Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025

Early this morning, the axis of an upper level ridge extended from the Gulf across the Gulf to FL to off the eastern seaboard tot he west of Bermuda. A shortwave trough extended from Quebec into the Northeast to mid Atlantic states to the Central Appalachians while multiple shortwaves/disturbances were moving from the Southern Plains toward the mid MS Valley region in advance of an upper level low and associated that extended from CO to Mexico.
Another trough extended from central portions of Canada to near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border and into portions of the Northern Rockies to Great Basin. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered in the Maritimes with the trailing cold front extending into the Northeast to mid Atlantic states to OH Valley to Southern Plains. Sfc high pressure was centered to the north over Ontario and the Great Lakes while another sfc system preceding the northern trough extended from near the Alberta and Saskatchewan border into the Dakotas to sections of the Great Basin. Following convection on Tuesday evening, scattered convection has gradually been moving from west to east across the CWA overnight with some lighting activity at times within it. The surface boundary has been gradually sagging into northern portions of the area, but is beginning to stall.

Today and tonight, the shortwave will continue to depart the east and northeast of eastern KY today while some mid level height rises are expected this morning with shortwave upper level ridging passing. However, some 500 mb height falls are expected this afternoon and evening as the shortwave that is currently nearing the Plains moves into the Central to Southern Plains. At the same time, the shortwave to its north should reach from sections of Hudson Bay to the Dakotas to eastern WY this evening. The more southern shortwave trough is expected to near the mid MS Valley to Arklatex region tonight as it continues to interact with the trough to its north moving into the Northern to Central Plains. As this occurs, sfc low pressure will begin to organize in the Plains/Central Conus and track toward the mid MS Valley tonight with the boundary that has sagged into the Commonwealth gradually lifting back to the north as a warm front by later today and tonight. With the boundary in the vicinity, daytime heating of the rather warm and moist airmass should yield peak MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range per the 06Z RAP in northeastern KY and 1000 to 1750 J/kg of MLCAPE per the 06Z RAP over the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon. Shear should be limited and a bit more limited than on Tuesday with bulk shear on the order of 15 to 25KT much of the time and nearer to 30 KT along the boundary and in the north. Scattered convection is anticipated to develop during the afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out today with gusty winds and some heavy rainfall. With the warm front lifting north and a min instability during the diurnal cycle a minimum in convection is forecast overnight tonight.

For Thursday, a lead shortwave is progged to reach the Lower OH Valley by early in the day and track across the Commonwealth during the first half of the day. Meanwhile, the main shortwave trough axis will approach toward the end of the period in advance of troughing developing from the upper MS Valley to Central Conus regions.
Meanwhile the associated surface low should pass northwest of eastern KY and toward MI with the trailing cold front nearing the Lower OH Valley by late Thursday becoming wavy. Daytime heating on Thursday into the upper 70s to mid 80s should lead to SBCAPE and MUCAPE on the order of 1000 to about 2000 J/kg per the 00Z HRRR mean with shear possibly enough for some storm organization, but on the lower end in the 20 to 30KT range. Fairly steep low level lapse rates and some mid level dry air may be sufficient for a few strong to damaging wind gusts. SPC has placed eastern KY. Storms may be bit progressive with 0-6km mean winds around 25KT though any training of storms could result in localized heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025

The forecast period begins with the area in the warm sector of an approaching surface low. Showers and storms ahead of the associated cold front are to be expected beginning late Thursday and continuing through the remainder of the weekend. A secondary cold front moves through the region Friday into Saturday, leading to a continued threat of showers and storms. Models have begun to diverge for how the rest of the period will play out. The GFS has surface high pressure building into the region quickly Saturday evening leading to drier weather for the rest of the weekend into early next week.
The ECMWF is the opposite as it keeps PoP chances over the area through the weekend into early next week. Opted to remain with the NBM since there's been a degradation in forecast confidence since this time yesterday.

Overall, the forecast period is forecast to be a rather wet and stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid-70s to low-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low- 60s. A relative cool-down is expected for next weekend behind a departing cold front but will warm back into the upper-70s for Monday and continuing for the rest of the week.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025

Following evening showers and storms, isolated to scattered convection has redeveloped to an extent generally from near Rowan County down to near Lake Cumberland at this point. At issuance time may observation sites were reporting VFR, though a few instances of MVFR or lower were reported especially where any fog had developed during breaks in the clouds. Coverage of convection over the next few hours should be greatest generally near or south of a KJKL to KSJS line, before activity diminishes toward 12Z. Within any heavier showers or thunderstorms, localized MVFR or IFR or worse conditions are anticipated. Otherwise, outside of heavier precipitation, mainly VFR conditions are expected initially. However, as the lower levels cool and saturate, prevailing MVFR and even some areas of IFR should develop for most locations between 07Z and 10Z. Some locations nearer to the TN border may remain VFR. An overall improvement to prevailing VFR ceilings is anticipated between 12Z and 18Z. As Wednesday progresses, an increase in coverage of showers/thunderstorms is forecast between 17Z and 00Z during peak heating, though there remains less confidence as to how this evolves. Some PROB30 groups were used to cover chances for thunder for the more southern TAF sites during the first 6 hours and during the last 12 hours of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.