NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...

No major changes to the current forecast for tonight. Other than perhaps a sprinkle or two across the far SE, the diurnally driven showers have ended. Onshore flow and clouds will keep temperatures in the 60s (lower 70s at the coast) and muggy.

Expect showers associated with PTC Eight to spread northward on Monday, and especailly later in the day Monday. Latest CAMS suggest that it may take a little longer for precipitation to spread northward due to the dry mid level airmass seen in the WAL and IAD soundings. Will try to add a little timing to PoPs tomorrow afternoon to note the later timing especailly into Virginia, but otherwise no changes.

As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Isolated to Scattered showers across SE VA and NE NC tonight and into this evening.

-Gusty evening along the coast.

-Increase in cloud cover across the area.

Latest surface analysis shows a 1028mb high pressure situated just off the coast of New England. Latest satellite imagery shows fair weather cumulus scattered across the region. The low level cloud cover from this morning has deteriorated across the Virginian piedmont and Sky's are now mostly sunny. Across some SE VA and NE NC weak on shore flow has initiated some isolated showers and heavier cloud cover will persist through the late afternoon and evening hours before deteriorating later this evening. Temperatures as of 2pm this afternoon has reached into the upper 70s amd lower 80s inland and across delmarva. Temperatures across far SE VA and NE NC have only risen into the lower to middle 70s because of the extra cloud cover.

Across most of the CWA tonight weather conditions will remain dry.
The best chance of showers will continue to remain across SE VA and NE NC with Pops remaining between 10-20%. Cloud cover will increase tonight as the low pressure system off the coast continues to organize and move north. With the extra cloud cover in place for tonight lows will remain mild across SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures in this region will fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Across the rest of the CWA lows will cool down into the lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Rain chances increase from Mon into Tue morning, with the highest rain chances during Tue so far.

Rain chances will increase across the entire region Mon into Tue morning, as the low pressure area eventually lifts nwrd and into the SE NC coastal area. This low is forming off a baroclinic boundary, but may develop subtropical or tropical characteristics in the next day or two. As of the last NHC update (2 PM), there is a 50% chance of this low potentially forming into a subtropical or tropical depression.

The chance of rainfall has the highest chance from Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. The latest model agreement has slowed the progression of this system slight. However, there is still some small uncertainty with this system. The biggest uncertainity is the track of this system. If the track moves slightly further to the north areas could see higher rain fall totals. Right now, QPF totals ( 0z Monday- 0z Tuesday) are ranging from 1.75" -2.25" across the Piedmont and into parts of south central VA. Across NE NC QPF totals are ranging from 1.75"-2.25" with higher isolated totals above 2.25". The eastern shore at this time is only forecasted to see QPF totals between .75"-1.5". However, stated earlier depending on the track of this system these QPF totals could potentially change. With this high amount of QPF there is a small chance of isolated flooding. The issuance of a flood watch is low at this time.
However, depending on the new model guidance later this evening and into tonight a flood watch maybe necessary where the higher QPF totals reside.

After Tuesday the remnants of this low will stick around the area causing a trough to be situated right over the region. This will allow Pops to remain the the forecast for Wednesday but will be lower than the previous days. Temperature this week will be on the pleasant side with highs remaining in the upper 70s Monday and Tuesday but then slightly warming up Wednesday with Highs in the lower 80s. However, it will feel a little more humid outside during this period as dew points will be in the middle to upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather continues through the weekend, particularly along the coast.

-Temperatures generally remain slightly below average for highs and slightly above average for lows.

Aloft, an upper level trough remains in place across the Southeast underneath a tall upper level ridge extending well into Canada and even to Greenland. Given the very tall ridge, the trough over the Southeast should remain in place through next weekend, allowing for unsettled weather to continue. At the surface, high pressure remains centered in Quebec through Sat before dropping south into New England by Sun. Meanwhile, a stationary front remains offshore.
Given forecast uncertainty, will largely maintain NBM PoPs which show 30-40% PoPs Thu and Fri and 15-25% PoPs west to 30-40% PoPs east Sat and Sun. Will note that given high pressure moving closer to the area next weekend, confidence is low in any precip, particularly inland. Temps begin a gradual cooling trend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thu, mid-upper 70s Fri, and mid 70s Sat and Sun. Lows also gradually cool from the mid 60s (upper 60s along the coast) Wed night to the mid-upper 50s west and low-mid 60s east Sun night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 730pm EDT Sunday...

