Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1235 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

Updated to end the watch early and take out the extra thunder wording in the grids. Did also adjust PoPs per radar and the latest CAMs guidance through the rest of the night. Also, added in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with adding in some valley fog along with localized dense patches. Will also be dropping the flood watch shortly. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025

With the storms showing a tendency to continue strong in the north, have updated the forecast primarily to extend the tornado watch further northeast to include: Powell, Lee, Wolfe, and Estill counties affecting the weather attributes. Did also adjust PoPs per the latest radar and CAMs guidance along with an update to the T/Td grids on account of the obs and trends. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 610 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025

A round of showers/thunderstorms is exiting the region to the east late today, while the next one grows over western KY and West TN just ahead of a cold front. Aloft, an upper low is centered over the norther plains with an elongated shortwave/vorticity lobe rotating around its southeast side.
Thunderstorms will develop eastward into our area this evening as the cold front and shortwave approach. The atmosphere will work to recover in the wake of the afternoon convection. It's already near 80 in Wayne County, but only in the upper 60s where rain is exiting to the east. With the sun getting low in the sky, it's questionable how much recovery can occur in far east KY.
Sufficient shear for severe weather is expected area wide, but the greatest severe weather risk this evening could end up being over our western counties due to more questionable recovery for instability in the east.

Precip will begin to die down from west to east late tonight, but may linger into Thursday to some extent. The significant change in surface air mass should hold off until during the day, possibly allowing for a few more showers or even thundershowers. The forecast does turn dry area wide Wednesday evening, as any lingering showers should be to our northeast beneath the upper low transitioning eastward to the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 643 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025

A myriad of lows surface and aloft to our northeast will be our main influence at the start of the period. The surface lows will be continuing a flow of relatively cool air into our area from the west northwest. A shortwave trough rotating southeastward around the southwest side of the upper lows will pass over our area on Thursday. However, there is some model disagreement in the strength and southward extent of this feature, and changes to Thursday's POP may occur. The northeast CONUS system will depart eastward and surface high pressure will build eastward into our area, resulting in the likelihood of dry weather from Thursday night into Saturday. A warm air advection regime then returns late in the weekend once the surface ridge slips to our east. This will be followed by another upper trough dropping east southeast into the Midwest. This supports low pressure tracking northeast over either the Ohio Valley or the Tennessee Valley early in the new week, with models not locked in on a solution. This presents some forecast uncertainty, but certainly justifies having some decent probabilities of precip (currently mainly in the 50-60% range for each period Sunday-Tuesday).

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

The bulk of the convection cleared out of the area earlier in the night. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms of lesser significance will linger overnight into Wednesday morning. Outside of the precipitation, mainly VFR conditions are expected until early this morning when a period of generalized IFR/MVFR ceilings arrive before dawn along with areas of IFR, or lower, fog - worse in the valleys. Look for VFR conditions to make a comeback by midday. Winds will be light and variable into mid morning then pick up from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts with some higher gusts through the afternoon before diminishing back to light after dark.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.