Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ebony, VA

KEY MESSAGES
As of 309 AM Friday...

1) Areas of patchy black ice possible this morning over the Triad region.

2) Strong and gusty winds are expected tonight into Saturday behind a cold frontal passage. A Wind Advisory may be needed, especially Saturday through mid-afternoon.

3) Cold Weather Advisories possible either tonight or Saturday.
Arctic high pressure will build in over the weekend, with temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION
As of 309 AM Friday..

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of patchy black ice possible this morning over the Triad region.

The Special Weather Statement will be in effect through 1000 AM for the NW Piedmont Triad region. This is where snow/ice linger and areas of black ice are expected with temperatures in the 20s this morning. Highs will reach the 40s this afternoon helping the situation.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong and gusty winds are expected tonight into Saturday behind a cold frontal passage. A Wind Advisory may be needed, especially Saturday through mid-afternoon.

The arctic front will surge through the region this evening. It may be accompanied by scattered rain showers. These showers may be mixed with some light sleet or snow, especially over the northern Piedmont early this evening. No accumulations are expected.

More importantly, winds will shift to the NW at 15-25 mph behind the front, with gusts to 30-35 mph. These winds will drop off a bit an our or two after the fropa, then steadily increase again later tonight and especially with mixing early Saturday. Wind gusts may exceed 40 to 45 mph. Later data will be analyzed for a possible Wind Advisory.

Strong subsidence on the backside of the slowly departing trough axis late tonight and Saturday will result in mostly clear skies during the daylight hours and favor efficient momentum transfer through the boundary layer. Wind gusts should rapidly develop through the early morning hours as daytime heating mixes into the elevated mixed layer just above the surface from CAA behind the front. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 kts should be expected with both NAM and GFS highlighting similar intensity averaged through the mixed layer. Clear skies and abundant insolation, should result in efficient momentum transfer from the top of the mixed layer and may result in infrequent gusts of 35-45kts, strongest from the mid- morning to early afternoon and across the nw/nrn Piedmont. The winds/gusts should decrease/abate Sat night as the high builds in and the pressure gradient from the surface to H85 relaxes.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold Weather Advisories possible either tonight or Saturday. Arctic high pressure will build in over the weekend, with temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday.

A ~1034 mb Arctic high will track SSE from the upper MS Valley to the OH Valley, then continue ewd across the Great Lakes/OH Valley Sat/Sat night. The high will ridge esewd across the Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic/Carolinas as it moves across the OH Valley, with nwly flow advecting Arctic air into the area.

Current projections indicate sub-10 degree wind chills later tonight and Saturday. If the winds are forecast to remain very strong and the temperatures dip a few more degrees from current forecasts, A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. An Extreme Cold Warning may be needed for the far NW and N counties of the Piedmont in later forecasts.

Actual temperatures will fall into the 20s late tonight, highs Saturday only 30-39, and lows Saturday night in the teens.
Sunday will be sunny and cold, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH Wednesday/
As of 1240 PM Friday...

VFR conditions continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching clipper system. Upstream snow/rain showers continue to spread east across the Blue Ridge mountains. Guidance still brings showers into our Triad around ~20Z, KRDU around ~22Z, and KRWI by ~23Z. Not entirely confident any precipitation will make it as far as KFAY, but added a Prob30 to handle for some potential for rain showers later this afternoon/evening. Think the dominant ptype at KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KFAY should remain all liquid rain. However, there is still a chance we could see a rain/snow mix at KRWI (and a lesser chance at KINT/KGSO) for a few hours. Overall though, other than brief reductions in visibility, impacts to airports should be minimal this afternoon and evening.

The line of showers should dissipate through early tonight ahead of a strong arctic front. Wind gusts are still expected to pick up overnight from the northwest and peak in the mid 30s to around 40 kts Saturday morning (highest chances for high end wind gusts at KINT/KGSO/KRWI). Wind gusts will subside later Saturday afternoon, but still mix some even into the evening period.

While traditional LLWS is not likely, mechanical low level turbulence may be possible Saturday morning especially at KINT/KGSO.

Outlook after 00z/Sun: Winds will diminish Saturday night and Sunday. VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.