Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
July 3, 2024 1:19 AM EDT (05:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 2:50 AM Moonset 6:21 PM |
FXUS63 KJKL 030340 AAA AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1140 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and humid weather continues for Wednesday to Friday and afternoon heat indices may reach near 100 in some locations Wednesday through Friday.
- Dry weather lasts into early Wednesday afternoon, then the potential for showers and thunderstorms returns and lingers into the weekend.
- The highest probability of rain is on Thursday and Friday and a few thunderstorms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.
UPDATE
Issued at 1140 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
No significant changes to the forecast other than the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows our cool and comfortable Canadian high pressure area from yesterday now well off to the east of the area. This made for a warmer and much more humid day across eastern Kentucky. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, with occasional higher gusts, contributed to the rise in temperatures and higher dewpoints this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. After peaking in the mid to upper 80s earlier, temperatures are starting to fall back to the upper 70s and lower 80s currently. Meanwhile, dewpoints are staying up across the board - in the upper 60s to lower 70s most places. The current forecast is on track for a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split along with patchy valley fog developing after midnight. Accordingly, have mainly just added in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley into the Southeast and extended across much of the eastern Conus as well. The axis of this upper ridge is currently west of eastern KY, but return flow in the lower levels as ushered warmer and more moist air back into the region. PW is currently analyzed in the 1.2 the 1.6 inch range with the lower values in the north and east and the higher values near Lake Cumberland. Dewpoints have risen about 10 to 20 degrees compared to 24 hours ago while temperatures are on average about 10 degrees warmer as well. With the increase in moisture rather extensive, but shallow cumulus has developed across the region with some cirrus passing overhead at times as well. Meanwhile an upper level low was centered near the Manitoba and Ontario border with an associated upper level trough south across the Northern Plains and into parts of the southwest Conus.
Tonight and Wednesday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east across the OH valley region including eastern KY this evening and then east of the area overnight. Upper level ridging will remain anchored over the southeastern Conus to the eastern seaboard. At the same time, the upper level low is expected to move toward Hudson and James Bay and begin to merge with a deeper upper low and trough over Southern Canada. A shortwave trough should move across the upper MS Valley to western Great Lakes tonight and then across the eastern Great Lakes and into Quebec.
Another shortwave trough moving around ridging in the eastern Pacific should emerge from the Rockies and into the Plains through Wednesday afternoon and evening. This shortwave trough should advance east and reach the mid MS to Lower OH Valley through the end of the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal zone preceding the shortwave trough should reach the Great Lakes tonight reaching western Quebec to the eastern Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to the Southern Plains becoming stationary or nearly stationary on the southern end. As the upper trough approaches the boundary should sag to near the OH Valley to end the period.
Dry weather should persist through tonight to midday on Wednesday as the dominance of ridging begins to dwindle. Further warming along with an increase in moisture should continue in southwest flow between departing sfc high pressure and a front beginning to approach. PW is forecast to climb to to the 1.4 inch southeast to 1.8 inch range west and northwest by Wednesday evening and then to about 1.8 to 2.2 inch range from southeast to northwest to end the period. Afternoon dewpoints outside of the highest elevations near the VA border should be in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will allow heat indices to peak in the mid 90s to near 100 degree range. The increase in moisture, daytime heating as well as weak height falls could lead to some convection developing in or moving into the northwest and perhaps portions of the west by late afternoon and evening. If convection does not move into that regions some CAM runs have an outflow moving in that could be a focus for some convection. Limited instability and shear should limit storm strength, some storms could produce brief heavy downpours. Continued increasing moisture, the approach of a cold front and the approach of a shortwave trough and perhaps a weaker lead one should lead to coverage of convection increasing into Wednesday night. Some locally heavy rain is not out of the question in the more northern areas if convection were to train, but the probability is rather low.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Independence Day will kick off the long-term period on a steamy and unsettled note. The weather models are in good agreement at the start of the period with an upper level high over the Gulf Coast states while a ridge axis extends northeastward to off the New England coast. A positively-tilted trough is dropping into the Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped from the St. Lawrence Valley, along the southeastern shores of lakes Ontario and Erie, southwest to over the Lower Ohio Valley and then northwest toward Kansas City.
Model guidance, including the CAMs, suggest that clusters of convection will be ongoing along the Lower and Mid-Ohio River south of the boundary on Thursday morning, likely impacting locations as far south as I-64 corridor (80+% PoP). The chances for a rain-free start to the day are better further southeast, decreasing to around 50% closer to the Tennessee and Virginia borders, where there is decent possibility that the rain threat could hold off until after midday. This is the portion of our area that could see the greatest heating and destabilization.
