Sunday, February16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sunbury, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:48PM Sunday February 16, 2020 1:59 PM EST (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:17AMMoonset 11:45AM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 1220 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1220 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains offshore today. Low pressure moves northeast along the carolina coast tonight and early Monday. Another strong cold front will cross the waters early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, NC
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location: 36.54, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 161544 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1044 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure system will move across Carolina coast tonight into Monday and will impact southeast portions of the local area. Another stronger cold front will cross the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. high pressure will be slow to build southeast from the midwest late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1030 AM EST Sunday .

Late morning surface analysis shows weakening ~1025 mb high pressure now centered along the Carolina coastal Plain. Aloft, a broad WSW flow prevails across the area with a weak upper shortwave noted over the lower MS Valley. The mid/high clouds have thinned out to the E/SE of the I-85/I-95 corridor while thicker mid/high clouds remain over NW sections of the CWA. Satellite trends suggest that clouds once again thicken up this aftn over most areas for a mostly cloudy aftn, though there might be some partial clearing by late aftn over the NW. Still not expecting any precipitation through sunset. Current temperatures have risen into the 40s, and with a SW wind this aftn, current forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s looks on track.

The aforementioned shortwave is progged to track through northern NC tonight-Monday morning while a weak cold front crosses the area from N to S. Still a forecast of lower than average confidence with respect to how much pcpn falls across the area and how far north the pcpn will get. The most likely timing for the bulk of the potential pcpn looks to be from 7-10 PM this evening through ~7 AM Monday. The 00z/16 ECMWF is most aggressive with pcpn amounts/coverage, showing 0.15-0.5" across much of our NE NC zones, around 0.1" across far SE VA, and a couple hundredths as far north as Lawrenceville to Wakefield. The GFS, NAM, and GEM show (on average) 0.02-0.15" of pcpn across NE NC (highest SE/lowest NW), with little to no rain over VA/MD. The HREF is actually less aggressive than the regional/global models, and only has a few hundredths of an inch of QPF across NE NC with little to no pcpn elsewhere. Will continue to go with a blended solution, with PoPs of 25-65% (highest from 03-12z Mon) across NE NC, tapering to below 15% NW of an Emporia-Hampton line. Forecast QPFs are generally around 0.15" or less. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer, ranging from the low-mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

Cannot rule out some lingering light rain across the far SE corner of the CWA through mid morning on Monday. However, the bulk of the pcpn should exit the area by 12z Mon, giving way to a partly cloudy/dry day. Little in the way of cold advection behind the weak front with daytime high temps on Monday warming into the mid 50s in most inland areas, with mainly low 50s near the immediate coast (with NE flow behind the front on Mon). Some upper 50s are possible across interior NE NC, while highs may fail to reach 50 along the Atlantic coast of the Lower MD Ern Shore. A stronger cold front approaches the area Monday night (but will remain well to our west) as ~1044 mb high pressure builds toward srn Alberta/Saskatchewan. Low pressure is progged to develop across the Upper Midwest early Tue AM before reaching nrn New England/srn Quebec by Tuesday night. The cold front is progged to cross the area late Tuesday night-Wed AM. 00z/16 models have continued to slow down the onset of pcpn across the area to late Tue-Tue evening. Model QPFs through Tue night are slightly less, as the associated nrn stream shortwave (and best upper forcing) misses us to the north, while a series of srn stream shortwaves (and the best deep-layer moisture) will remain from Texas to the srn Carolinas. The models have little to no QPF during the day on Tuesday, with QPFs of a 0.1-0.2" (on average) Tue night. Will trend PoPs downward on Tue, with mainly slight chc PoPs through 18z increasing to ~30% NW/20-25% SE during the aftn-evening. Will maintain PoPs of 40-55% across the area (highest E of I-95) Tue night with the FROPA, with forecast QPFs of around 0.1-0.15" on average from 00-12z Wed. Forecast lows Monday night are mainly in the upper 30s-low 40s. Warmer Tue with a deeper SW flow, with highs near 70F SE with only upper 50s NW (where models . especially the NAM . are hinting at a weakening in-situ wedge during the day). Lows Tue night range from the low 40s N to around 50F in NE NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

The 00z/16 GFS and 00z/16 ECMWF (along with their respective ensembles) are in fairly good agreement through the end of the week. On Wednesday, cold high pressure will be centered over the nrn Plains. The high will gradually build in from the NNW Thu into Fri. The high will then build over the region and off the Mid Atlc coast later Fri through Sat. Will have decreasing chances for rain from NNW to SSE Wed into Wed evening. From Thu through late Thu evening, we could see some srn stream moisture sneak into N far SE VA/NE NC as the flow aloft remains WSW. 00z/16 EPS/GEFS have trended slightly upward with respect for pcpn (and snow) probabilities during the Thu-Thu night timeframe. On average, the ensembles have a 20-25% probability for 1" of snow across our NE NC zones, with lesser probs farther north. Only made minor adjustments to the forecast, with slight-small chances (PoPs 15-30%) of rain/snow from the SE corner of VA to NE NC Thu into Thu night. Elsewhere, dry weather will prevail Thu through Sat.

Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed, in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu, in the upper 30s to lower 40s Fri, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat. Lows will be in the 40s Tue night, in the upper 20s to upper 30s Wed night, mainly in the 20s Thu night, and in the 20s to around 30 Fri night.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 630 AM EST Sunday .

Weakening high pressure is centered over NE NC this morning. SCT-BKN high clouds continue to stream across the area from the SW. Expect high clouds (SCT-BKN coverage) to continue to stream into the area from the WSW through the day today, as CIGs lower to 15-20k feet. Weak low pressure slowly pushes off the Southeast coast tonight, which will bring a 50-60% chc of showers to ECG, and a 20-30% chc of showers to ORF. The other TAF sites should remain dry through tonight. CIGs are forecast to lower to 5000-8000 ft at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF tonight. Even with the slight chc of showers at ECG, CIGs remain no lower than 3000-5000 ft through ~06z Mon at ECG, but likely lower to MVFR during the latter half of the night. There is a chc of IFR CIGs at ECG after 09z tonight, but did not include in the TAF this far out. Prevailing VSBYs most likely remain VFR/MVFR in the rain at ECG. On average, expect a SSW-SW wind of 5-10 kt through the day today. Winds become light tonight before turning to the NE on Monday in the wake of the low.

High pressure briefly returns Monday aftn, and then slides offshore Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday bringing a chc of showers. High pressure returns late Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE. As of 145 AM EST Sunday .

No headlines today as the return SSW flow around the offshore high maintains winds aob 15 kts. Low pressure tracks ne along the se coast tonite then exits off the NC coast Mon with high pressure building back in from the north. This synoptic setup will switch the winds back into the NE Mon, E and SE Mon nite then S and SW Tue as the high moves east. Despite all these wind shifts, latest data keeps winds/seas below SCA levels thru Tue.

Next chc for SCA's appear to be Wed due to a decent CAA surge noted behind a strong cold front late Tue nite.

HYDROLOGY. As of 1030 AM EST Sunday .

Cancelled the River Flood warning for Franklin as the water level continues falling and is now a few tenths below flood stage. The only active River Flood Warning is now at Sebrell where minor flooding is expected to continue into early Mon AM. See FLSAKQ and FLWAKQ products for specific details.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . ERI/LKB SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/TMG AVIATION . ERI MARINE . MPR HYDROLOGY . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 20 mi65 min WSW 6 G 13 49°F 50°F1022 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 26 mi59 min SW 6 G 12 49°F 1021.7 hPa (-3.3)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 29 mi59 min SW 8 G 11 47°F 1022.2 hPa (-3.3)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 29 mi65 min 47°F1021.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi65 min WSW 12 G 15 47°F 1021.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 13 49°F 1022 hPa (-3.0)
44064 38 mi39 min W 7.8 G 9.7 1021.3 hPa
44087 38 mi59 min 46°F1 ft
CHBV2 41 mi65 min WSW 6 G 9.9 48°F 1020.9 hPa
44072 47 mi39 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 46°F
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 47 mi59 min WSW 6 G 8 49°F 1022.1 hPa (-3.1)
FRFN7 47 mi179 min 2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 11 47°F 47°F1021.4 hPa (-2.8)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 48 mi29 min 48°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 49 mi59 min 46°F2 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi64 minWSW 910.00 miFair50°F32°F51%1022.7 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA13 mi64 minWSW 710.00 miFair51°F30°F45%1022.3 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA24 mi64 minSSW 310.00 miFair49°F31°F51%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFQ

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7SE4SE4SE3NE3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW7SW7W6
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NE7NE7NE11NE11
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NE12N5N8N8N4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmNE9NE7E7NE8NE6N6
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N5N5N7NE6N3CalmCalmCalmNW4W7W5NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:29 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.62.63.43.83.83.42.61.60.80.2-00.30.91.72.42.93.12.82.21.30.5-0-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:43 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:20 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.82.533.12.82.31.60.90.300.10.51.11.82.32.52.31.91.30.60.1-0.2-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.