Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ebony, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 137 PM Saturday...

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows clearing skies across the area. Light showers remain across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain (remnants from the early morning convection) but the rest of the area remains dry. A gradual decrease in dewpoints has been noted across the area with mid 60s becoming increasingly common as of 17Z.
Temperatures generally range from the upper 70s in the north, to the lower 80s in the south.

A synoptic cold front remains to our northwest, and is still progged to move through late this afternoon/early evening. By the time is does, the plume of deeper moisture and elevated PW's will be positioned across far eastern NC. While some isolated shower development can't be ruled out, especially in the immediate vicinity of the front itself where surface convergence is maximized, widespread shower development does not appear favorable. NCAR ensemble and the vast majority of the 12Z HRRR members keep the area dry and aside from some pockets of 10 percent PoPs between 21Z-01Z, the forecast will remain dry for the rest of the afternoon/evening/overnight.

With lower dewpoints arriving area-wide later today, expect cooler temperatures tonight with lows falling into the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 PM Saturday...

* Generally quiet and dry; we could see a round of storms Mon evening/night, but confidence is low.

Sun/Sun night: The polar stream low over the central St Lawrence Valley early Sun will track E over New England through Sun night, as mid level ridging builds to our W, from the Gulf up through the Midwest. Still expect dry and quiet conditions to finish the weekend, as the weak surface front settles to our S within NW steering flow and below normal PW. We should see deep mixing in the afternoon, yielding some gustiness to 15-25 mph. Clouds should be restricted to a few flat high-based cu and high thin clouds.
Thicknesses will be near or slightly above normal, so with decent insolation, expect highs in the 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s under fair to partly cloudy skies.

Mon/Mon night: Mon should start out with some sunshine, esp in the NE, although clouds will increase in the afternoon, with sct-bkn diurnal clouds developing by midday while thicker high clouds spread in from the SW to NE. The mid level low over New England will shift E to just off the Canadian Maritimes, while a second low drifting from the Front Range NE into the Midwest and a potent shortwave rotating around its base helps tilt the trough negative and both deamplify the downstream ridge and push it eastward into the Mid South and interior Southeast through Mon night. This in turn will help nudge the frontal zone gradually back N and NE into NC.
Deterministic models continue to hint at energy topping the ridge and shifting ESE through NC late Mon into Mon night, tracking roughly parallel to the surface frontal zone, and this is also suggested by extrapolation of later hours of the HRRR, which shows fairly high LPMM values over the central Miss Valley to the NW Mon morning. The latest LREF precip probs suggest potential for a dying MCS tracking through W KY into TN late Mon and dropping SE through the Carolinas Mon evening/night, a reasonable solution in this kind of pattern. Based on the uncertainty with this, however, will carry just 20% pops for now late Mon/Mon night. If we do get any measurable precip E of the mountains late Mon, that could help stabilize the air mass over central NC and help nudge the front back S. Expect highs again in the 80s, followed by lows from around 60 N to the mid 60s SW. -GIH

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 215 PM Saturday...

* Next shot of showers and storms most favored Tue through Wed.
Severe potential is possible Wed

* Noticeably cooler and below normal for the tail end of the week

A trough over the central US will gradually migrate eastward into the Great Lakes to OH valley region Wed, reaching parts of the Mid- Atlantic by Thu. Shortwave ridging will overspread the region Tue ahead of this trough. Surface features during this time include a backdoor front settling south from VA Tue morning, along with a stalled front in northern SC. The front to our south is forecast to migrate north as a warm front Tue aftn into Wed as a surface low tracks up through central NC. This lift along with increasing moisture should favor an uptick in shower and storm chances, especially Tue evening into early Wed. We cannot rule out a severe risk given favorable shear and AI-NWP guidance suggesting a low-end threat for our western zones.

On Wed, a surface low tracking into NE NC and a lee trough will force scattered to numerous showers and storms ahead of a cold front aiming to move sometime Thu. The parent low appears as though it will be centered over the OH valley, helping to advance the cold front. A severe risk appears more favorable Wed with deep shear upwards of 50+ kts with a jet streak overhead and instability more than adequate. An aggregate of AI severe guidance suggests a possible risk for much of central and eastern NC, though SPC does note some uncertainty in the overall pattern at this time.

Highs Tue and Wed should be near to above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s north and mid/upper 80s across the south.

Ensemble guidance is in decent agreement that the aforementioned trough will gradually push eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic later Thu and Fri, transitioning to a drier northwesterly flow aloft. Some ensemble solutions, depicted by the latest GFS, bring another shortwave through on Thu such that some low-end shower chances will be possible - though deeper moisture appears lacking.
Highs should trend below average into Sat mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Dewpoints could be in the low 40s by late-week, which will make for pleasant conditions for late May.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 740 PM Saturday...

Wind gusts as high as around 20-28 kts through 23z from the SW, shifting to W, and after that time, we'll see a risk of low level wind shear lasting through much of the night (until around 08z-10z)
with 2kft AGL winds from the W then NW at 35-40 kts slowly declining to around 25 kts before dawn.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, VFR conditions will likely hold through Sun evening, however there is a chance of some sub-VFR fog/stratus esp across the S and W early Tue morning and a better chance early Wed morning. A few storms are possible Mon evening/night, with a better chance Tue night through Wed night, with mainly VFR conditions returning for Thu. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.