Middles, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

April 14, 2024 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 10:21 AM   Moonset 1:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 142259 AAA AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 659 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing disturbance and descending weak boundary may bring isolated to scattered showers and storms to parts of the area Monday and Monday night.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms are forecast for Tuesday to Wednesday night and over next weekend. Chances peak Wednesday to Wednesday night.

- Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area through Thursday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s each day, or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

The forecast remains on track. Winds will remain gusty over the next few hours, before diminishing, particularly in the valleys.
easing fire weather concerns. For now, have mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, incorporating the latest trends in the observations.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

As the period begins, an upper level low was over eastern Canada with a trough south into the mid Atlantic and portions of the Southeast. Further west, an upper level ridge extended from the Gulf of Mexico through the portions of the Plains to MT while an upper low was moving across portions of the CA and NV. At the surface, a wavy frontal zone extended from New England to near Lake Ontario to near Lake Erie to the Central Plains with a ridge of sfc high pressure over the Southeast into the southern Appalachians. Gusty southwest winds were occurring between these two systems with warmer and gradually more moist air begin advected into the region. Rather deep mixing was aiding in the momentum transfer to the surface though this was also slowing the increase in dewpoints within the boundary layer. RH across much of the region was 30 percent or less with the winds gusting generally to between 20 and 30 mph. An SPS for this was issued through 01Z, or 9 PM EDT, and this was also highlighted in the HWO.

The axis of the trough is expected to move east of the Commonwealth later tonight and into Monday as the axis of the upper level ridge moves to near the MS River. Northwest to west northwest flow will linger across the Great Lakes to OH Valley regions and weak shortwaves/disturbances will cross the area, later tonight and into Monday. The axis of the ridge is expected to move across eastern KY on Monday night while a shortwave trough in advance of an upper low over the Central Plains that will have moved to that area across the western Conus. The boundary north of the area will approach and should sag to near the OH River if not south of it on Monday before stalling downstream of deepening low pressure further west along the frontal zone in the High Plains to Central Plains. Moisture will increase across the region tonight ahead of the boundary with PW climbing from around the 0.55 to 0.70 inch range early this evening to near the 0.8 to 1.1 inch range near dawn on Monday with the higher values near and north of I-64 and lowest near the VA border. This area of higher PW should settle across eastern KY during Monday afternoon in advance of the boundary with PW averaging 0.90 to 1.15 and generally remain around that range on Monday night.

Recent guidance trends suggests convection should generally remain north and east of eastern KY tonight, with chances increasing by early to mid afternoon on Monday as the boundary nears and weak disturbance or two passes. Chances wane on Monday night, but with the boundary nearby convection cannot be ruled out particularly for more northern and eastern locations.

Ahead of the boundary the airmass will remain mild with lows tonight and Monday night 10 to 15 degrees above normal while highs on Monday with increased moisture should be nearer to 10 degrees above normal compared to todays highs that were around 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

The long term features a fairly progressive long wave pattern over the CONUS. The model agreement is good early on, but then gradually breaks down with time by the end of the upcoming work week and into next weekend, particularly regarding the timing of smaller scale features. A deeper stacked system will start out over the central Plains, with a ridge axis laid out from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley, and southern Appalachians. The stacked low pressure system will move northeast and dampen with time, with a lead short wave trough moving through the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, perhaps initiating some convection near and north of the Ohio River. The stacked low reaches the Great Lakes by Wednesday night, allowing for a cold front to move through the Commonwealth Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring our highest chance PoPs (50-70%) for the forecast during that time.

Short wave ridging will then move in over the Ohio Valley, with temporary dry weather taking hold across the area Thursday into Thursday evening. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper level low will be positioned over south central Canada by early Thursday.
This system will move through Ontario by Friday, with a positively tilted trough aligning west southwest through the northern Rockies. The models disagree on how much sharpness as well as how quickly this trough and inevitably a surface cold front moves through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by next weekend. Have stayed fairly close to the blended guidance with PoPs, with values generally remaining in the chance range (20-40%) from Thursday night through Sunday.

Well above normal temperatures will be on tap through Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures will then cool off to below normal by Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through around 12z, before MVFR ceilings move in from the north and northwest out ahead of an approaching cold front in the morning. These clouds will then scatter and/or raise up back to VFR in the afternoon. West southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts, will continue through 03z, before diminishing to 5 to 10 kts and becoming more from the southwest. As these surface winds lessen, an increasing threat of LLWS will take hold for the rest of the night. LLWS will then diminish after daybreak, with surface winds veering to the west southwest once again.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KA0 sm13 mincalm10 smClear73°F37°F27%29.99
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