RAP13/NAM12 show MUCAPE values building to between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg by early afternoon across our southern counties. Meanwhile, westerlies aloft will increase aloft as the upstream trough moves into the Midwest, leading to EBWD of 20 to 35 knots. The final ingredient, a subtle disturbance aloft, will serve as a lifting mechanism. Given the parameter space, thunderstorms are expected to become numerous during the afternoon with a few organized multi-cell thunderstorms possible. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with organized convective lines or clusters though a few instances of small hail cannot be ruled out. PWATs climbing to around or exceeding 2.0 inches and warm cloud rain processes will also favor heavy rainfall rates, though progressive cell motions and dry antecedent conditions should mitigate the high water threat. Aside from the rain and thunderstorm threat, look for a sticky and muggy Independence Day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Convection is expected to wane heading into Thursday evening and early overnight with the loss of daytime heating.
The upper level trough then approaches the Ohio Valley late Thursday night, pushing the frontal boundary toward the Commonwealth as a cold front, before beginning to dampen on Friday and Friday night. A similar parameter space for thunderstorms is expected to develop area-wide on Friday ahead of the cold front. Consequently, a few more strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, again with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. The front itself is expected to cross eastern Kentucky early Saturday before stalling to our south and east on Sunday. PWATs then fall back to near 1.00 inch across much of the region, though modestly higher values may linger closer to the Virginia border. This combined with lingering broad cyclonic flow over the Ohio/Mississippi Valley, warranted keeping slight chance PoPs near and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Kentucky-80 corridor on Sunday. Temperature-wise, after another hot, sticky, and muggy day on Friday with slightly hotter temperatures (upper 80s to around 90) than Thursday and similar dew points, some relief is in store for the weekend as dew points retreat into the 60s though high temperatures will still be in the mid 80s to around 90 for many locations.
Looking ahead to the new work week, additional upper level energy will restrengthen the trough over the Central CONUS, possibly initiating a weak wave of low pressure to ride along the stalled boundary while yet another weak cold front approaches from the west. This will bring the renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
VFR will persist through the period though there will be a bit of valley fog between about 06 and 13Z. This should not affect any TAF sites. Winds should generally be less than 10 kts through 12Z from the southeast to south. Winds then become increasingly southwest at around 10 kts for more western and northwest locations such as KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM through the end of the period.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1140 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and humid weather continues for Wednesday to Friday and afternoon heat indices may reach near 100 in some locations Wednesday through Friday.
- Dry weather lasts into early Wednesday afternoon, then the potential for showers and thunderstorms returns and lingers into the weekend.
- The highest probability of rain is on Thursday and Friday and a few thunderstorms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.
UPDATE
Issued at 1140 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
No significant changes to the forecast other than the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows our cool and comfortable Canadian high pressure area from yesterday now well off to the east of the area. This made for a warmer and much more humid day across eastern Kentucky. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, with occasional higher gusts, contributed to the rise in temperatures and higher dewpoints this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. After peaking in the mid to upper 80s earlier, temperatures are starting to fall back to the upper 70s and lower 80s currently. Meanwhile, dewpoints are staying up across the board - in the upper 60s to lower 70s most places. The current forecast is on track for a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split along with patchy valley fog developing after midnight. Accordingly, have mainly just added in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley into the Southeast and extended across much of the eastern Conus as well. The axis of this upper ridge is currently west of eastern KY, but return flow in the lower levels as ushered warmer and more moist air back into the region. PW is currently analyzed in the 1.2 the 1.6 inch range with the lower values in the north and east and the higher values near Lake Cumberland. Dewpoints have risen about 10 to 20 degrees compared to 24 hours ago while temperatures are on average about 10 degrees warmer as well. With the increase in moisture rather extensive, but shallow cumulus has developed across the region with some cirrus passing overhead at times as well. Meanwhile an upper level low was centered near the Manitoba and Ontario border with an associated upper level trough south across the Northern Plains and into parts of the southwest Conus.
Tonight and Wednesday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east across the OH valley region including eastern KY this evening and then east of the area overnight. Upper level ridging will remain anchored over the southeastern Conus to the eastern seaboard. At the same time, the upper level low is expected to move toward Hudson and James Bay and begin to merge with a deeper upper low and trough over Southern Canada. A shortwave trough should move across the upper MS Valley to western Great Lakes tonight and then across the eastern Great Lakes and into Quebec.