Gusty NE flow continues across the area in between the strong high to the north of the area, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight to the south. Much like yesterday, the terminals are seeing MVFR type CIGS develop, especially at sites closer to the coast. However, the lower clouds seem to be slightly higher than last night. As such, have opted to bring in MVFR cigs overnight to the terminals, but keep any IFR conditions out of the forecast at this time. Sites will likely see CIGS improve tomorrow morning ahead of the increased moisture from the south during the afternoon.

PTC Eight is expected to move northwest through tomorrow, which will allow an increase of moisture to spread northward into the area during the afternoon. As such, MVFR CIGS will return especially at ECG and ORF tomorrow afternoon. Rain will also begin to spread northward, but the majority of the rain will be late in the afternoon and overnight tomorrow.

No significant changes to the wind over the next 24 hours. NE winds will continue with gusts to at ORF/ECG with some gusts to 20-25 kt at the other terminals Monday.

Outlook: PTC Eight will likely move into the Carolinas late Monday into Monday night. This will bring an increasing chance for rain, especially Mon night into Tue morning. Flight restrictions are likely during this timeframe. Still a chance for showers Wed-Thu, but the degree to which this leads to flight restrictions is uncertain.

MARINE
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow will continue early this week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of the marine area. A few gusts to 35 knots are possible south of Cape Charles late Monday into Monday night.

- Low pressure off the Carolina coast may acquire tropical characteristics as it approaches the South Carolina or southern North Carolina coast on Monday.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to linger well into this week.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions is increasingly likely next weekend.

Low pressure continues to linger off the Carolina coast this afternoon while the surface high to our north has shifted east to the New England coast. The gradient between these two features continues to result in a ~20 kt NE wind (with frequent gusts to 25 kt...and occasional gusts to 30 kt). Seas have built to 5-6 ft N/6-8 ft S. Not expecting much change in the synoptic pattern through tonight, although the low the Carolina coast may strengthen and drift to the NNW toward SE NC or NE SC. Therefore, expect the ENE-NE wind to persist through the night although wind speeds may decrease by a couple of knots overnight. SCAs remain in effect for all marine zones.

The 12z/15 guidance is finally coming into better agreement with respect to the track/evolution of the low to our south. While it could still acquire some tropical characteristics before coming onshore just south of the NC/SC border on Monday...the track has shifted to the south/west compared to yesterday (and even last night). As such, local wind probs have decreased from earlier and now are less than 10% for gusts of 34kt or greater. Still think that winds increase 20-25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt on Monday (and persist through much of Mon night). Will likely see a few gusts of ~35 kt (especially at elevated terminals). Therefore, went ahead and converted the Gale Watches to SCAs for the southern waters. All SCAs run through Tuesday. Winds veer to the E then ESE on Tue and decrease to ~15 kt by Tue evening. Winds remain onshore on Wed/Thu (with speeds of 10-15 kt) as what's left of the low very slowly tracks near the central Appalachians. Seas build to 7-10 ft Mon night and have issued a High Surf Advisory through Tue AM for the NE NC Outer Banks and VA Beach. Seas slowly subside Tue/Tue night and should fall below SCA criteria by Wed. The high rip current risk continues through Tue.

High pressure drops south from Canada into New England next weekend.
This will allow the pressure gradient to tighten across the local waters beginning Fri and continuing into early next week with a prolonged period of NE onshore flow expected. Confidence is increasing in SCA criteria winds during this time with winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible. Will note that the GFS is the most aggressive model, but enough consensus in at least 15-20 kt sustained winds exists between models and in the ensemble guidance to include in the forecast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase tonight/Monday with the approach of the next full moon. This will combine with persistent onshore flow, which will result in increasing tidal anomalies. As a result, minor flooding is forecast for the evening/overnight high tide cycle for coastal areas along the lower Chesapeake Bay and the lower James River. More widespread minor tidal flooding is expected in areas on the west side of the Ches Bay during the Mon evening/Mon night high tide cycle. Have issued advisories from Lewisetta south to Yorktown for Mon evening/night and have extended the advisory for the tidal James/Hampton Roads through Monday night.
With the low track shifting south/west compared to yesterday, moderate tidal flooding looks unlikely.

Tides remain elevated through Tuesday with additional rounds of minor flooding possible (mainly near and north of Windmill Point).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ076-078-085-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for VAZ084-086-523.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ089-090- 093-524.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for VAZ095>098-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632- 634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.