the area from Wednesday through Friday due to a stalling front. The cold front should move through the region on Wednesday and stay to our south on Thursday before moving north through the region on Friday as a warm front. Each day there will be a chance of showers with the potential of embedded thunderstorms where the frontal boundary lines up with diurnal heating and mid-level perturbations in the flow. Thus, rain and storm chances are maximized in the afternoon and evening each day.
Rain chances will continue Saturday afternoon through evening, as another cold front approaches the region from the west.

Maximum temperatures Wednesday through Saturday should be about 5 degrees above normal on average, with highs generally expected in the mid 70s to low 80s. The warmest day should be on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 80s in the south. Minimum temperatures should be about 15 degrees above normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s nightly.

The cold front should move through the region Saturday night, dropping high temperatures into the mid 70s Sunday afternoon, with lows dropping to around 50. Monday should be a few degrees warmer as a surface high builds behind the front.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection, with some vsby restrictions possibly developing around 06Z Wed. A 30-40 kt LLJ passing over the area may result in some borderline LLWS criteria at the nrn terminals through daybreak. Sswly winds in the 5-10 kt range should prevail through this morning, becoming variable along and behind a cold front as it moves into the area today and tonight. Winds could be gusty with stronger showers/storms this aft/eve and sub-VFR cigs/vsbys may also accompany the convection.

Outlook: A synoptic front will waver over the Carolinas this week, with an associated chance of convection and flight restrictions maximized each afternoon-evening, and also a chance of late night- early morning IFR-MVFR ceilings.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 22: KGSO: 63/1967 KRDU: 66/1909 KFAY: 64/1963

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.