Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boydton, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear this evening, with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to around 50 along the coast.

- Remaining dry on Thursday with inland temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80.

Evening analysis shows a 1024mb high pressure over the region keeping the area dry and keeping the showers and thunderstorms far to our south. Skies have become mostly clear outside of some higher clouds. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 60s inland to low 60s to upper 50s at the coast (due to an onshore breeze). Mostly clear and cool tonight with diminishing winds and high pressure building north of the area. Lows will range from the mid 40s to around 50 inland and lower 50s at the immediate coast.

High pressure becomes centered off the southern New England/northern mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Thursday with near to slightly above average temperatures, upper 70s to around 80 inland and upper 60s to lower 70s at the immediate coast. RH values dip down to as low as ~25 to 30% for many inland locations Thursday afternoon, but light winds in combination with the spring green up should keep the fire weather threat in check.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon/evening.

By Thursday night, high pressure will begin to push further offshore. It remains seasonable and dry Thursday night with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s (a few pockets of upper 40s possible across the MD Eastern Shore). Low level moisture begins to increase Thursday night into Friday morning, especially across southern portions of the area, due to a light onshore wind. As a result, patchy fog will be possible with the best chances at this time closer to the Albemarle Sound. A warm front nudges north into the area during the day on Friday, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The best chances for any scattered showers will mainly be along and west of I- 95, with less of a chance further north and east. Overall QPF amounts are light, with generally less than 0.10" expected through Friday night. High temperatures on Friday will generally climb to around 80 to the lower 80s inland and 70s closer to the coast.
Remaining mild Friday night with lows in the 60s for most locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer than average and unsettled Saturday.

- Dry Sunday-Tuesday. Near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, then warmer again Tuesday.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday morning, crossing the region during the day on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the morning into the afternoon, before diminishing from NW to SE later in the day into Saturday night as the front crosses the area. Overall QPF with this system has been trending down, with only ~0.25-0.35" expected on Saturday. The severe threat is not looking that impressive with this system as the main shortwave tracks across the NE states, and fairly minimal mid level lapse rates and only modest shear are present. Nevertheless, will continue watching trends for this system as the models are not great at this range with such details. Remaining above average on Saturday with highs generally in the lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore).
Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front Saturday night into Sunday. With a fairly strong upper level ridge over the central CONUS Sun- Mon, the NW flow aloft downstream over the NE CONUS should allow for a strong area of high pressure to build SE into the local area into early next week. Sunday and Monday will be dry and cooler (near normal). Remaining dry Tuesday, but with above normal temperatures returning (highs back into the 80s).

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 700PM PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 00z/24 TAF period. Mainly high clouds expected through the forecast period. Winds have calmed across the area roughly below 5kt and are variable.
Mostly clear skies will remain across all terminals tonight.
Dry/VFR conditions continue through Thursday with winds generally staying below 10 knots.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Thursday night/Friday morning but there could be some patchy fog early Friday morning with light onshore flow and ahead of a weak warm front. Scattered showers possible Friday aftn/evening, becoming widespread along with a few tstms Saturday as the next cold front pushes into the area. VFR conditions return for Sunday.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine pattern expected to persist through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of and especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend with Small Craft conditions likely.

The front from earlier this morning is now located south of the local waters. Winds have shifted to the NE behind the front, becoming locally gusty at times, especially over the lower Chesapeake Bay. Wind gusts to around 20 knots prompted a Marine Weather Statement over the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower James River this afternoon, but are starting to see diminishing winds on the latest observations. Otherwise, winds will average ~10 knots this evening, diminishing further to 5 to 10 knots tonight.

High pressure north of the area will result in sub-SCA onshore flow Thursday into Friday afternoon, becoming SE 10-15 kt Friday evening as the high translates offshore. Still keeping an eye on the potential for marginal SCA conditions early Saturday morning, with local wind probs showing ~40% chance of SCA conditions across the northern Chesapeake Bay. However, the northerly surge behind the front is much more likely to result in widespread SCA conditions across the local waters Saturday night into Sunday. Local wind probs show a 90+% chance for SCA conditions over all of the waters Saturday night into Sunday, with even some low 34+ knot gust potential (~20%) over the southern half of the waters early Sunday morning. Waves will generally be 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay this week, increasing to 2-3 ft Saturday and potentially to 3-4 ft (locally 5 ft) for a period behind the frontal passage. Seas will average 2-3 ft through the week, building to 3-4 Saturday and 4-6 ft late Saturday into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.