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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 925 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot late.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, diminishing to around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 925 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.

FXUS62 KRAH 080139 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 839 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move offshore tonight. The high will then drift to near Bermuda but continue to extend westward into the South Atlantic states ahead of a powerful low pressure system that will cross the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 136 PM Thursday...

Temperatures have warmed up as expected so far, with most locations in the lower 50s. Temperatures will warm up a few more degrees in the low to mid 50s before sunset. Shortwave ridging over the Mid- Mississippi Valley will build east into OH valley and Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. At the same time, we are watching a few shortwave troughs, one over the north-central Gulf and a second one over Mexico. The former will reach southern GA tomorrow morning and the latter one reaching the central Gulf. There are not a lot of dense high clouds associated with the shortwave in the Gulf at the moment so current thinking is that we should radiatively cool fairly well again tonight with low to mid 30s and upper 20s in outlying areas.
Winds will become light out of the south as high pressure shifts offshore tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 136 PM Thursday...

Mid-level ridging will continue to expand across the region.
Embedded in the flow will be a pair of shortwaves (GA/Gulf of Mexico) that will track ENE over the SE US and over the southwest Atlantic. A potent shortwave trough will reach portions of the central Rockies, Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley by early Sat.
The aforementioned shortwaves will bring occasional mid/high clouds during the day/evening and overnight. It is difficult to tell how dense the clouds will be as the GFS seems overly too moist in the mid/upper levels. Low-level thicknesses will rise some 30 m and with a southerly flow in place, we raised highs a few degrees in the low to mid 60s, about 5-10 degrees above normal. Mid/high clouds will continue to advect in Fri night and the airmass will continue to moderate under low-level WAA. Lows should be warmer in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 305 PM Thursday...

On Saturday morning, a surface low will be over Ontario with a cold front extending all the way to Texas. Cloud cover will increase slightly, but the forecast remains dry during the daytime.
Southwesterly flow will allow highs to continue to increase from Friday, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. The chance for rain will increase Saturday night in advance of the front, with lows only dropping into the 50s.

There has been little change to the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night, which will be the most impactful period of the forecast. The cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday evening, and showers are expected through the day, heavy at times. The early morning Day 4 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center did not include any 15% probabilities of severe weather for Sunday, but did state that "at least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle," which will come out early Friday morning. Models are showing widespread 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, but instability appears to be limited, with MUCAPE generally between 250-500 J/kg. Models are continuing to show the potential for a round of pre-frontal showers Sunday morning, which would lower potential instability for afternoon thunderstorms.
Regardless of whether any severe thunderstorms develop, gusty wind of 30-40 mph can be expected with showers/storms mixing stronger wind speeds down to the surface. Storm total QPF remains between 1- 2", which will help with drought conditions. However, the entire region remains under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall considering the potential for some higher rainfall rates.
Precipitation chances drop late Sunday night, and by the time colder air arrives Monday morning, all precipitation should shift to the east.

High pressure will dominate the Southeast next week, with partly to mostly clear skies expected. The flow will be out of the north for much of the time period, which will keep temperatures below normal.
Monday night is expected to be the coldest night, with all locations below freezing, otherwise lows will generally be in the upper 20s and 30s. Highs will be in the upper 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday, rising to the 50s everywhere Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 839 PM Thursday...

00z RAOBs from GSO/RNK show a steep inversion around 4k feet with 35- 45 kts from around 300 degrees. Latest model guidance has this jet weakening with time and veering to 260-240 degrees, but descending to 1,000 feet with 25-30 kts at all terminals. With surface conditions remaining light out of the 200-220 degrees, this will lead to marginal LLWS through 07z at GSO/INT and until 10-12z at RDU/FAY/RWI. Amendments have been sent to reflect current forecast based on observations.

Previous discussion as of 625 PM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Mostly clear skies will fill in with high clouds tonight and more-or-less persist through the TAF period. Light SW winds tonight will increase to around 10kts late Fri morning. A brief gust up to 15 kt at each terminal will be possible after 16z, but should not the prevailing condition. -Swiggett

Outlook: There is a low-end threat of sub-VFR stratus Sat morning, along with marginal LLWS with increasing low-level flow from the Atlantic/Gulf. There remains a high likelihood of rain and possible storms Sun morning into Sun night with associated sub-VFR restrictions. Strong and gusty SW winds of 25-30 kt and LLWS are also expected during this time. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR Mon and Tue as a cold front moves through. -Kren

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Petersburg
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Thu -- 01:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:51 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:39 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

City Point (Hopewell)
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Thu -- 01:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:39 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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