Another shortwave trough moving around ridging in the eastern Pacific should emerge from the Rockies and into the Plains through Wednesday afternoon and evening. This shortwave trough should advance east and reach the mid MS to Lower OH Valley through the end of the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal zone preceding the shortwave trough should reach the Great Lakes tonight reaching western Quebec to the eastern Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to the Southern Plains becoming stationary or nearly stationary on the southern end. As the upper trough approaches the boundary should sag to near the OH Valley to end the period.
Dry weather should persist through tonight to midday on Wednesday as the dominance of ridging begins to dwindle. Further warming along with an increase in moisture should continue in southwest flow between departing sfc high pressure and a front beginning to approach. PW is forecast to climb to to the 1.4 inch southeast to 1.8 inch range west and northwest by Wednesday evening and then to about 1.8 to 2.2 inch range from southeast to northwest to end the period. Afternoon dewpoints outside of the highest elevations near the VA border should be in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will allow heat indices to peak in the mid 90s to near 100 degree range. The increase in moisture, daytime heating as well as weak height falls could lead to some convection developing in or moving into the northwest and perhaps portions of the west by late afternoon and evening. If convection does not move into that regions some CAM runs have an outflow moving in that could be a focus for some convection. Limited instability and shear should limit storm strength, some storms could produce brief heavy downpours. Continued increasing moisture, the approach of a cold front and the approach of a shortwave trough and perhaps a weaker lead one should lead to coverage of convection increasing into Wednesday night. Some locally heavy rain is not out of the question in the more northern areas if convection were to train, but the probability is rather low.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Independence Day will kick off the long-term period on a steamy and unsettled note. The weather models are in good agreement at the start of the period with an upper level high over the Gulf Coast states while a ridge axis extends northeastward to off the New England coast. A positively-tilted trough is dropping into the Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped from the St. Lawrence Valley, along the southeastern shores of lakes Ontario and Erie, southwest to over the Lower Ohio Valley and then northwest toward Kansas City.
Model guidance, including the CAMs, suggest that clusters of convection will be ongoing along the Lower and Mid-Ohio River south of the boundary on Thursday morning, likely impacting locations as far south as I-64 corridor (80+% PoP). The chances for a rain-free start to the day are better further southeast, decreasing to around 50% closer to the Tennessee and Virginia borders, where there is decent possibility that the rain threat could hold off until after midday. This is the portion of our area that could see the greatest heating and destabilization.
RAP13/NAM12 show MUCAPE values building to between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg by early afternoon across our southern counties. Meanwhile, westerlies aloft will increase aloft as the upstream trough moves into the Midwest, leading to EBWD of 20 to 35 knots. The final ingredient, a subtle disturbance aloft, will serve as a lifting mechanism. Given the parameter space, thunderstorms are expected to become numerous during the afternoon with a few organized multi-cell thunderstorms possible. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with organized convective lines or clusters though a few instances of small hail cannot be ruled out. PWATs climbing to around or exceeding 2.0 inches and warm cloud rain processes will also favor heavy rainfall rates, though progressive cell motions and dry antecedent conditions should mitigate the high water threat. Aside from the rain and thunderstorm threat, look for a sticky and muggy Independence Day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Convection is expected to wane heading into Thursday evening and early overnight with the loss of daytime heating.
The upper level trough then approaches the Ohio Valley late Thursday night, pushing the frontal boundary toward the Commonwealth as a cold front, before beginning to dampen on Friday and Friday night. A similar parameter space for thunderstorms is expected to develop area-wide on Friday ahead of the cold front. Consequently, a few more strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, again with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. The front itself is expected to cross eastern Kentucky early Saturday before stalling to our south and east on Sunday. PWATs then fall back to near 1.00 inch across much of the region, though modestly higher values may linger closer to the Virginia border. This combined with lingering broad cyclonic flow over the Ohio/Mississippi Valley, warranted keeping slight chance PoPs near and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Kentucky-80 corridor on Sunday. Temperature-wise, after another hot, sticky, and muggy day on Friday with slightly hotter temperatures (upper 80s to around 90) than Thursday and similar dew points, some relief is in store for the weekend as dew points retreat into the 60s though high temperatures will still be in the mid 80s to around 90 for many locations.
Looking ahead to the new work week, additional upper level energy will restrengthen the trough over the Central CONUS, possibly initiating a weak wave of low pressure to ride along the stalled boundary while yet another weak cold front approaches from the west. This will bring the renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024
VFR will persist through the period though there will be a bit of valley fog between about 06 and 13Z. This should not affect any TAF sites. Winds should generally be less than 10 kts through 12Z from the southeast to south. Winds then become increasingly southwest at around 10 kts for more western and northwest locations such as KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM through the end of the period.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K1A6
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K1A6
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K1A6
Wind History graph: 1A6
(wind in knots)
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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