Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middleburg, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

1) Very cold temperatures are expected today and tonight. Some moderation in temperatures expected Wednesday, but especially Thursday.

2) Bitterly cold temperatures expected this weekend and early next week.

3) A significant winter storm is possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very cold temperatures are expected through tonight with moderation mid-week.

Cold high pressure over the Central Plains will settle into the TN valley today, then be centered over central NC tonight into early Wednesday. Very cold temperatures will be felt with highs today in the upper 30s to mid 40s N to S. Lows tonight will drop into the teens to lower 20s.

Temperatures will start to moderate Wednesday when highs reach 45- 50. This moderating trend will continue and peak on Thursday with a breezy SW wind aiding the warm-up. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s with highs well into the 50s to near 60 expected Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Bitterly cold temperatures are expected this weekend with the expected storm, into early next week.

Temperatures may remain below freezing for much of the region this weekend into Monday. Just how cold the temperatures get will be dependent on the timing of the precipitation Saturday and the precipitation type for the expected storm.

Lows may fall into the teens or even some single digits by Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A significant winter storm is possible this weekend.

With any impacts from this storm at least four days out, will not attempt to get into specifics at this time. However, it appears that a front will be nearly stationary along the Gulf coast through much of the weekend, which should allow for both lift and precipitation.
Strong high pressure moving from the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes into the Northeast would be the continual source for cold air with northerly flow (unlike yesterday when less cold air was available). While precipitation could move into the region as early as Thursday and remain as long as Monday, Saturday and Saturday night currently appear to have the highest chances for any precipitation. Snow and freezing rain are both possibilities, although again, it would be unwise to get into specifics at this time. There is a chance that precipitation continues into Sunday, and if it does, forecast temperatures below freezing in all locations would automatically mean that a precipitation type other than liquid rain occurs. The forecast will likely change between now and the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected over the 24 hr TAF period. A dry cold front push through central NC tonight which could produce a few hours of 10 knot WNW gusts. Any gustiness should subside by sunrise.
Otherwise clear skies are expected.

Outlook: VFR should prevail most of Wed, Thu, and Fri, though can't not rule out a stray shower in the Triad early Thu. A potential winter storm could bring a wintry mix and adverse aviation conditions Sat into Sun. Confidence on details are low but increasing.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.