Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gonzales, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)

The marine layer, ~1500ft, continues to retreat back towards the coast, having lingered a bit longer than expected for the San Francisco Bay and into the northern interior valley, bringing slightly cooler high temps for today. Expect the marine layer to push back onshore tonight. Have included drizzle along the coast as the marine layer slightly deepens as the ridge breaks down as troughing pushes east towards the coast. Patchy fog for interior valleys possible as well. The slight cooling trend will continue into Thursday, especially for interior locations, as a result of the troughing and slightly stronger onshore flow, with afternoon highs in the 60s along the coast to mid 70s to 80s for interior locales. The marine layer builds to ~2000kt and expands further inland for tomorrow night, with more fog and drizzle expected.

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tide is expected to be 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Friday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!

LONG TERM
Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

The trough will begin to move onshore on Friday and pass over the region through the weekend, with the cooling trend continuing.
Shower and thunderstorm potential associated with the trough will stay primarily over the higher terrain to the north and east of the area as a deep marine layer greatly inhibits any thunderstorm potential. However, there will be enough elevated instability for cumulus development and around a 5% chance of thunderstorms across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Thursday night and Friday with lower chances to the south.

The marine layer will likely deepen as the trough passes through, with the cooling trend continuing through Saturday. Afternoon highs temps will only reach the 70s to low 80s for interior location and upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. The onshore flow will continue with breezy afternoon winds. Coastal areas will could continue to see drizzle.

By Sunday, the trough is expected to weaken as model guidance is suggesting a ridge building across the western US into next week.
This will bring a warming trend, beginning Sunday into next week, with a return of some 90s and moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek for some interior areas.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus is confined to the immediate coast with breezy onshore winds with a southerly component and strong gusts through the evening hours. Generally MVFR with some borderline IFR stratus will return to the North Bay, central SF Bay, and Monterey Bay terminals overnight with low to moderate confidence in stratus impacts at LVK and SJC, where the marine layer is thick enough to bring stratus into both terminals but the lower level southwest flow may inhibit stratus flow into those areas. May need to monitor conditions through the night. Stratus should retreat to the coastal areas through Thursday morning and the breezy and gusty southwest pattern winds should resume in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions at present with breezy and southwest winds in place through the evening. MVFR-IFR stratus moves in overnight with impacts expected by 07-09Z. Stratus will dissipate through Thursday morning with breezy southwest winds returning to the terminal in the afternoon. Stratus will return to the terminal area late Thursday night to early Friday morning, right at or after the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Lower confidence of stratus impacts tonight with the large scale southwest flow, as high resolution models tend to keep the stratus deck away from the approach path. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR with breezy northwest winds at both terminals through the evening hours. At OAK, MVFR-IFR stratus should flow into the terminal area this evening with moderate confidence of impact timing, as high resolution models generally aim for the 02- 05Z timeframe. At SJC, there is much less confidence in the stratus forecast. High resolution model output keeps the terminal area clear, but places scattered stratus in the vicinity and particularly to the north of the terminal. This may need to be watched closely during the night. Stratus will dissipate through the course of Thursday morning, with breezy and possibly gusty winds developing through the afternoon. Winds remain northwesterly at OAK but moderate confidence for southwest flow at SJC.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions at the moment with breezy southwest winds at MRY and northwest winds with strong gusts at SNS continuing into the evening hours. MVFR-IFR stratus will come over both terminals within the next couple of hours and persist through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast Thursday morning with winds during the afternoon exhibiting a similar pattern to today's winds.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 417 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Moderate to fresh west/southwest winds in the bays will diminish around sunset this evening. Winds increase again for the next couple afternoons and evenings with strong breezes anticipated, leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts. Light to moderate seas with southwesterly swell will continue into the weekend. Moderate west/southwest winds and moderate seas will prevail over the open ocean into the weekend.

BEACHES
Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Saturday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Friday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.