Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1045 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also adjust the PoPs and Wx through the rest of the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows a weak sfc boundary exiting eastern Kentucky this evening taking the best shower or storm chances along with it. Storms to the west may yet hold together enough for a gusty shower or thunder producing cell to make it into the Lake Cumberland area towards midnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s most places with some mid and upper 60s in the far east where the rain just moved through. Meanwhile, amid light west winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 50s west but closer to 60 degrees in the east. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as to fine tune the PoPs with the exit of the main line of convection. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

Temperatures have soared into the lower and middle 80s across most of eastern Kentucky at mid-afternoon. However, a weak broken line of showers (stretching from Huntington to Jackson to Whitely City at 1930Z) is shifting eastward from Central Kentucky, dropping temperatures back into the 70s in addition to bringing a brief period of rainfall for some locations. The shower activity is associated with a narrow plume of weak instability (up to around 500 to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE) in a moderately sheared environment (EBWD up to 40 kts) along a surface trough and just ahead of an upper level disturbance.

The aforementioned band will continue to push eastward through the remainder of the evening and exit into Virginia around or shortly after sunset. The overall environment favors modest strengthening of the showers and any storms as they move across the area but the threat for severe weather remains low as mid-level lapse rates remain weak.
Shear will be sufficient for weak supercells or even weakly organized multicells, so strong wind gusts and/or small hail are certainly possible, perhaps nearing severe thresholds with the most intense cores. Once the convection with the leading disturbance and surface trough departs into Virginia around sunset, a second shortwave trough, presently supporting convection over Arkansas and Missouri, will approach tonight with a cluster of convection.
CAMs show this convective activity dying out in an instability poor environment as it approaches the I-75 corridor around midnight. However, the system's associated gusty outflow could still push deep into eastern Kentucky during the wee morning hours. Shortwave ridging then returns for Friday with 850 hPa temperatures soaring to between 15 and 17C while high pressure ridging becomes re-established over the Central and Southern Appalachians. An isolated pop-up shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out on Friday afternoon, primarily west of the Pottsville Escarpment where there will be weak instability, but the threat was too small to mention in the forecast (less than a 15 percent chance). Dry air will become re-established further east with dew points in the 30s and 40s yielding RH values of 25 percent or less for most locations east of the Escarpment and little to no chance for any shower activity. The surface high pressure then departs Friday night, leaving a strengthening surface pressure gradient across the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields as a strong cold front approaches. A ridge-valley temperature split is likely to set up early in the night but may gradually mix out as the gradient strengthens.

In sensible weather terms, look for scattered to numerous showers this afternoon into early evening (60 to 80 percent chance) with a few thunderstorms possible. A thunderstorm or two could become strong to marginally severe with strong winds and hail being the primary concern. Most locations will see a few hundredths up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, though isolated higher amounts cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, it will turn partly cloudy area- wide after 9 PM with temperatures falling back into the 50s to near 60F. Patchy to areas of fog are expected in the favored river valley locales that receive rainfall. There is also a low potential for a brief isolated shower (less than 40 percent chance) after 11 PM along with a few strong wind gusts west of I-75, with those winds and precipitation chances fading with eastward extent through the early morning hours. Friday looks to be very warm with highs ranging in the mid 80s (near record highs). Fair skies follow Friday night with lows forecast to range in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

Saturday morning will see increasing clouds from the west, and eventually increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This is due to an approaching cold front modeled over the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. As the surface low in Ontario continues to lift east into Quebec, the cold front will slowly progress across Kentucky. While showers and storms precede the actual frontal passage, the wind shift and cooler temperatures don't occur until the early evening (8 PM EDT or so). Winds out the southwest could feature some higher gusts north of 20-25 mph prior to the frontal passage. LREF ensemble data shows a 50-70% chances across much of the area of seeing winds gusting at least to 30 mph. BUFKIT model soundings show momentum transfer around 25-28 kts. As the cold front enters Western Kentucky, models depict an 250mb LLJ of 50-60 kts.
However this LLJ weakens as the front approaches Eastern Kentucky, closer to 35-40 kts. With strong southerly winds temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s for most. Portions of far Eastern Kentucky (PIke, Martin, Floyd) could see upper 80s close to 90.

As the front moves east of the area by Sunday morning, temperatures fall into the low to mid 40s. Rain chances slowly diminish through Sunday as the front further departs the area. Afternoon temperatures stand to be 20 degrees cooler than Saturday, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. Strong radiational cooling is favored Sunday night on the backside of the trough with cold air advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies.
Because of those conditions, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning.

Height rises Monday lead to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds.
At night, temperatures cool near 40F under clear skies and light winds. There is a chance valleys decouple into the low to mid 30s, which could lead to another bought of patchy frost.

Tuesday, while the west is getting cooked with a ridge a few short waves will work there way into the Mississippi Valley. The first of which is more of an upper level low just north of the Great Lakes.
The second being in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Conditions across the area should remain fairly quiet with a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s.

As the ridge out west begins to move east some isolated shower chances are introduced to the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s. Much of the area

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026

IFR or worse conditions were present in valleys in far southeast KY shortly before 06Z TAF issuance due to fog and/or low ceilings, but were not affecting any TAF sites. The fog/ceilings will dissipate after sunrise on Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.